2019-2020 Mavs Trade Discussion + Salary Chart

[omahen]

Some Covid-19 implications regarding the upcoming offseason as I see them:

THJ will definitely opt into the final year of his deal.  That gives the team certainty for 2020, but keeping him in 21 eats into cap room.  I'm not sure it will matter as Dallas won't have enough room to fit in a max player in 21 in a reduced cap world.  Dallas could certainly extend THJ for additional years once he opts in.  Or, they could wait until the next summer (21) and see how things play out.  Depending on cap projections, it might serve both parties well to get something done sooner rather than later.

If the season is delayed, it is that much longer Powell has to rehab.

Giannis should take his super-max this summer with a short opt-out window.  Max deals (and super-max deals) are a percentage of the cap.  The cap will presumably be lower when his super-max kicks in than it will be the year after or the year after that.  Such a plan would likely make 22 or 23 the year to contend for his services.  He might not be the only player to extend rather than be free in 21 (see Beal, Bradley).  In uncertain times, take certainty.  If so, the great free agency year of 21 starts to look less attractive.

The Atlanta's of the world will still have significant cap room next summer.  But, there will be a bunch of players who projected to be in the $10-$17 million area who may have to take one year MLE deals.  That opens up an opportunity for good teams to use the MLE to get someone they might not have gotten otherwise.  Depending on the new cap, there might not be anyone with the cap room to go over the MLE except for a very few awful franchises.  At that point, free agents are shopping for situations to raise their profile to cash in the next summer.  If I were an agent and saw what Luka does for his teammates numbers, I might direct my guy to take money from Dallas.  

I see trading picks for good players as an even more viable path to upgrading.  Take Gallinari for instance.  Dallas and Miami reportedly wanted to extend him at his current $22mm salary int 20-21 and he said no wanting a long term deal this summer.  That contract will be harder to come by now, plus Dallas and Miami probably weren't contenders for his services on a multi-year basis as they were hoarding 21 cap space.  If most of the top 21 free agents are off the board, does it make sense to trade for a win-now over-the-MLE guy like Gallinari instead of waiting to use a reduced amount of 2021 cap space?  The other opportunity may be 2021 RFA's who think they deserve more than their current teams will be willing to pay.  Would it be better for their teams to get a player and some picks now?  Probably.

The draft is more of a crap-shoot than ever.  This could be an advantage if you have an inside track on someone (like we've had with certain Euro's over the years).  Or, it might mean we value the draft even less than usual.  If there was ever going to be a nuclear winter where weak hands sell assets, it might be this summer.  Many have said Dallas needs two more good players.  I think the path is to grab one using the MLE to get someone who wasn't projected to be within reach.  I think the other path is to grab a 2021 RFA that the current team is afraid to keep in trade using our draft assets.  I have thoughts on both strategies, but will save that for another day.

Great to read these thoughts. A couple of other implications of considerably lower cap (if it happens):
1. Teams with bird rights will have huge advantage and those players are less likely to hit free agency. 
2. Cap space will become more valuable. While good players might not be willing to sign with dumpster fire teams like Charlotte or Atlanta, some teams with bloated contracts might be willing to pay to get rid of some good players on a bit too high contracts. Or at least give them away for nothing serious.
3. A couple of teams are already projected way over the old tax limit. Their tax bills might just become considerably higher. So teams like GSW, Philly, Brooklyn and Boston might be looking to reduce their salaries. 

Based on this a couple of thoughts:
- Philly tax bill will be huge. Their salaries will be at 147 mil in 2020 with just eleven players under contract . Season looks lost in any case for them and bigger changes might be coming. Either they trade one of Embiid/Simmons without taking considerable salary back or beg someone to take Horford or Harris. Teams with cap space might benefit from this. 
- Brooklyn is in a similar position. over 135 of salaries even if they renounce Temple and Pinson and with just 11 players under contract. I can't see them offering more than MLE to Harris (if even that much). I would explore SnT here, if I was them. Jordan contract is a disaster but he is buddy buddy with their stars, so they will be paying it. Dinwiddie will certainly opt out in 2021 and there is no way they will have money to resign him - so trade might be considered. Same goes for Allen. However, I find it difficult for Dallas to jump in on any action with Nets as we don't have cap space.
- For Boston Kanter and Theiss contracts might become too high to keep. Or they explore trading Hayward for less salary.

As for free agents. I am 99 % sure Gallo, Harkless, Bertans and Bogi are staying where they are, unless really good SnT offers come to the table. They will get over MLE and their teams can afford it. Harris and Harrell are over MLE guys, where their current teams most likely can't afford to pay it. Beasley will either stay in Minny or get a ridiculous offer from a desperate team with cap space (Detroit, Charlotte, Atlanta). Wood seems in similar situation. Vets like Gasol, Ibaka are unlikely to get offers above the MLE. Millsap is probably in the same situation. Favors market is a bit more difficult to estimate. There are plenty of interesting MLE or below players available: Poeltl, both Hernangomez brothers, Giles, Jones Jr. are UFA, Poeltl, Dunn, Valentine, Saric are RFA. They can all be considered to have an upside in a correct situation and role.

Dallas is in a solid position, but so are many other teams. We don't have cap space but we can afford to take more salaries. We have solid role players, but some of those contracts (like Wright) will be much less appealing in a lower tax cap situation. Combination of rookie scale contracts, picks and cap space is a winning combination in this period. 

We will have 11 players under contract if Barea retires and WCS opts out or 13 if both stay. MKG is gone imho. No one from main rotation is leaving, Powell will probably miss a chunk of next season while JJ and Bobi can be seen as guys on roles 11-15. PG position is full with Luka, Wright and Brunson (as long as we don't trade any of them) and SG with THJ and Seth. Both Wright and Brunson are too good to be third string PG, so I would look to trade one. We need back up center with plenty of vet min guys available - WCS is also just fine if he decides to stay. We are short on wing positions. One able to guard opponents best player on positions 1-3 and the other on positions 3-4. 

Jones Jr. could be interesting for guarding positions 1-3, but he has zero 3 - younger and less reliable version of DFS. Saric and Hernangomez could be interesting rotation guys for 3-4 position. Valentine could be interesting bench scoring spark. Unless a good trade opportunity happens, I would try to build a team like this:

PG: Luka, Wright, Brunson
SG: THJ, Seth, Valentine (half of MLE), Reeves
SF: DFS, #18 rookie, JJ
PF: Kleber, J. Hernangomez (half of MLE)
C: KP, WCS (or W. Hernangomez for vet min), Bobi

Two way: #31 rookie, whoever