PLAYOFFS WCF: #3 GSW (4-1) vs #4 DAL (1-4)

[Chicagojk]

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...4717143040

I believe blitzing Steph is a lot less useful when they have Draymond.  In fact, they probably prefer to have Draymond have the ball and Steph move off the ball.    Without Draymond, they really have no one to play make and get Steph good looks.  

I am sure we will miss things up a lot though.   I think I would try to make Draymond a scorer.    See if he makes you pay scoring at the rim or by taking open shots.   It has been typically out of his nature the last few years.

[SleepingHero]

Quick overview of regular season games: 

Jan 05 home 99-82 W - no Kristaps, no Klay - Dirk Jersey Retirement
Jan 25 away 92-130 L - no Draymond - game THJ got hurt in Q2
---- KP trade ---
Feb 28 away 107 -101 W - no Klay, Draymond - 21pt comeback victory
Mar 04 home 122-113 W - no Maxi, no Draymond

so it's hard to compare these games with Warriors never being at full strength

Draymond changes everything. Klay also changes everything. GSW shouldn't be taken lightly. Thankfully they don't have one of the best SF to ever play the game flanking the best shooter ever and probably the 2nd best shooter ever now. 

Best gameplan should be to make Draymond take every single shot


Adding onto this, I wonder if Kidd is going to take from his strategy he implemented against the Suns in games 3-7 against CP3 with Steph. Making Steph defend PnR after PnR should wear him down. Steph also isn't nearly as crafty as CP3 on defense.

[Jommybone]

I predicted Warriors in 5. I think it could be a sweep for Golden State. They’ll keep games close and win in the end with their experience. I think they have enough bodies to rotate in-and-out to stay fresh on defending Luka. I think they’ll be able to stay home on shooters. I think reality will finally set in on some of the roster limitations that we were all aware of before the postseason started. Nice season though!

You regularly spew serious shit about your own team, sir. But this take seems eminently reasonable to me. Even with my homer ears on. The Warriors of yesteryear were awesome. And whatever is there right now, it doesn’t seem to be who they were most of THIS season. (If it were, the Mavs would spank them easy.) So maybe they’re the veteran team with lots of bodies to rotate in fresh and slow Luka. Maybe. 

But I sure would’ve thought the Suns would be the team to do that. Now that was a deep team. Or so it seemed before learning Cam Payne, Cam Johnson, Torrey Craig, Javale McGee, and even DeAndre Ayton couldn’t stay on the court against Luka.

Going into the playoffs, looked to me like 3 teams were primed to lay a big fat egg. The imploding Utah Jazz, the depleted Denver Nuggets, and the moldy oldy Golden State Warriors. Especially the Warriors, who lost 16 out of 23 through a stretch of February through the end of March. Their 5-0 record in April looked like fool’s gold to me, the wins coming against flailing Utah, inept Sacramento, collapsing Los Angeles, resting San Antonio, and unmotivated New Orleans. 

Neither did they impress round 2 against the Ja-less Grizzlies. So why expect them to play like they did in the days of Kevin Durant? I don’t. And I won’t. But sure, it could happen. 

What really surprises me though is the doubters here. Maybe it’s not the same people. I haven’t checked. But fearing these fellas while despairing over Maxi’s age (30) is laughable. Steph Curry (34), Draymond Green (32), Klay Thompson (32), Andre Iguodala (38). 

Don’t get me wrong. I think 32 is about the apex. Nothing wrong with 34. But that means 30 is still wet behind the ears. And Jonathan Kuminga (19), though loaded with potential, is simply not a threat. 

BTW, hoping to see a “No Series for Old Men” meme by the time this one’s over.

[windjc]

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...4717143040

Playing mind games already lol.

[VintagePejav2]

Playing mind games already lol.

Kerr is an absolute clown.

[Kammrath]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wev...orry-luka/

They adjusted the RAPTOR model and now it is saying 54% chance the Mavs win the series with GSW (down from 73%).

[KillerLeft]

They adjusted the RAPTOR model and now it is saying 54% chance the Mavs win the series with GSW (down from 73%).

I am just a cave man. Your math and percentages, they frighten me. 

All I know is that the only team I was scared of in the West this year is now in the rear view mirror. Mavs in 5 or 6, tbh.

[BolsDamols]

This GSW WCF feels like the Suns series from 2006. We had overcome the bigger and more difficult challenge in Tim Duncan and the Spurs in 7 games (similar to this year's Suns series) with Dirk heroics to send the game to OT . After that, the Nash-Marion Suns were an easier match up and we dispatched them in 6. Next up were the Heat, and we all know what happened there.

Mavs in 5 or 6 then we face the Heat again in the finals for the 3rd time.

[vfromlmf]

Steph, Klay and Draymond can play, no doubt. But the Warriors need Poole to play like a splash brother for 30+ min to win. Let's not forget the kid is 22, has never been to the WCF, and was a streaky backup two months ago. And he's never been hunted and relentlessly attacked by Luka. 

Poole's Cinderella story ends. Warriors exposed for lack of depth and versatility. 

Mavs in 6.

[michaeltex]

Playing mind games already lol.

That's my biggest concern...that they get inside DAL's collective head and win the game between the ears. I THINK Kidd is good enough to not let that happen, but I don't want a repeat of the 2007 GSW series. I also think Luka is experienced enough to use it not lose it, but I can see Green trying to bait reactions out of other key players to disrupt the Mav's game plan.

But in the heat of battle, sh*t happens.

[Paul Gasol]

This GSW WCF feels like the Suns series from 2006. We had overcome the bigger and more difficult challenge in Tim Duncan and the Spurs in 7 games (similar to this year's Suns series) with Dirk heroics to send the game to OT . After that, the Nash-Marion Suns were an easier match up and we dispatched them in 6. Next up were the Heat, and we all know what happened there.

Mavs in 5 or 6 then we face the Heat again in the finals for the 3rd time.

There are quite a lot of narratives going on this post-season actually. Apart from the obvious “We believe” year we haven’t had revenge for yet, I just checked, and in our championship year, before losing to us in the finals, the Heat played the bulls, the CELTICS and the 76ERS…

I’m not saying it’s likely, but an improbable championship run would certainly exercise some demons, and also have history repeat itself in quite a few ways…

[Mapka]

That's my biggest concern...that they get inside DAL's collective head and win the game between the ears. I THINK Kidd is good enough to not let that happen, but I don't want a repeat of the 2007 GSW series. I also think Luka is experienced enough to use it not lose it, but I can see Green trying to bait reactions out of other key players to disrupt the Mav's game plan.

But in the heat of battle, sh*t happens.

That's what I like about our team: if it's Maxi, DFS, Bullock, Powell or Brunson, they take it and give it back on the court.
The only one who sometimes gets distracted is Luka. But in the playoffs? He just seems to be another beast.

[vfromlmf]

https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2022/5...uka-doncic

Nice in depth series preview. Interesting the highlighted Mavs defensive breakdowns featured guys like Chriss and Bertans. Note the Bertans play had nothing to do with lack of lateral movement of any other typical Bertans knock. It was mental. He just didn't switch correctly. I thought he did a much better job defensively against the Suns and hope he may be catching on to the Mavs defensive system. Bertans has length to bother guys if he makes the right defensive reads. You don't have to be a gifted one-on-one defender to succeed against a motion offense, but you need to be smart. 

As a side note, BBIQ is a vastly underrated skill in the Roster thread. We like to talk about swapping out a Stanford guy like Powell for a young guy like Jalen Smith or PJ Washington without the slightest consideration for whether or not they can execute Kidd's defensive game plan. Powell has limitations to be sure but he's WAY underrated for his intelligence in reading angles and executing at a high level both offensively and defensively.

[VintagePejav2]

https://youtu.be/QLHG2rmE3zc

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...1787724800

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/FTFonFS1/status/1526921060108599296

[VintagePejav2]

https://twitter.com/FTFonFS1/status/1526921060108599296

Lol.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...9526225921

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/3392...nce-finals


ESPN writers don't give them or the Heat much of a chance...

[Okstate819]

Love this group. Awesome video for anyone who hasnt seen. Mavs in 6.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdkhrdL0Oqs