TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[F Gump]

Like I said originally, this just feels like a Dallas trade.  As McMahon said, you have to do something to make things work next to Luka.  Those two picks won’t really matter if you hold onto them and lose Luka in the process.

I do think Ayton can punish smaller players.  His mid-range game is fantastic and would crush the strategy of doubling Luka.  Imagine him in the short roll position with his ability to shoot a mid-range, post up or pass to the wing.  The percentages he’d shoot in those situations would be too high for teams to even think about taking the ball out of Luka’s hands.  He sets really strong picks, better than Powell I think (I probably set better picks than Wood), which would make Luka’s life much easier.  If you are an opposing team and Dallas gets a big switched onto Luka and a small switched onto Ayton, what are you going to do.  You have to bring at least one double team.  But who do you double?  And, you’ve just left someone wide open in the corner.  We’ve got to get some more paint touches and inside-out offense and Ayton’s post game and passing helps with that too.  Offense would be fantastic and we haven’t even started on the defensive advantages Ayton brings.

Something that might help you feel better about such a deal would be Dallas shipping Crowder to a third team for something younger rather than keeping him.  There are some interesting rumors out there.  Philly seems like a very logical destination for Crowder.  The rumor there is Thybulle, Niang and 28th pick in the 2021 draft Jaden Springer who’s calling card is on-ball defense.  Niang and Thybulle are both free agents this summer, but you’d have RFA rights on Thybulle.  In my mind you are replacing Good on-ball D in Bullock with Great on-ball D with Thybulle.  Yeah, you hope Bullock will hit the occasional three and you know Thybulle won’t.  I’m not sure knowing he won’t isn’t better than hoping Bullock will and being disappointed.  Niang is a dead eye shooter from three.  Springer is an intriguing defensive prospect who moves the ball well but hasn’t developed much of an outside shot…yet.

This is 16 players, so someone has to go.  You haven’t touched a single starter except for the Wood/Ayton swap.  You haven’t touched Maxi or Green or Hardy either (and added a young prospect in Springer to the Hardy/Green youth movement).  You replaced Bullock with Thybulle, Wood with Ayton and gave yourself another shooter at PF in place of Powell (Maxi becomes the backup C and won’t be required to play a ton of minutes since Ayton will get 28-30).  You can go all in on a nasty defensive lineup with DFS, Green and Thybulle joining Luka and either of the centers.  You’ve also preserved the ability to play 5-out with Maxi, Luka and more than enough shooters.

Ayton.    Maxi.         McGee
DFS.      Niang.        Bertans
THJ.       Thybulle.    Frank/Pinson
SD.        Green.       Hardy
Luka.     Walker.       Springer

This is interesting analysis of the idea of
Ayton-Crowder FOR
Wood, Powell, Bullock, picks

While the Philly inclusion is also interesting, I am stepping past because I don't think it fits Sixers' biggest trade incentive, which would be to slip below the tax line. They are tantalizingly close, and getting tax free is how Morey typically operates at TDL. The 3-for-1 doesn't do the trick, and in fact takes them in the wrong direction by maybe another mill or more (after factoring in the cost of filling those empty slots). I do think there might be a window of opportunity there to land a talent, and it might be something to tack onto a different primary deal, but only if the cap result can be different for the Sixers.

As to the main course, I am hesitant on Ayton. He's definitely better than Wood, of course. But my recollection is that he was played off the floor in the playoffs -- so did I misremember? I don't want my max-salary center to be unplayable when it counts, even if he is generally better defensively than Wood. OTOH, if he can legit guard all over the floor (like Bam, say), then I think he'd be worth the investment including picks.

As a side note, I think the Mavs definitely need a TWO-way wing (imo Crowder is not close to being that guy) and another really good playmaker (ala Brunson) in a big way, and if I had solutions for those as well, using my assets for a C would probably be my last choice of the 3. So if I was shopping, that would be part of my thinking while considering this.