12-21-2022, 08:50 AM
Keith Smith at Spotrac has an occasional series called "Next Contract" where he talks through interesting cases. Often there is something about their situation that makes for a challenging situation either for their team or for the player. Profiles have included:
Jaylen Brown (no way he signs an extension, so he'll hit the UFA market)
Siakam (He has all sorts of options for big money as he's been All-NBA twice)
Turner (Is eligible for a rare 'renegotiate and trade' deal since Indy has cap room)
Other write-ups include Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell, Jerami Grant and Kyle Kuzma
The Turner thing is fascinating. Note that he's no longer with Duffy, but changed to CAA. Reading these, you start to understand why Siakam and Kuzma might be on the trade market as their teams might not value them the same way they value themselves. He also writes about my guy Poeltl. Smith thinks Poeltl will make more than he's eligible to extend for with SA (and certainly more than he can extend and trade for). So, he'll probably wait until the summer to do anything. His UFA status would reduce the value of a trade for SA. Below are Smith's comps and where he thinks Poeltl will land financially this summer:
That leaves us to finding recent comps to work off of. We already said that the $14.5 million per year that Poeltl could make via the Dinwiddie Extension seems a bit low. So, let’s look at the next few players on the highest paid centers list.
Now, we have our comp list and their average salaries on their current deals. If we factor in a slight upward-ness in salary, because the cap is climbing, we can land at a what seems like a fair value for Poeltl of about $18 million AAV.
One last thing to note, Mitchell Robinson’s contract is frontloaded and descends year over year. That could be a smart structure for the Spurs to take if they re-sign Poeltl. They won’t likely need the extra cap space in the next year or two, but could down the line. And having Poeltl on a lower number in the further out season will keep him a very tradable asset.
A reasonable middle ground deal could look something like this for Poeltl:
SUMMARY
It doesn’t really make sense for Jakob Poeltl to sign a Dinwiddie Extension right now. He’d likely be leaving money on the table. If the San Antonio Spurs could get him to ink that sort of extension, that would be a major win for them.
Instead, it makes sense for both sides to let things play out. If the Spurs want to go full cap space, they can just let Poeltl leave this summer. If they see him as a part of the future, they can still beat any offer that any other team can offer him. And, they can do so while keeping Poeltl on a still-tradable contract too.
Rim protectors that can rebound and aren’t a complete zero on offense, are very valuable players. Poeltl is set to be one of the better free agents available this summer, in addition to being one of the top available centers. That’s going to get Poeltl paid, whether by the Spurs or someone else.
Jaylen Brown (no way he signs an extension, so he'll hit the UFA market)
Siakam (He has all sorts of options for big money as he's been All-NBA twice)
Turner (Is eligible for a rare 'renegotiate and trade' deal since Indy has cap room)
Other write-ups include Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell, Jerami Grant and Kyle Kuzma
The Turner thing is fascinating. Note that he's no longer with Duffy, but changed to CAA. Reading these, you start to understand why Siakam and Kuzma might be on the trade market as their teams might not value them the same way they value themselves. He also writes about my guy Poeltl. Smith thinks Poeltl will make more than he's eligible to extend for with SA (and certainly more than he can extend and trade for). So, he'll probably wait until the summer to do anything. His UFA status would reduce the value of a trade for SA. Below are Smith's comps and where he thinks Poeltl will land financially this summer:
That leaves us to finding recent comps to work off of. We already said that the $14.5 million per year that Poeltl could make via the Dinwiddie Extension seems a bit low. So, let’s look at the next few players on the highest paid centers list.
- Jarrett Allen - $20 million AAV
- Myles Turner - $18 million AAV
- Jusuf Nurkic - $17.5 million AAV
- Steven Adams - $17.5 million AAV (note: this is Adams’ current deal, not his recent extension)
- Jonas Valanciunas - $15 million AAV
- Mitchell Robinson - $15 million AAV
Now, we have our comp list and their average salaries on their current deals. If we factor in a slight upward-ness in salary, because the cap is climbing, we can land at a what seems like a fair value for Poeltl of about $18 million AAV.
One last thing to note, Mitchell Robinson’s contract is frontloaded and descends year over year. That could be a smart structure for the Spurs to take if they re-sign Poeltl. They won’t likely need the extra cap space in the next year or two, but could down the line. And having Poeltl on a lower number in the further out season will keep him a very tradable asset.
A reasonable middle ground deal could look something like this for Poeltl:
- 2023-24: $20,500,000
- 2024-25: $18,860,000
- 2025-26: $17,220,000
- 2026-27: $15,580,000
- Total: four years, $72,160,000
- 2023-24: $20,500,000
SUMMARY
It doesn’t really make sense for Jakob Poeltl to sign a Dinwiddie Extension right now. He’d likely be leaving money on the table. If the San Antonio Spurs could get him to ink that sort of extension, that would be a major win for them.
Instead, it makes sense for both sides to let things play out. If the Spurs want to go full cap space, they can just let Poeltl leave this summer. If they see him as a part of the future, they can still beat any offer that any other team can offer him. And, they can do so while keeping Poeltl on a still-tradable contract too.
Rim protectors that can rebound and aren’t a complete zero on offense, are very valuable players. Poeltl is set to be one of the better free agents available this summer, in addition to being one of the top available centers. That’s going to get Poeltl paid, whether by the Spurs or someone else.