05-16-2022, 12:09 PM
It is so hard to know. How healthy is Klay? How much of a defensive liability is Curry and how much can they hide him on that end of the court? Will the 3 bank close the door on us after being so open for so long? Will Luka continue to be Luka? Can he even—holding my breath—improve?
Yes, lots of unanswered questions. But my best guess is . . . Mavs in 5.
Homer alert? Of course. I’m a fan. We’re coming off the biggest shocker (pleasant shocker anyway) in Mavs history. Mondays are made for overreacting.
Still.
Here’s how I see it: The Mavs win with versatility.
Defensive versatility? We’ve been talking about that for ages here. Kleber and Powell, whatever their shortcomings, are among the very most versatile bigs, defensively, in the whole league. Finney-Smith even more so. Bullock guards 1-4 with aplomb. Add Ntilikina’s series-saving contributions, and it’s an impressive, oppressive horde of long, athletic, mobile defenders. Precisely what the doctor ordered to contain the vaunted Warriors’ “death” lineup.
Offensive versatility? At the midpoint last night, leading 57-27 with nothing but human remains left on the court for the Suns, the Mavs had a total of 4 assists. 19 field goals made. 4 assists.
That’s not the recipe followed games 3, 4, and 6, in which we tallied 25, 22, and 18 assists respectively. Not drive-and-kick basketball. Not wide-open 3s—or not many—following wicked ball movement. Nothing of the sort.
Instead, it was 5-out isolation—hero ball some call it—with Luka and Spence beating the 1-on-1 defender of their choice off the dribble or step back. I don’t need stats to back this up. You remember it. Your jaw was on the floor alongside mine. 48 first-half points for those 2 fellas on 16/22 shooting (8/13 from deep).
The usual suspects from deep (Doe-Doe, Reggie, Maxi, Davis, and the rest of the team)? After 24 mins they had shot a pathetic 1/11 from deep, and 3/18 overall. (Jalen in particular was 1/7, 0/2 before going 10/12, 2/2 after intermission.)
Why? How? What???
Versatility.
The Mavs offense, as I see it, forces opponents to pick their poison. By design. Defend the ball handler, which requires help, or defend the floor spacers parked in their favorite spots at the 3-point line. In games 3-6, the Suns proved themselves incapable of winning with a help-defense scheme. Except for that crazy, ref-aided, 27-4 run in the third quarter of game 5, the Mavs had them whipped.
The game 7 adjustment? They stopped helping off of the 3-point line.
Now, if that were a good idea, Coach of the Year Monty Williams probably would’ve started the series that way. And the Jazz probably would’ve figured it out in round 1.
Think of it this way: Tell your slowest, weakest defender to switch onto Luka, Spencer, or Jalen, and then defend without help. And that’s your defensive game plan.
Is it really THAT surprising those 3 converted 12/19, 11/15, and 11/19 field goals respectively? Yes, that’s 64% shooting. (1.5 points per shot if I subtracted free throws correctly.) But what would you expect the 3 amigos to shoot against an unaided Bismack Biyombo or vertically challenged Chris Paul? Even for Ayton, that’s simply too much to ask. (Imagine Phil Jackson doing this to Shaq.)
Which brings us to the WCFs and Golden State. What they got, defensively, that Phoenix don’t got?
Answer: nothing.
Best argument I can muster is this. Phoenix really couldn’t sit Ayton and play small ball without further alienating their already alienated young star. The Warriors, in contrast, LOVE to go small.
But is small the answer here? How’s small gonna help you defend Luka drives 1-on-1? How’s small gonna help you defend the 3-point line if you’re helping on the drive? Does it even matter there’s no Gobert-like center for Luka to hunt if you’ve got 185 lb Steph Curry or 194 lb Jordan Poole out there? Won’t Luka shoot 12/19 or better against these “too f’n small” dudes too?
I’m guessing small ball is no advantage for the Warriors in this matchup. And I’m guessing the Mavs have grown confident and comfortable enough in what they’re trying to do to continue to do it at the league-leading pace they’ve established. It’s been pretty much the same since the calendar changed 5 months ago, no?
Mavs in 5. NBA finals, here we come!
Yes, lots of unanswered questions. But my best guess is . . . Mavs in 5.
Homer alert? Of course. I’m a fan. We’re coming off the biggest shocker (pleasant shocker anyway) in Mavs history. Mondays are made for overreacting.
Still.
Here’s how I see it: The Mavs win with versatility.
Defensive versatility? We’ve been talking about that for ages here. Kleber and Powell, whatever their shortcomings, are among the very most versatile bigs, defensively, in the whole league. Finney-Smith even more so. Bullock guards 1-4 with aplomb. Add Ntilikina’s series-saving contributions, and it’s an impressive, oppressive horde of long, athletic, mobile defenders. Precisely what the doctor ordered to contain the vaunted Warriors’ “death” lineup.
Offensive versatility? At the midpoint last night, leading 57-27 with nothing but human remains left on the court for the Suns, the Mavs had a total of 4 assists. 19 field goals made. 4 assists.
That’s not the recipe followed games 3, 4, and 6, in which we tallied 25, 22, and 18 assists respectively. Not drive-and-kick basketball. Not wide-open 3s—or not many—following wicked ball movement. Nothing of the sort.
Instead, it was 5-out isolation—hero ball some call it—with Luka and Spence beating the 1-on-1 defender of their choice off the dribble or step back. I don’t need stats to back this up. You remember it. Your jaw was on the floor alongside mine. 48 first-half points for those 2 fellas on 16/22 shooting (8/13 from deep).
The usual suspects from deep (Doe-Doe, Reggie, Maxi, Davis, and the rest of the team)? After 24 mins they had shot a pathetic 1/11 from deep, and 3/18 overall. (Jalen in particular was 1/7, 0/2 before going 10/12, 2/2 after intermission.)
Why? How? What???
Versatility.
The Mavs offense, as I see it, forces opponents to pick their poison. By design. Defend the ball handler, which requires help, or defend the floor spacers parked in their favorite spots at the 3-point line. In games 3-6, the Suns proved themselves incapable of winning with a help-defense scheme. Except for that crazy, ref-aided, 27-4 run in the third quarter of game 5, the Mavs had them whipped.
The game 7 adjustment? They stopped helping off of the 3-point line.
Now, if that were a good idea, Coach of the Year Monty Williams probably would’ve started the series that way. And the Jazz probably would’ve figured it out in round 1.
Think of it this way: Tell your slowest, weakest defender to switch onto Luka, Spencer, or Jalen, and then defend without help. And that’s your defensive game plan.
Is it really THAT surprising those 3 converted 12/19, 11/15, and 11/19 field goals respectively? Yes, that’s 64% shooting. (1.5 points per shot if I subtracted free throws correctly.) But what would you expect the 3 amigos to shoot against an unaided Bismack Biyombo or vertically challenged Chris Paul? Even for Ayton, that’s simply too much to ask. (Imagine Phil Jackson doing this to Shaq.)
Which brings us to the WCFs and Golden State. What they got, defensively, that Phoenix don’t got?
Answer: nothing.
Best argument I can muster is this. Phoenix really couldn’t sit Ayton and play small ball without further alienating their already alienated young star. The Warriors, in contrast, LOVE to go small.
But is small the answer here? How’s small gonna help you defend Luka drives 1-on-1? How’s small gonna help you defend the 3-point line if you’re helping on the drive? Does it even matter there’s no Gobert-like center for Luka to hunt if you’ve got 185 lb Steph Curry or 194 lb Jordan Poole out there? Won’t Luka shoot 12/19 or better against these “too f’n small” dudes too?
I’m guessing small ball is no advantage for the Warriors in this matchup. And I’m guessing the Mavs have grown confident and comfortable enough in what they’re trying to do to continue to do it at the league-leading pace they’ve established. It’s been pretty much the same since the calendar changed 5 months ago, no?
Mavs in 5. NBA finals, here we come!
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