TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[KillerLeft]

That's a really interesting take  --- that they plan to make THJ, in essence, the 3rd guy (ie give him those minutes) in order to either have a 3rd creator no one anticipated, or to build his value to trade for one.

I haven't seen anyone else offer that analysis, and it does make sense in explaining Dragic and the Mavs' inaction in general. It also explains where THJ is going to be used. He certainly doesn't have the defensive chops to rotate with DFS/Bullock and be the 3rd wing. Well done.

This has crossed my mind several times over the off-season, but it doesn't lead me to "Hardaway is the 3rd creator." More like "they'll only roll with two creators." Hardaway IS better suited to play off-guard than he is the 3, so it's not crazy, it just means they wouldn't have two creators on the floor at all times this time around. 

My issue isn't with that, because that's how most teams operate. But, Dinwiddie is an injury concern, and since Dragic didn't want their Burke job, I feel pretty strongly that they need someone to take it. You know, because Luka and Dinwiddie will both likely miss at least a few games along the way. 

Also, if that's the plan, I feel like Hardaway starting to help provide space for that Luka/McGee pnr action makes a ton of sense, offensively. Save the Luka/Dinwiddie (together) minutes for the 4th, in my opinion.

[ItsGoTime]

Not seeing any reason ATL would be looking for a trade like this.

The speculation at the beginning of the offseason was that Collins will not be with the team at opening tip and Bogi was signed to start next to Young. I see lots of reason for them to do a trade like this.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Let’s be honest. No one knows what the hell the Mavs are doing.

[ItsGoTime]

Let’s be honest. No one knows what the hell the Mavs are doing.

When did we ever?

[Mapka]

Bogi has been consistently getting up over 7 3s a game while hitting over 38% for his career.  I'm not sure why he wouldn't space the floor for Luka?  He seems like a better off ball option than Brunson (who put up half those 3s at a lower percentage).

Oh, I see.
He had the Randle year in 20/21.

He is an close-to-average 3p-shooter with a not-so-fast release and is played like that by defences.

And he is no real ballhandler/playmaker.
He can’t break down a defence.

I'm not saying, he isn't a useful player. But we need someone to relieve Luka and Din.

And we need to keep the spacing good enough.

[IamDougieFresh]

Let’s be honest. No one knows what the hell the Mavs are doing.

I mean, how could we know if they don't even know.

[Mavs2021]

I mean, how could we know if they don't even know.

I think they know what they are trying to do, it´s just that nobody can understand why they are doing them.

[F Gump]

This has crossed my mind several times over the off-season, but it doesn't lead me to "Hardaway is the 3rd creator." More like "they'll only roll with two creators." Hardaway IS better suited to play off-guard than he is the 3, so it's not crazy, it just means they wouldn't have two creators on the floor at all times this time around. 

My issue isn't with that, because that's how most teams operate. But, Dinwiddie is an injury concern, and since Dragic didn't want their Burke job, I feel pretty strongly that they need someone to take it. You know, because Luka and Dinwiddie will both likely miss at least a few games along the way. 

Also, if that's the plan, I feel like Hardaway starting to help provide space for that Luka/McGee pnr action makes a ton of sense, offensively. Save the Luka/Dinwiddie (together) minutes for the 4th, in my opinion.

I certainly agree with your concerns (that they are one injury away from playing 1/3 of the game without any playmaker at all on the floor) ... but the only real answer to that would be that they do apparently see THJ as a potential 3rd playmaker/creator type, as we said, and are heading down that road.

Or else we're back in the same Loop of Puzzlement over why they talked Dragic out of taking their 15th slot (at minimum salary), and what alternative they have in mind for 3rd Creator. If any. Which, if they don't, seems like a recipe for inevitable disaster.

[Chicagojk]

I have nothing to go on, but my hope is Dallas is hoping to be a part of a trade prior to the season.   But if nothing happens, they will bring in a minimum guy and keep their flexibility.    Someone like Kemba.    You are not looking for a core player.  You are hoping to catch lighting in a bottle.  Can you get 40 good games out of Kemba?  A full season?    It may not even be a big role.    Maybe just insurance in case of injury or foul trouble.  In some instances, Dallas may prefer to give minutes to Josh Green of Frank.  Maybe that what Goran found out.    
So Dallas would love to get involved in a bigger trade, while not giving up valuable future assets.   If they don't, they look for a veteran minimum guy they can tread water with until either more players are made available or the trade deadline.   

I am not saying this would be my preferred direction.  But I also believe teams that are desperate to make a trade, typically do not wind up in better places.

[mvossman]

Oh, I see.
He had the Randle year in 20/21.

He is an close-to-average 3p-shooter with a not-so-fast release and is played like that by defences.

And he is no real ballhandler/playmaker.
He can’t break down a defence.

I'm not saying, he isn't a useful player. But we need someone to relieve Luka and Din.

And we need to keep the spacing good enough.

Randle is really not a good comparison.  Bogdan has never shot under 36% in any year.  Guys that shoot league average or better from 3 and get off over 7 3s a game generate plenty of spacing.  He is not a Maxi or Dorian who needs to be wide open to take the 3.  His shot profile looks closer to Timmy than those guys.  There is nothing in the numbers to suggest he would be a huge drop off in spacing.

He is not an ideal choice to lead an offense for significant minutes, but he would be a significantly better option than anything we have right now, and likely better than anybody we can find on the vet min scrap heap.

[Mapka]

Randle is really not a good comparison.  Bogdan has never shot under 36% in any year.  Guys that shoot league average or better from 3 and get off over 7 3s a game generate plenty of spacing.  He is not a Maxi or Dorian who needs to be wide open to take the 3.  His shot profile looks closer to Timmy than those guys.  There is nothing in the numbers to suggest he would be a huge drop off in spacing.

He is not an ideal choice to lead an offense for significant minutes, but he would be a significantly better option than anything we have right now, and likely better than anybody we can find on the vet min scrap heap.

I didn't compare him to Randle.
He shoot like 37-36-36-36-42-36.
So the 42 is his Randle year like 5% better than before and after.

If you watch him shoot, you can see he is really slow compared to our shooters minus Maxi.
Defenders always cheat a step.
He is good at attacking bad closeouts or broken defenses.

We are not comparing him to leftovers, if we trade our arguably second best player for him.

[mvossman]

I didn't compare him to Randle.
He shoot like 37-36-36-36-42-36.
So the 42 is his Randle year like 5% better than before and after.

If you watch him shoot, you can see he is really slow compared to our shooters minus Maxi.
Defenders always cheat a step.
He is good at attacking bad closeouts or broken defenses.

We are not comparing him to leftovers, if we trade our arguably second best player for him.

If you think Timmy is arguably our second best player, that would explain our different positions.  I would argue he is more like 5th best, and if you take into account fit and importance to the team, he probably comes in behind Maxi and Bullock as well.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you are probably on a bit of an island in being against trading Timmy for Bogdan.

[Mapka]

If you think Timmy is arguably our second best player, that would explain our different positions.  I would argue he is more like 5th best, and if you take into account fit and importance to the team, he probably comes in behind Maxi and Bullock as well.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you are probably on a bit of an island in being against trading Timmy for Bogdan.

I have Luka, nothingnothingnothing

And then Din or THJ.
Maybe Wood.
Nobody else can create something.

[KillerLeft]

I certainly agree with your concerns (that they are one injury away from playing 1/3 of the game without any playmaker at all on the floor) ... but the only real answer to that would be that they do apparently see THJ as a potential 3rd playmaker/creator type, as we said, and are heading down that road.

Or else we're back in the same Loop of Puzzlement over why they talked Dragic out of taking their 15th slot (at minimum salary), and what alternative they have in mind for 3rd Creator. If any. Which, if they don't, seems like a recipe for inevitable disaster.

Oh, I fully expect an emergency PG to be added before the season starts. I just think it will literally be a Burke-level guy, and not someone who makes us feel like their top end rotation can include two creators on the floor at all times. 

I do think signs point to Luka/Dinwiddie/Hardaway being rotated at guard. I just don't think they'll try to make Hardaway an offensive initiator, that's all. This means that either Powell or Green is in the rotation. Maybe both, some nights.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://heavy.com/sports/golden-state-wa...ns-rumors/

[mvossman]

I have Luka, nothingnothingnothing

And then Din or THJ.
Maybe Wood.
Nobody else can create something.

While creation is probably the most important skill in basketball, its not the only skill.  Dorian is the backbone of our defense and wildly better on that side of the court than any of the guys you mentioned.  And he does that while being a net positive on offense (even though he does not create) and you cannot say that about any of those other guys defensively.  

Creation is the most important skill, which is why Luka is head and shoulders above everyone else, but after him I think Dorian's high level defensive play in conjunction with his positive contributions on offense puts him in the number 2 spot.  It does not hurt that he has led the team in total minutes 2 of the last 3 years.  

Also, if creation is your driving criteria, that would be even more reason to go for Bogdan over Timmy.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...3731982336

[Mapka]

While creation is probably the most important skill in basketball, its not the only skill.  Dorian is the backbone of our defense and wildly better on that side of the court than any of the guys you mentioned.  And he does that while being a net positive on offense (even though he does not create) and you cannot say that about any of those other guys defensively.  

Creation is the most important skill, which is why Luka is head and shoulders above everyone else, but after him I think Dorian's high level defensive play in conjunction with his positive contributions on offense puts him in the number 2 spot.  It does not hurt that he has led the team in total minutes 2 of the last 3 years.  

Also, if creation is your driving criteria, that would be even more reason to go for Bogdan over Timmy.

I would agree that Dorian is as important as Luka, so I'm to biased to rate him.
But as a basketball player THJ is more talented. And his skills are more rare.

Bogdanovic is a secondary creator.
He needs someone to cause a crack in the defense first.
THJ can cause such crack or get a reasonable shot up himself.

[F Gump]

While I'm not wildly enthusiastic about THJ, I do think Bogi's skill set is being highly overrated in this thread.

The guy they are missing needs to know how to not only get a shot for himself, but also break down the defense and make it easy for others. Bogi's's a scorer, he can get a shot for HIMSELF, but the guy who creates opportunity for everyone else too? I've never seen him that way at all.

[ItsGoTime]

While I'm not wildly enthusiastic about THJ, I do think Bogi's skill set is being highly overrated in this thread.

The guy they are missing needs to know how to not only get a shot for himself, but also break down the defense and make it easy for others. Bogi's's a scorer, he can get a shot for HIMSELF, but the guy who creates opportunity for everyone else too? I've never seen him that way at all.

If you think he’s being highly overrated, you’re reading too much into defending him against THJ’s skillset, especially for this team. Bogdan is basically a lesser JB who would come off the bench. He’s basically what we need THJ to be. I also believe he is worth more than THJ. That’s the basis for adding Maxi to the trade (that and I believe Collins has more value than Wood) and I didn’t want to add draft capital to the trade as I don’t think Atl is really looking for that.