TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[mvossman]

If all this is is a straight up deal, I’d agree with you.  My assumption is Miami would pay at least their 2023 pick in such a deal.  Having that as a chip now or in the summer is a game changer.  It isn’t only about DR vs. THJ (and paying an extra year).  It is about the other things getting a pick could unlock.

I also think too much is made of DR’s current season and not enough of his total body of work.  Very few of us thought Dinwiddie would contribute anything here because most here had a myopic view of who he was based on what he was producing in DC.  Turns out a change of scenery and playing with Luka changed his efficiency pretty dramatically.  It isn’t hard to look at DR’s recent history and project the same thing as we could looking back at Dinwiddie’s pre-injury season in Brooklyn.  Will DR ever become a good defender…no.  But Tim hasn’t been anything special historically either.  I think the two players would be roughly equivalent here and Miami would have to pay something for us to eat the extra year of what turned out to be bloated contracts for both players.

I did mention the pick.  I just don't think its worth it.  The real disagreement is on the suggestion that DR and Timmy are equivalent players.  His profile fits Bertans much more than it does Timmy, both offensively and defensively.  He shoots one 2 pointer a game.  He is a true 3 point specialist on offense just like Bertans.  I'm sure he will have more spacing than he did at Miami, but it didn't really seem to make that big of a difference for Bertans.  I'm really skeptical we are going to utilize him any better than we did Bertans.

On defense, Timmy has made real strides this season.  With a coach and system that is more focused on defense than what he is used to, he seems to have reached a point where he is no longer a negative on that side of the court.  DR already has a coach and system focused on defense, and he has a lot more help around him that what he will have here.  

Its hard for me to see DR not go down the same road as Bertans.  He will get used sparingly as a three point specialist off the bench and continue to be one of the worst non max contracts in the NBA (just like Bertans).  Timmy on the other hand has been creeping up towards his offensive production of a few years ago while not being a negative on defense.  I think that contract is approaching neutral value and might even be an asset by the end of the season.  

I understand the interest in taking a step back to take a step forward, but this feels more like taking a permanent step back.