TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[Kammrath]

So you're saying he's going to have to play in China next year? 

He's going to get at least a 1-year MAX offer from someone, even in (his) worst case scenario. If Brooklyn gives the best offer, he'll take it. You can take that to the bank. If they don't, and they're willing to help him get to a team without room who might've talked themselves into making a better offer (3 years?) then I bet they'll get THEN a better value for that trade than what you're expecting them to swallow NOW, at the deadline, and they'll have had the benefit of Irving playing down the stretch for a contract, which I assume will be as close to ideal behavior as he can get. 

I don't think he gets traded unless the Nets GET value for him. Now "value" is relative, but they're going to GET it, not GIVE it.

No he isn't going to play in China. He is going to play in LA, likely. But I do not believe for a second BKN would get better value this summer than they can get right now. 

You think BKN will GET value for Kyrie. I think BKN will at best get usable players and possibly GIVE up assets to get those usable players. 

And now we can stop repeating ourselves and see how it unfolds.

[Mavs2021]

What would the Heat have to give to get Kyrie for Lowery?

Dallas could agree to take Lowery and get Ben Simmons
Dallas sends Dinwiddie; Hardaway, Bertans, McGee
Miami would likely have to send another piece out to cover the Trade Kicker on Kyrie.

I would consider this move because Lowery fits the Summer of '24 timeline and converts Hardaway and Bertans into Simmons.

Miami might DEMAND that Duncan Robinson be part of this process, and that muddies the water. I don't know that Robinson to NJ, Curry to Dallas fixes it financially, but it sure looks like Dallas sends out picks to accommodate that counter-offer.

Yeah, some team(s) are going to make bank on this Lakers/Nets trainwreck, but I´m sure it´s not going to be Cuban. It´s just not in the Mavs DNA.

[KillerLeft]

Irving clearly doesn't trust Brooklyn, and I'm sure the feeling is mutual. But perhaps Nico can use the trust he has built with players over the years to say something like:

With respect, you're not seeing it, fully. 

You know who Kyrie's uncle is? Rod Strickland, one of the first players ever to get obscenely wealthy in the NBA and then totally stop trying. One of the OG "money stealers" if you will. That's Kyrie's role model, all his life. 

This is not a matter of trust. This is a matter of a conman, a truly evil person, trying to trick someone into giving him one more huge, guaranteed deal so he can go right back to finding excuses to miss road trips, not play, and generally be one of the worst teammates in league history. Whoever invented the term "team cancer" was describing Kyrie Irving, they just didn't know it at the time. 

He's asking for a trade now because he has realized the Nets aren't going to fall for it this time, despite him doing his job for a full 3-weeks. (Wow!)

This is about Kyrie and his agent finding a mark who's too stupid to avoid being his last victim. This isn't something "relationships" can fix, because at the end of the day, this is not a serious person worth any kind of investment, whatsoever.

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You think BKN will GET value for Kyrie.

Or not trade him, with the latter being possibly more likely. Correct.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Why not? What I'm describing is EXACTLY what Dallas did with Porzingis, who hadn't even played a game for them yet. They told him they were going to max him when they could and then they did it.

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This is synced to start right on McMahon's analysis of what the Dallas offer would be, and I think he nails it.

https://youtu.be/WPYssCTCRI4?t=645

I think you're burying the lede in this video, Killer.

At 10:50 in Windhorst picks his nose.  At 14:00 he eats it.

THIS is far more riveting than thinking about how Kyrie would destroy the Mavs.

[Kammrath]

Or not trade him, with the latter being possibly more likely.

Which means they will GET absolutely nothing for him and he will walk.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...4835885056

[Mavs2021]

With respect, you're not seeing it, fully. 

You know who Kyrie's uncle is? Rod Strickland, one of the first players ever to get obscenely wealthy in the NBA and then totally stop trying. One of the OG "money stealers" if you will. That's Kyrie's role model, all his life. 

This is not a matter of trust. This is a matter of a conman, a truly evil person, trying to trick someone into giving him one more huge, guaranteed deal so he can go right back to finding excuses to miss road trips, not play, and generally be one of the worst teammates in league history. Whoever invented the term "team cancer" was describing Kyrie Irving, they just didn't know it at the time. 

He's asking for a trade now because he has realized the Nets aren't going to fall for it this time, despite him doing his job for a full 3-weeks. (Wow!)

This is about Kyrie and his agent finding a mark who's too stupid to avoid being his last victim. This isn't something "relationships" can fix, because at the end of the day, this is not a serious person worth any kind of investment, whatsoever.

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Or not trade him, with the latter being possibly more likely. Correct.

^...and that´s why he is going to the Lakers.

LeBron has controlled him before. Two year extension lines up with the Bron/Davis window (and Luka free agency, I kid ).

I think the Kyrie to Lakers with extension has mutually been agreed upon for months. They just haven´t found a 3rd team for Westbrook yet that can make it worthwhile for the Nets. That´s what this basically comes down to imho.

[KillerLeft]

Which means they will GET absolutely nothing for him and he will walk.

A) Nah, for all the reasons I laid out.

B) Even if so, that's STILL better than the situation they'll be in if they do what you think they'll do. What they'd GET is not having to do a deal like what you're describing, which is obvious. You want them to trade Kyrie Irving, who's distressed, sure, but not on a longterm hamstring of a deal, along WITH assets, for some bad contracts and a couple of good role players? Nope. They're smarter than that. Kyrie walking (away from a player in Durant who I believe will be excited to see him go) is not worse than that. It's just not. And, I bet they'll get something small (but positive) for facilitating, as I said. 

C) Do they even HAVE picks to trade? Houston owns that franchise for years, yeah?

[Kammrath]

B) Even if so, that's STILL better than the situation they'll be in if they do what you think they'll do. What they'd GET is not having to do a deal like what you're describing, which is obvious. You want them to trade Kyrie Irving, who's distressed, sure, but not on a longterm hamstring of a deal, along WITH assets, for some bad contracts and a couple of good role players? Nope. They're smarter than that. Kyrie walking (away from a player in Durant who I believe will be excited to see him go) is not worse than that. It's just not. And, I bet they'll get something small (but positive) for facilitating, as I said. 

C) Do they even HAVE picks to trade? Houston owns that franchise for years, yeah?

B) You think they are better off losing Kyrie for nothing this summer while swallowing his headache the rest of this season than they would be to get players like SD and DFS to make a run at the title this year? Seriously?

C) They have an extra 2023 1st and an extra 2027 1st.

[KillerLeft]

B) You think they are better off losing Kyrie for nothing this summer while swallowing his headache the rest of this season than they would be to get players like SD and DFS to make a run at the title this year? Seriously?

Oh hell yes, I take that road long before I take back Bertans and pay pick(s) for the privilege. 

When both Durant and Irving are healthy this season, it's working. They're one of the better stories of the season.

And again, I think this is 100% about his bird rights and him wanting a 4-year-MAX. I think that a team WILL give that to him, and they'll either have to pay a trade cost now to make it easier or something small to get around the cap over the summer. 

They're not PAYING a team to take him. That's not BETTER than losing him for nothing.

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B) You think they are better off losing Kyrie for nothing this summer while swallowing his headache the rest of this season than they would be to get players like SD and DFS to make a run at the title this year? Seriously?

Answered this one too fast, sorry. 

I think they'd love to turn Irving into those players, but not nearly enough to PAY for the privilege. Irving is the payment. Period.

[Mavs2021]

A) Nah, for all the reasons I laid out.

B) Even if so, that's STILL better than the situation they'll be in if they do what you think they'll do. What they'd GET is not having to do a deal like what you're describing, which is obvious. You want them to trade Kyrie Irving, who's distressed, sure, but not on a longterm hamstring of a deal, along WITH assets, for some bad contracts and a couple of good role players? Nope. They're smarter than that. Kyrie walking (away from a player in Durant who I believe will be excited to see him go) is not worse than that. It's just not. And, I bet they'll get something small (but positive) for facilitating, as I said. 

C) Do they even HAVE picks to trade? Houston owns that franchise for years, yeah?

The problem is not Kyrie walking. In a vacuum that´s fine, but it´s about Durant. If Irving walks in the off-season, Durant becomes a 35 year old stuck on a team with Simmons, Harris, O´Neale, Claxton, Mills and no assets/capspace to upgrade the team.

What you think teams will be willing to give up for Kyrie in a summer S&T with a Durant trade request looming over any deal. Not exactly a position of strength for the Nets.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Hell, the Nets can probably get a better deal than what some of you are suggesting by simply agreeing to sign and trade him to whichever stupid team wants him this summer. 

This bargain basement "fleecing" of the Nets at the deadline is not going to happen. You're all setting yourselves up for disappointment.

Isn’t that what a negotiation looks like.  You ask for the moon.  I counter asking for the stars and sky.  I think Dallas can walk away if they don’t get what they want.  You seem to think they won’t be able to help themselves and are destined to make a bad deal.

I think the question here is what are we competing against.  It is a two part question.  If it is Us vs. LAL, part one is the contract going forward.  Is LAL willing to trade for him ‘naked’?  In other words, give up the assets needed on the hope Kyrie will sign this summer.  I sure wouldn’t.  I would predict no one is doing this on a long term basis and so FG’s S&T for 2/$79mm is likely an even playing field.  I just can’t see anyone hitching their wagon to Irving for longer than that ESPECIALLY since such a hitching can’t be agreed to now.

So, what is the talent LA has to offer?  It won’t be RW and two picks.  As you’ve noted, Brooklyn wants to win now.  It will have to involve a third team.  Someone has to want the LA picks, be willing to take RW for a few months and have some assets to give away.  Utah is the logical place.  I’ll presume Conley, Vanderbilt and one of the scoring guards (Clarkson, Beasley or Sexton)…no picks.  

So, let’s compare.  SD vs. Conley?  I know who I’d take if it were 2018, but for this year and next, it is close.  DFS vs. Guard?  Brooklyn already has plenty of no-D scorers.  It is why they don’t want THJ.  So, I’m not sure they’d particularly value Clarkson, Beasley or Sexton.  DFS fits so perfectly into the Claxton, Durant, DFS front court.  I’d think he’d be highly valued.  Add SD and one of their floor spacers and they have a starting unit.  Does Vandy move the needle.  Probably not.  He can’t be played with Claxton or Simmons.

I think we have just as competitive an offer as LA can make using pieces from Utah.  I think we have a core of a deal.  I certainly wouldn’t add Green or a pick if I’m giving up DFS and Dinwiddie.  In fact, I think I’ve improved your chances by converting Irving into two very useful players.  I’m with Kamm, I want something back in such a deal.  Their 2023 pick is probably their best asset.  I don’t believe that line of thinking is that far off.

[Kammrath]

hey're not PAYING a team to take him.

To be clear on my position:

1) I do not think they will have to pay to get someone to take Kyrie to the same extent LAL would have to pay to get someone to take Westbrook.

2) I think Kyrie likely can be turned into "usable players" (as I have said above). 

3) I think the MORE "usable players" you include then they would have to add picks to the scenario. 

4) With that all said, I think it is MORE LIKELY they have to PAY to get rid of Kyrie than they will get PAID for someone to take him off their hands. But that does not mean I think them having to "pay" is most likely.

[KillerLeft]

I think Dallas can walk away if they don’t get what they want.  You seem to think they won’t be able to help themselves and are destined to make a bad deal.

Quite right that they CAN. I am, as you say, a little worried that they won't.

[Kammrath]

 I’m with Kamm, I want something back in such a deal.  Their 2023 pick is probably their best asset.

[KillerLeft]

I think we have just as competitive an offer as LA can make using pieces from Utah.  I think we have a core of a deal.  I certainly wouldn’t add Green or a pick if I’m giving up DFS and Dinwiddie.  In fact, I think I’ve improved your chances by converting Irving into two very useful players.  I’m with Kamm, I want something back in such a deal.  Their 2023 pick is probably their best asset.  I don’t believe that line of thinking is that far off.

Well, to be clear, I think adding Kyrie Irving to this team even for the rest of this one season, let alone on a 2-years (or longer) extension would be extremely disappointing, regardless of how the deal looks. So there's that part of it. 

I don't disagree with you, Kamm or Gump on what the Mavs' interest SHOULD be if they don't share my distaste of the idea, but I don't have any faith that it will go down like that. And what scares me is that I think you're right - they really could put together one of the better deals. Far better than LA's, even with those two picks thrown in (which they will be, as far as Dallas knows, for negotatiing purposes). 

I have a very, very bad feeling about this.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I know.  We went YEARS rarely disagreeing about anything.  Then came 2022/2023…yikes.

[KillerLeft]

@"DanSchwartzgan" Just so I'm clear - I think I know the answer, but want to make sure: 

You're not going to like any version of this deal that includes Josh Green, right?

[Mavs2021]

I know.  We went YEARS rarely disagreeing about anything.  Then came 2022/2023…yikes.

Russell Westbrook is bringing the family back together.

So I´m landing on two potential trades now...

Westbrook + Lakers 1st unprotected to Mavs
Irving (+ extension) + Bertans to Lakers
Dinwiddie + THJ to the Nets

if that is not enough for the Nets then....

Westbrook + Lakers 2027 1st unprotected + Nets 2023 1st unprotected to Mavs
Irving (+ extension) + Bertans to Lakers
Dinwiddie + DFS + McGee to the Nets

I think the Lakers are fine with this and there are enough possible iterations of the Mavs to Nets part to find a trade agreement, which then just hinges on Cuban being willing to take a step back, "lose" the trade now and win it in five months.

Maybe Nico can pay Zach Lowe to write a pre-trade A+ grade for Cuban´s ego.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Well, to be clear, I think adding Kyrie Irving to this team even for the rest of this one season, let alone on a 2-years (or longer) extension would be extremely disappointing, regardless of how the deal looks. So there's that part of it. 

I get it.  If this is how you feel about KI, then no deal is going to satisfy you.

He isn’t my favorite player either.  But, I’m also not particularly enthralled with the current state of affairs.  Kyrie is quite a talent…maybe good enough to get Luka a ring.  Luka/Kyrie/Green/Something/Wood backed up by Powell/Maxi and Reggie?  I’m OK with trying and if it doesn’t work, you are fishing in the free agent pool in 2025.

The key to me is that “something” spot.  I still need that defender who allows Wood to stay off the floor defensively in the playoffs.  The reason I’m so interested in the Brooklyn pick is I think it helps us get Mr. Something.

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@"DanSchwartzgan" Just so I'm clear - I think I know the answer, but want to make sure: 

You're not going to like any version of this deal that includes Josh Green, right?

Correct!