PLAYOFFS WCF: #3 GSW (4-1) vs #4 DAL (1-4)

[KillerLeft]

Vegas doesn't "believe" in anyone....Vegas gauges public opinion and places its line as to encourage the public to bet. Vegas aims for equal bets on both sides of their line.

Yeah, I saw a comparison somewhere between "market based" predictions and 538. Wildly different, no doubt due to predicting public perception. The goal is to make money, after all. 

I have noticed that some of the smarter analysts are starting to board the Mavs train today. 

I don't know if I expect our Mavs to beat Boston or MIA, but I'll be pretty surprised if they don't make fairly short work of the Warriors.

[mvossman]

538's RAPTOR prediction has the Mavs with a 73% chance to beat GSW and a 35% chance of winning the title. Crazy.

Mavs are a "pick'em" in each road game against GSW and 7 pt favs at home. 

Interesting that the Warriors have a higher current rating than full strength rating.  I'm guessing that is due to Wiseman, and I don't disagree with that assessment.

Although I assume this was based on regular season play, and as we have seen the playoffs are a different beast.  I'm guessing the Suns were the highest on this list.

[mvossman]

Yeah, I saw a comparison somewhere between "market based" predictions and 538. Wildly different, no doubt due to predicting public perception. The goal is to make money, after all. 

I have noticed that some of the smarter analysts are starting to board the Mavs train today. 

I don't know if I expect our Mavs to beat Boston or MIA, but I'll be pretty surprised if they don't make fairly short work of the Warriors.

I would be surprised.  I think its going 6 or 7 and could go either way.  Golden state is a very good team who have gotten fully healthy, know how to win and have home court.  I have generally been on the side of the fence of thinking we were better than most folks gave us credit for and was in the minority in thinking we were only one piece away, and that piece didn't need to be a star.  I'm not sure that's still not the case.  If we make quick work of Golden State then I am ready to admit we are even better than I thought.

[Halfnir]

Quick overview of regular season games: 

Jan 05 home 99-82 W - no Kristaps, no Klay - Dirk Jersey Retirement
Jan 25 away 92-130 L - no Draymond - game THJ got hurt in Q2
---- KP trade ---
Feb 28 away 107 -101 W - no Klay, Draymond - 21pt comeback victory
Mar 04 home 122-113 W - no Maxi, no Draymond

so it's hard to compare these games with Warriors never being at full strength

[Hogmelon]

538 starting to give a little respect.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...id=rrpromo

538's RAPTOR prediction has the Mavs with a 73% chance to beat GSW and a 35% chance of winning the title. Crazy.

Mavs are a "pick'em" in each road game against GSW and 7 pt favs at home. 

Yep. But Vegas still doesn't believe in Luka. They have GSW -5 to -5.5 over Dallas in game one and around 2-1 to win the series.

Vegas doesn't "believe" in anyone....Vegas gauges public opinion and places its line as to encourage the public to bet. Vegas aims for equal bets on both sides of their line.

Yeah, I saw a comparison somewhere between "market based" predictions and 538. Wildly different, no doubt due to predicting public perception. The goal is to make money, after all. 

I have noticed that some of the smarter analysts are starting to board the Mavs train today. 

I don't know if I expect our Mavs to beat Boston or MIA, but I'll be pretty surprised if they don't make fairly short work of the Warriors.

Interesting that the Warriors have a higher current rating than full strength rating.  I'm guessing that is due to Wiseman, and I don't disagree with that assessment.

Although I assume this was based on regular season play, and as we have seen the playoffs are a different beast.  I'm guessing the Suns were the highest on this list.

I would be surprised.  I think its going 6 or 7 and could go either way.  Golden state is a very good team who have gotten fully healthy, know how to win and have home court.  I have generally been on the side of the fence of thinking we were better than most folks gave us credit for and was in the minority in thinking we were only one piece away, and that piece didn't need to be a star.  I'm not sure that's still not the case.  If we make quick work of Golden State then I am ready to admit we are even better than I thought.

Compare 538's RAPTOR-based forecast to the Elo forecast:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...edictions/


Also see:

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/

[Kammrath]

Here is the Elo-forecast ("Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.")....

[mvossman]

Here is the Elo-forecast ("Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.")....

That one meets my eye test better.  Looks about right to me.

[MaxiThreeba]

Saw a clip of Kerr where he said Mavs were a lot like the Rockets team they faced and Luka was a lot like Harden.  

My first thought was I really hope they think Luka is Harden and don’t realize he is a totally different animal.  Unfortunately I don’t think we are that lucky.  Think Kerr was just comping the 5 out offense with a focal player handling a lot of the load. 

My second thought was need to go back and watch some of that series and see how they tried to play Harden.

[Hogmelon]

Compare 538's RAPTOR-based forecast to the Elo forecast:

...

Here is the Elo-forecast ("Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.")....

Thanks, Kammrath.

[VintagePejav2]

https://theathletic.com/3313738/2022/05/...dailyemail&campaign=601983

Consensus is Warriors win.

Scout says Mavs in 6. Coach says Warriors in 5. Executive says Warriors in 6.

[cow]

Vegas doesn't "believe" in anyone....Vegas gauges public opinion and places its line as to encourage the public to bet. Vegas aims for equal bets on both sides of their line.

It's almost as if sports books want to make money.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1526646908046876672

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...4717143040

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status...5572412416

[Jym]

I think it's clear we'll get the better, higher quality shots
Just have to make them!

[burekemde]

This one. Dallas might win 4-0. A sweep. We are the better team, featuring the better more robust system, and by far the best player. I believe that the Mavs will come right of the start and wear them down, and will place the pressure on the GSW immediately to try to adjust their schemes. I dont see Luka calming down for a single play, and will attack right away.

Luka always plays magical against GSW. This does mean something in sports psychology. Another thing is that the team got that sense now of urgency and confidence to do well away against a non friendly crowd. This could translate well immediately and to silence that crowd as soon as from game 1. They don't have that big that can disturb Luka enough inside. If they opt for switching strategy, it will be ton of alley oops to Powell. If they chose to fight through the screens they dont have that guy that can do that and cover Luka well enough. On other side if they dont fight through it and let Green take on Luka after pick and roll, they will not be able to stop Powell. Powell will feature alot alot more in this series. Suns chose to back down with Ayton and cover Powell/rim, and Luka has learned to exploit this as the series progressed and adjusted with more attacking the rim and more mid range game. GSW will approach this in completely different manner and let Green take on Luka initially after the pick and roll is set, and then Luka will naturally involve Powell. GSW will then try readjusting as we go through the series, but the experience Luka gained from Suns series with a Center that backs down and focuses on Powell, will gain him the knowledge how to deal with this later adjustments from GSW. They will also try to get help inside from perimeter, but Luka will pick that apart for finding the open guy. And here the key will be the shooting from our team. This is hard to predict, but the team is shooting well in these open situations at this very moment, so this doesn't look as a viable strategy for the GSW.

On other end of the floor, Dallas has been amazing on defense and defending the 3. Warriors dont have that big that can make us switch that strategy and reshape our defensive tactics. In fact in many ways, the way they play is playing in favour of our defensive strategy.

I see Mavs as the clearly more physical team playing better defense, and having an offensive system that GSW will have hard time stopping.

Klay Thompson did play excellent D and did disturb Luka early in his career, he couldnt stop Luka, but he did had some plays and sequenves in my memory where he did managed to disturb him. This season in games against GSW he wasnt able to disturb Luka in any way, and he is probably not the defender he used to be. Green can make some great D inside, but he is not a Gobert, and even with Gobert, Luka got the best out in the lane many times and outside. He can get the shot over Green, and if on perimeter he will be able to drive on Green with ease. Thompson is the only one Ive seen from GSW that was able to have that combination of both able to disturb Luka at perimeter and inside, but all of that is not from this season, and even then Luka got plenty of points.

I do think that Suns are the clearly better team than the GSW are. I see this matchup as working more in our favour than the Suns one. GSW has experience, but many of their new players, do not. The ones that do, are clearly declining. I see also our coaching as advantage. To me this all speaks to Dallas will win with ease and GSW will be the team that will need to constantly adjust to Mavs, but I dont see they have it what needs to be done. It may be 4-1 or 4-0, but I'm sensing that either way, Dallas will win with a huge statement.

Heat are the team left that defensively have some concepts and extreme well timed and executed switching ability, that might give trouble to our offensive schemes. They have the ability to double Luka, and still compensate with switching to neutralize the disadvantage. A lot more all around defense. Luckely we can also match them well with defense. But this would be a matchup, as the Suns, I would fear. Still Impressed how Mavs adjusted throughout, and to an extent where Suns couldnt make a single mid range shot, which otherwise was their key weapon. Truly impressive.

[VintagePejav2]

I predicted Warriors in 5. I think it could be a sweep for Golden State. They’ll keep games close and win in the end with their experience. I think they have enough bodies to rotate in-and-out to stay fresh on defending Luka. I think they’ll be able to stay home on shooters. I think reality will finally set in on some of the roster limitations that we were all aware of before the postseason started. Nice season though!

#MFFL

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You also can’t rule out Kerr sending a goon in to take out Luka like Zaza did to Kawhi in 2017. Kerr is a major hypocrite with his “broke the code” crap and history of confronting opposing players on the court over “dirty” plays. I still hate Steve Kerr from the 2003 WCF, jerk.

[burekemde]

#MFFL

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You also can’t rule out Kerr sending a goon in to take out Luka like Zaza did to Kawhi in 2017. Kerr is a major hypocrite with his “broke the code” crap and history of confronting opposing players on the court over “dirty” plays. I still hate Steve Kerr from the 2003 WCF, jerk.

I think we have learned a lot from Clippers. So far we have been the ones beating down teams physically, and in completely legal ways always. Some dirty cheap shots will be thrown our way, it may happen. But the way Luka responded to those in the former series, is showing a player with way more experience now. If that was last year Luka he would have been ejected long time ago and we would have been out of playoffs at this stage. I think we will wear them down relatively quickly, a quick knockout.

[burekemde]

I think they have enough bodies to rotate in-and-out to stay fresh on defending Luka.

So far Luka has been dictating the matchups. He will call the player over he wants and wear them down, it might be Curry or Poole or Green he will prefer. If GSW chose not to make the switch and prefer to fight through the screen, Luka will either have a clear lane to the basket or an open player at perimeter if help comes. He is way too good to let that pass up. Other teams were simply forced to be dictated who comes over to Luka. I dont see GSW able to change that up.

[cow]

I predicted Warriors in 5. I think it could be a sweep for Golden State.

You can't rule out Mark Cuban shutting the team down after going 0-3 in the series and then going on to become a professional Bitcoin miner.  Dubs in 3.