05-22-2022, 10:28 AM
(05-22-2022, 07:45 AM)burekemde Wrote: We are very different team at home. Been like that all playoffs long. Once we get home and win, this will also build the great momentum and more importantly the mental confidence to play away.
Warriors, are good, but not better than Suns. If better, maybe marginally. I think we are dealing with some coaching issue in the first two games, in addition to disadvantage of playing away court, and that has been a problem. But, same can be said about two first games against Suns, and Kidd adjusted. We already seen adjustments from game 1 to 2, and it points in the right direction.
If Mavs win their 3 games at home, at that point they will have worn down Warriors physically, and adjusted to their schemes, and won the necessary momentum and confidence for a game 7 away. This looks a lot like the Suns series in some regards.
It was debated earlier either in this thread or another whether defense or offense was the issue. In my view offense is defense, and defense is offense. They are the same thing and super connected. It is no coincidence that once Warriors switched to zone in second half and we couldn't score on them, that our team stopped playing defense in last game. In 1st half when we played well on offense, we dominated on defensive side. This is no coincidence as when we score on other end, we get together on defense and reset our schemes. Once we don't score, GSW like Suns have, were so far really good in taking advantage of this in transition and preventing our defense to reset well.
One could also twist this the other way in terms of interpretation, and say that because we played well D in first half last game, we scored. And once we stopped playing D in second half last game, we then stopped playing offense as we couldn't build any transition game on offense. And this is also true. In my view it's both, but last game mainly the first mentioned and not the former. Because the adjustment from Warriors side were mainly on their defensive side, and this completely killed our offense, and thus, thereby also our defense.
IMO, we have figured out their base defense completely. Next will be the adjustment to the zone, which I believe will be relatively easy adjustment to make for Kidd. Once this is done, and we can score plenty of them, I expect our defense to play much tougher. And Warriors will also have to deal then with the momentum of the home crowd.
I know it has looked "bad" the first two games. But when you look at how we destroyed their base defense with our adjustments, and take into account that we will most likely be able to counter their zone look, I think that things look really well for the Mavs. This will help our defense as well to improve, and look like the one in first half of last game. I expect also as we go in the series to see Warriors wearing down and further decrease their offensive abilities, just like we saw for the Suns. I don't expect it to become that quiet shut down in game 6 or 7 as for the Suns, but they wont be able to hold the same stamina level at this point as they are at now. I also expect that we attack them far more inside. Several of their players have already shown foul troubles, and this will only increase as we go further.
We are a completely different team at home. If we reach game 7, i place 1% chance for GSW to win it, and 99% to Dallas. There is no way Luka loses that one elimination game. At this point, they will have wear down from the physical play from our side and we have already figured out their base defense, and at that time much more further.
Love your optimism, but GS will NOT lose a 7th game at home.