03-29-2020, 08:26 AM
Some Covid-19 implications regarding the upcoming offseason as I see them:
THJ will definitely opt into the final year of his deal. That gives the team certainty for 2020, but keeping him in 21 eats into cap room. I'm not sure it will matter as Dallas won't have enough room to fit in a max player in 21 in a reduced cap world. Dallas could certainly extend THJ for additional years once he opts in. Or, they could wait until the next summer (21) and see how things play out. Depending on cap projections, it might serve both parties well to get something done sooner rather than later.
If the season is delayed, it is that much longer Powell has to rehab.
Giannis should take his super-max this summer with a short opt-out window. Max deals (and super-max deals) are a percentage of the cap. The cap will presumably be lower when his super-max kicks in than it will be the year after or the year after that. Such a plan would likely make 22 or 23 the year to contend for his services. He might not be the only player to extend rather than be free in 21 (see Beal, Bradley). In uncertain times, take certainty. If so, the great free agency year of 21 starts to look less attractive.
The Atlanta's of the world will still have significant cap room next summer. But, there will be a bunch of players who projected to be in the $10-$17 million area who may have to take one year MLE deals. That opens up an opportunity for good teams to use the MLE to get someone they might not have gotten otherwise. Depending on the new cap, there might not be anyone with the cap room to go over the MLE except for a very few awful franchises. At that point, free agents are shopping for situations to raise their profile to cash in the next summer. If I were an agent and saw what Luka does for his teammates numbers, I might direct my guy to take money from Dallas.
I see trading picks for good players as an even more viable path to upgrading. Take Gallinari for instance. Dallas and Miami reportedly wanted to extend him at his current $22mm salary int 20-21 and he said no wanting a long term deal this summer. That contract will be harder to come by now, plus Dallas and Miami probably weren't contenders for his services on a multi-year basis as they were hoarding 21 cap space. If most of the top 21 free agents are off the board, does it make sense to trade for a win-now over-the-MLE guy like Gallinari instead of waiting to use a reduced amount of 2021 cap space? The other opportunity may be 2021 RFA's who think they deserve more than their current teams will be willing to pay. Would it be better for their teams to get a player and some picks now? Probably.
The draft is more of a crap-shoot than ever. This could be an advantage if you have an inside track on someone (like we've had with certain Euro's over the years). Or, it might mean we value the draft even less than usual. If there was ever going to be a nuclear winter where weak hands sell assets, it might be this summer. Many have said Dallas needs two more good players. I think the path is to grab one using the MLE to get someone who wasn't projected to be within reach. I think the other path is to grab a 2021 RFA that the current team is afraid to keep in trade using our draft assets. I have thoughts on both strategies, but will save that for another day.
THJ will definitely opt into the final year of his deal. That gives the team certainty for 2020, but keeping him in 21 eats into cap room. I'm not sure it will matter as Dallas won't have enough room to fit in a max player in 21 in a reduced cap world. Dallas could certainly extend THJ for additional years once he opts in. Or, they could wait until the next summer (21) and see how things play out. Depending on cap projections, it might serve both parties well to get something done sooner rather than later.
If the season is delayed, it is that much longer Powell has to rehab.
Giannis should take his super-max this summer with a short opt-out window. Max deals (and super-max deals) are a percentage of the cap. The cap will presumably be lower when his super-max kicks in than it will be the year after or the year after that. Such a plan would likely make 22 or 23 the year to contend for his services. He might not be the only player to extend rather than be free in 21 (see Beal, Bradley). In uncertain times, take certainty. If so, the great free agency year of 21 starts to look less attractive.
The Atlanta's of the world will still have significant cap room next summer. But, there will be a bunch of players who projected to be in the $10-$17 million area who may have to take one year MLE deals. That opens up an opportunity for good teams to use the MLE to get someone they might not have gotten otherwise. Depending on the new cap, there might not be anyone with the cap room to go over the MLE except for a very few awful franchises. At that point, free agents are shopping for situations to raise their profile to cash in the next summer. If I were an agent and saw what Luka does for his teammates numbers, I might direct my guy to take money from Dallas.
I see trading picks for good players as an even more viable path to upgrading. Take Gallinari for instance. Dallas and Miami reportedly wanted to extend him at his current $22mm salary int 20-21 and he said no wanting a long term deal this summer. That contract will be harder to come by now, plus Dallas and Miami probably weren't contenders for his services on a multi-year basis as they were hoarding 21 cap space. If most of the top 21 free agents are off the board, does it make sense to trade for a win-now over-the-MLE guy like Gallinari instead of waiting to use a reduced amount of 2021 cap space? The other opportunity may be 2021 RFA's who think they deserve more than their current teams will be willing to pay. Would it be better for their teams to get a player and some picks now? Probably.
The draft is more of a crap-shoot than ever. This could be an advantage if you have an inside track on someone (like we've had with certain Euro's over the years). Or, it might mean we value the draft even less than usual. If there was ever going to be a nuclear winter where weak hands sell assets, it might be this summer. Many have said Dallas needs two more good players. I think the path is to grab one using the MLE to get someone who wasn't projected to be within reach. I think the other path is to grab a 2021 RFA that the current team is afraid to keep in trade using our draft assets. I have thoughts on both strategies, but will save that for another day.