TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think this is fair, and I think I'd do it, with reluctance. 

BUT (and this will hopefully make my "trade this pick" argument more clear), I'd first TRY to just use #26 (no swap) to get it done. And that's specifically because I value the draft, ironically. I don't want to complicate FUTURE drafts in such a deal if I can avoid it, personally. 

Do you think that ruins it for IND? Or, what if this pick (#26) is the one that changes hands, and the right to swap a future pick is included? I would (slightly) prefer either of those options to yours, although I think you've got a good sense of the valuation here.

Who knows what the true value here is.  Certainly not me.  

I don't think Indy nor the half dozen teams looking for a center care where our preferences lie.  The cost is the cost.  You either pay it or you don't.  I get the desire (especially this time of year), to avoid complicating future drafts.  But Turner is a massive upgrade to what we had.  Not a single piece of the outgoing contributed anything to the WCF's run and we are also essentially adding another player in THJ for all intents and purposes.  That is a lot of incremental improvement.

So, we add Turner and Hardaway to the six who brought logged major minutes for two complimentary pieces a pick swap and 2025?  I wouldn't let 2025 stand in the way of that.  I'd do it and sign the extension with Turner, sign Brunson and call it a day.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think Indy nor the half dozen teams looking for a center care where our preferences lie.  The cost is the cost.

Totally agree. No argument. 

I was just looking for your opinion on how much worse my tweak to your guess might appear to IND, value-wise.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Totally agree. No argument. 

I was just looking for your opinion on how much worse my tweak to your guess might appear to IND, value-wise.

I don't think Indy can integrate #6, #26 and #31 all at once.  The swap is kind of a "fake first" for the purpose of selling this to the fans.  The prize, to me, is the 2025 pick depending on protections.  It has much more upside than adding something Indy kind of already has...the 26th pick outright.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think Indy can integrate #6, #26 and #31 all at once.

This is a good point, thanks.

[F Gump]

.... Indy can't take on any additional salary before the new season.  They are right up against the tax line for 21/22.  It can be done after the draft if Indy takes back less salary.  If Indy is taking back extra salary, it will have to be completed after the moratorium.  

At the right price, I think Turner makes sense. If he's walking in a year, there would be some urgency on Indy, and he could probably navigate his way to a preferred place if he would ONLY extend with X but not with A, B. C D, or E.

The Mavs could easily cobble together a "Pick plus Expiring" package, as needed. 

Are you sure this is a June limitation on Indy?

If you are thinking they are in peril of triggering tax, AFAIK the general rule is that tax is calculated based on season's end in April with some minor alterations later. (You might have some bonuses earned from the post-season results. And trade bonuses on June trades would be added to the calculation, but not seeing any mention that MT has one).

Or are they operating with a hard cap? From what I am reading, the Pacers aren't hard capped, but that could be wrong. However, they are a good ways from that limit.

[Kammrath]

My guess is a 26 for 31 pick swap, our next available first, Green and Powell.

I would NOT like that deal at all. Not one bit. Losing on JG, a future 1st, AND dropping spots for a guy I am not sold on??

NO. THANK. YOU.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/_TradeDeadline/statu...5816937472

[mvossman]

Who knows what the true value here is.  Certainly not me.  

I don't think Indy nor the half dozen teams looking for a center care where our preferences lie.  The cost is the cost.  You either pay it or you don't.  I get the desire (especially this time of year), to avoid complicating future drafts.  But Turner is a massive upgrade to what we had.  Not a single piece of the outgoing contributed anything to the WCF's run and we are also essentially adding another player in THJ for all intents and purposes.  That is a lot of incremental improvement.

So, we add Turner and Hardaway to the six who brought logged major minutes for two complimentary pieces a pick swap and 2025?  I wouldn't let 2025 stand in the way of that.  I'd do it and sign the extension with Turner, sign Brunson and call it a day.

I would let 25 stand in my way.  That will negatively impact our asset pool for years.  As much as I think this team would be better with Turner and Timmy, and I can squint and see a contender there, I still think we really need that 2 way wing to put us over the top, and this move makes it much harder to get that player.

If we were going to do something like this, no reason to send out Green.  Not sure Rick values him much, we are already sending out 2 firsts, and we have plenty of expiring contracts we can send out in his place.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Are you sure this is a June limitation on Indy?

If you are thinking they are in peril of triggering tax, AFAIK the general rule is that tax is calculated based on season's end in April with some minor alterations later. (You might have some bonuses earned from the post-season results. And trade bonuses on June trades would be added to the calculation, but not seeing any mention that MT has one).

Or are they operating with a hard cap? From what I am reading, the Pacers aren't hard capped, but that could be wrong. However, they are a good ways from that limit.

Certain deals would hard-cap them.  I was playing around with some things on the trade checker where Hardaway and Powell were outgoing and those were illegal because Indy spent more than the Taxpayer MLE on the combination of Craig, Taylor and Washington and the deal I was trying took them over the apron.  Indy has a sizable TPE that I was trying to use to offload extra salary.

However, I took the fact they could be blocked by hard cap in June to also mean that tax would be triggered by an over the tax trade in June.  So, thanks for the correction.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I would NOT like that deal at all. Not one bit. Losing on JG, a future 1st, AND dropping spots for a guy I am not sold on??

NO. THANK. YOU.

I’m with you on a lot of things, but we’ll have to part ways on this one.

I think Turner is at least Top 60 in the league…probably Top 30 defensively.   Guys like that should hurt a little if they are available via trade.  I personally don’t see a late first in 2025 to be that big of a deal.  If Hardaway stays, it will be very difficult for Green to get minutes.  We’ll never get value for him if he’s rotting on the bench behind 3 PG’s Bullock and THJ eating up all of the minutes at the 1, 2 and 3.  Moving down five slots isn’t a big deal in what is said to be a flat draft from 20-40 or so.

It feels like Nico has been almost too explicit in his description of what is needed.  Like he has someone in mind.  Turner keeps alive the offensive style we used in the playoffs with Maxi and provides the rim protection Powell can only dream of.  Collins would be even more expensive and while I agree that I like him better offensively, it is pretty clear Kidd is going to create a defense first system (or die trying).  I think Turner is the better fit there.

[mvossman]

I want Nurkic. If he can be healthy I think he would be a monster with Luka. He is one of the best two way centers in the league IMO. But he needs to stay healthy. But his health is why he might come cheap. I hope he is available for the TPMLE.

I have a hard time believing he will be that cheap.  But if he is, is he really that good of a fit?  Not sure he is mobile enough to play our kind of defense, and isn't he more of a post player than a rim runner?  I'm not saying that can't work with Luka, but we its not an area we seem to be very interested in.

I'm leaning more towards guys like Hartenstein and Jalen Smith who are younger, healthier and a better fit.  They are also more likely to be available as their current teams can't pay them as much as we can.

[mvossman]

I’m with you on a lot of things, but we’ll have to part ways on this one.

I think Turner is at least Top 60 in the league…probably Top 30 defensively.   Guys like that should hurt a little if they are available via trade.  I personally don’t see a late first in 2025 to be that big of a deal.  If Hardaway stays, it will be very difficult for Green to get minutes.  We’ll never get value for him if he’s rotting on the bench behind 3 PG’s Bullock and THJ eating up all of the minutes at the 1, 2 and 3.  Moving down five slots isn’t a big deal in what is said to be a flat draft from 20-40 or so.

It feels like Nico has been almost too explicit in his description of what is needed.  Like he has someone in mind.  Turner keeps alive the offensive style we used in the playoffs with Maxi and provides the rim protection Powell can only dream of.  Collins would be even more expensive and while I agree that I like him better offensively, it is pretty clear Kidd is going to create a defense first system (or die trying).  I think Turner is the better fit there.

As I understand it, the day after the next draft we will have access to all of our picks with no restrictions.  If we send out 25 we will have to wait at least 3 years to get in that position.  I find that to be at least as big of a hit as the pick itself.  His injury history and all the other reasons not to spend large cap/assets on a center makes me worried this turns into a mini KP situation.

[Jakeospikez]

As I understand it, the day after the next draft we will have access to all of our picks with no restrictions.  If we send out 25 we will have to wait at least 3 years to get in that position.  I find that to be at least as big of a hit as the pick itself.  His injury history and all the other reasons not to spend large cap/assets on a center makes me worried this turns into a mini KP situation.

Don't necessarily have to wait that long, can fix that situation by getting another team's pick. Try to get some cheap one from a really good contender if they really need to make something happen, or make a trade to remove the protections placed on the pick. I'd be a little hesitant to give up the 2025 pick and Josh Green both though. Turner is gonna be looking to get paid after this contract expires. They better be really sure about whoever they're picking this draft becoming a quality player. Worst case scenario is drafting a project that doesn't ever get good or gets good around the end of the rookie deal.

[F Gump]

[For Turner] .... a 26 for 31 pick swap, our next available first, Green and Powell.   

I like the general idea, but I'd want to offer Powell + Brown + Chriss, and a 1st.

I'm not sure Green rather than expiring salary is a biggie to Indy, so I suspect you aren't gaining value to make his inclusion worth it.

Do it in July, when you have coverage because the Mavs have signed either Smith or Hartenstein. I think having 3 (incl Kleber) offers some position flex for Kleber if needed, plus it's some insurance if either MT or Kleber is injured.

I'd be interested in paying a bit more than the above if (but only if) it's an extend-and-trade. I do think having a necessity of an extend/not extend conversation does have the potential to get Indy to be eager to trade him AND to make sure it's Dallas, because that brings MT into the negotiation, and it might get MT to say he won't extend with INDY but will extend with Dallas.

[Jommybone]

Too many minor issues clogging up this thread. I like Josh Green. But he’s not worth saying no to Miles. Unlocked picks sounds great. If you can use em to trade for a guy like Miles. July vs. June? Come on, man. Get it done whenever you can. If Turner is healthy enough to risk big bucks on, then any non-core pieces it takes should be on the table. 

Guys in the league who can shoot 3s, switch screens, and defend the rim? Maxi, Miles, and Methuselah Horford. First team to employ 2 of em takes the next O’Brien.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/_TradeDeadline/statu...4717254659

[Branduil]

I don't think the Mavs need to give up a pick swap this year for Turner if they're already including a future 1st and Green.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I like the general idea, but I'd want to offer Powell + Brown + Chriss, and a 1st.

I'm not sure Green rather than expiring salary is a biggie to Indy, so I suspect you aren't gaining value to make his inclusion worth it.

Do it in July, when you have coverage because the Mavs have signed either Smith or Hartenstein. I think having 3 (incl Kleber) offers some position flex for Kleber if needed, plus it's some insurance if either MT or Kleber is injured.

I'd be interested in paying a bit more than the above if (but only if) it's an extend-and-trade. I do think having a necessity of an extend/not extend conversation does have the potential to get Indy to be eager to trade him AND to make sure it's Dallas, because that brings MT into the negotiation, and it might get MT to say he won't extend with INDY but will extend with Dallas.

OK, I'll play...  'You can keep Green, but we are announcing the deal after the draft as Powell, Brown, Chriss and two first round picks (2022 and your next earliest available Top 3 protected) in exchange for Turner and our 2022 second acquired from the Rockets (I'm selling two first rounders to my fans or we don't have a deal).  We will consummate the deal after the moratorium so that you can negotiate the sign and extend, but it is not a condition of the deal.  Whether you can get your boy Duffy to extend Turner is not my concern'.

Not roll-playing any more...I wonder if our pursuit of Smith would muddy this from Indy's perspective in any way.  I think I'd rather lock this down ASAP and trust that Dallas already knows what Duffy's guy will extend for.  With that said, I like the idea of also adding Smith or Hartenstein.  The argument for waiting on Turner is that it is easier to convince Smith/IH that we have a fantastic opportunity for PT here.  If we've already traded for Turner, that is a more difficult argument to make.

[omahen]

The argument for waiting on Turner is that it is easier to convince Smith/IH that we have a fantastic opportunity for PT here. 

You would be lying to them?

[ItsGoTime]

You would be lying to them?

That depends on what side of the injury prone spectrum you land on with Turner!