TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[KillerLeft]

I do think Ayton can punish smaller players.  His mid-range game is fantastic and would crush the strategy of doubling Luka.  Imagine him in the short roll position with his ability to shoot a mid-range, post up or pass to the wing.  The percentages he’d shoot in those situations would be too high for teams to even think about taking the ball out of Luka’s hands.  He sets really strong picks, better than Powell I think (I probably set better picks than Wood), which would make Luka’s life much easier.  If you are an opposing team and Dallas gets a big switched onto Luka and a small switched onto Ayton, what are you going to do.  You have to bring at least one double team.  But who do you double?  And, you’ve just left someone wide open in the corner.  We’ve got to get some more paint touches and inside-out offense and Ayton’s post game and passing helps with that too.  Offense would be fantastic and we haven’t even started on the defensive advantages Ayton brings.

There's a lot of truth here. Thanks for the analysis. 

Where I'll push back a little is that while I agree with you (after reading about and watching a little more Ayton) that his mid-range game is pretty polished (he's like the quintessential 2012 center, which I don't mean as a dig) and that this would be effective at beating the traps Luka sees at times...I think what we've seen lately is that most teams don't use that tactic so much anymore. The book on how to beat the Mavs seems to be:

1) Switch every Luka ball screen - don't give him a sliver of daylight to drive (off of the action), lob to a rim runner or throw that behind the back to a popper. This seems to have been rule #1 in the "how to defend the Mavs" handbook since Carlisle's last season, and each year more and more teams are catching on. 

(FWIW, I totally agree about the screens - they are underrated, and might help the Mavs impose their offensive design on teams a bit more, regardless of how the other team is defending)

2) After the switch, play Luka 1-on-1. Yeah, he might hang 40-50 on you, but in the meantime, nobody else is touching the ball, nobody else is in rhythm, he's going to dribble for at least 15-20 seconds every possession and you're at least going to be able to keep it close. If you can, implement steps #1 and #2 without helping off of his shooters. 

This is why the Mavs tend to end up playing so much 5-out at the ends of seasons, because it makes driving much easier for Luka which, in turn, makes it nearly impossible for the defense not to help off of the shooters - Add ONE offensive body (and his defender) within 10 feet of the basket and that defender can make both the driving lanes and passing lanes much more risky and less predictable. 

Now, is this state of affairs due to nobody else on the team being good enough to present a more diverse solution for this defensive approach? Is it that the coach hasn't implemented a better plan for such circumstances? Is Luka taking it upon himself to dominate the ball for entire games in these situations out of some young mindset that "nobody else gives us the opportunity to score here that I do"? I would submit that probably a combo of all three is to blame. Just my opinion. 

What I think the Mavs need, above all else, is someone who A) can function in the Mavs' already established offensive system (the greatness that is causing #1 and #2 but that we can't really see anymore because of #1 and #2) but who B) offers an ALTERNATIVE to Luka going 1-on-1 against whomever has switched onto him. What we've gotten instead is a convoluted series of switches designed to allow Luka to choose who he gets to try to beat off of the dribble. (I think Ayton would be amazing in capacity A, but feel he would be underwhelming in capacity B, to the point where Luka wouldn't even give him the ball). 

I, personally, haven't seen an indication yet that Ayton can take a man down into the post, call for the ball and dominate. I could be wrong, but that's my issue. Since he also can't take his man all the way above the break at the wing or to corner, I think he's basically going to bring some of the same issues (along with some of the same underrated strengths) Powell does. 

And I don't mean this to be a dig on Ayton at all. You and some others really have moved the needle on my opinion of him. I agree with almost everything you said above.