05-17-2022, 08:39 AM
(05-16-2022, 01:49 AM)windjc Wrote: 538 starting to give a little respect.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...id=rrpromo
(05-16-2022, 07:40 PM)Kammrath Wrote: 538's RAPTOR prediction has the Mavs with a 73% chance to beat GSW and a 35% chance of winning the title. Crazy.
Mavs are a "pick'em" in each road game against GSW and 7 pt favs at home.
![[Image: Screenshot-2022-05-16-7.37.57-PM.png]](http://stlukeskck.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Screenshot-2022-05-16-7.37.57-PM.png)
(05-16-2022, 07:46 PM)windjc Wrote: Yep. But Vegas still doesn't believe in Luka. They have GSW -5 to -5.5 over Dallas in game one and around 2-1 to win the series.
(05-16-2022, 08:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Vegas doesn't "believe" in anyone....Vegas gauges public opinion and places its line as to encourage the public to bet. Vegas aims for equal bets on both sides of their line.
(05-16-2022, 08:18 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Yeah, I saw a comparison somewhere between "market based" predictions and 538. Wildly different, no doubt due to predicting public perception. The goal is to make money, after all.
I have noticed that some of the smarter analysts are starting to board the Mavs train today.
I don't know if I expect our Mavs to beat Boston or MIA, but I'll be pretty surprised if they don't make fairly short work of the Warriors.
(05-16-2022, 08:27 PM)mvossman Wrote: Interesting that the Warriors have a higher current rating than full strength rating. I'm guessing that is due to Wiseman, and I don't disagree with that assessment.
Although I assume this was based on regular season play, and as we have seen the playoffs are a different beast. I'm guessing the Suns were the highest on this list.
(05-16-2022, 08:42 PM)mvossman Wrote: I would be surprised. I think its going 6 or 7 and could go either way. Golden state is a very good team who have gotten fully healthy, know how to win and have home court. I have generally been on the side of the fence of thinking we were better than most folks gave us credit for and was in the minority in thinking we were only one piece away, and that piece didn't need to be a star. I'm not sure that's still not the case. If we make quick work of Golden State then I am ready to admit we are even better than I thought.
Compare 538's RAPTOR-based forecast to the Elo forecast:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...edictions/
Also see:
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/