TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[mvossman]

Oh, no argument, whatsoever. Chalk it up to whatever you want, but I really think we talk about what players might be worth in the trade market with very, very little actual knowledge of factors like how that player is perceived, how different teams value different skillsets in general, how many players of certain skillset types are actually available, to what degree a rumored player is actually available (meaning it might take a crazy offer to actually get it done), which players/agents want to work with which teams, what effect on trade negotiations future contractual obligations (and potential wishes from the player, if the current one is ending soon) might have, etc, etc, etc. We have educated guess about all of the above, but it's not like we're working the phones for a living. 

I also think fans tend to look at trades backwards, sort of 75/25 from the teams' perspective. My personal opinion is that it's actually about 60/40 about the wishes of the players/teams. I've even heard several executives use the word "transfer" instead of "trade," as if that's what they call it in the business. Just think about the implications of that for a few minutes. For me, some interesting and significant perspective was gained that way. 

All we can do is speculate. The last few years have seen so many deals that shocked us with trade costs (in both directions). I think the most pointless thing we do is argue (not to be confused with simply having an opinion) about whether or not a trade is possible. I get that there are some deals suggested that are straight up ridiculous, but once you get to a realm of conversation that's in any way realistic, we really don't know to any degree of certainty just how realistic they might be.

Agreed, especially the 75/25 by fans.  It gets abused a lot.  I call out others and try to avoid it myself, but I have been guilty multiple times.  It's hard to find trades that make sense to both sides, and a lot of the trades we see don't really seem to do that.