TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[DanSchwartzgan]

FWIW, a first round pick is thought to be worth about $20mm of salary.  

I mention this because the excess between THJ and Robinson is about that $20mm in extra salary that last season.  If it were the summer of 25 and Miami wanted to offload Robinson into another team’s space, it would cost about a first rounder.  I’m not sure how to allow for the present value difference between a near pick and distant salary, but I think the 2023 first is about the right neighborhood.

I’ll repeat what I’ve said a couple of times now.  I don’t think you do this deal to stockpile for the summer.  I think you do it to give you the assets for a deal at the TDL.  One other note, if this leads to a larger deal that brings in Robinson and $30-something million star (I’ve been using Siakam as my example), the size of the deal and the $2.7mm spread between THJ’s higher current salary and Robinson’s lower current salary makes trade matching easier.  If the Mav’s somehow could trade straight up for Siakam, they’d have to send out $28.24mm.  But, if it is part of a bigger swap with THJ for Robinson included the additional Mav salary needed drops to $22.16mm.