(01-18-2020, 11:23 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: I think Lee for Dieng helps the goals of both Dallas and Minnesota. The TWolves save money now and clear space in the summer with Lee's expiring contract. Dallas gets a useful backup big who can hit a 3, play good D and set good screens. He's a fantastic fit here and provides KP injury insurance. He may not be the absolutely best way to use Lee. So, Dallas might insist on adding more pieces to any deal. We all assume Dallas wants RoCo. But he plays a lot of PF and we don't have the minutes at C/PF for RoCo, KP, Powell, Maxi and Dieng. Roco also pushes additional salary into 2021 (which might not be ideal for Dallas). I think RoCo fits much better with GS. I think Wright would be very good in the Livingston role and Jackson's drive and floater game would play well with Golden State's spacing. So, I'm giving RoCo to GS along with Wright and Jackson to help Minnesota land Russell.When I first read this I was thinking, how can I tell Dan he's crazy (in a respectful way) to think we could get Culver from Min who I believe is the reason they are willing to let RoCo go, and then not even get a wing back in return. I was thinking Okogie would be the return that Min was willing to part with and started to think up how the trade works swapping him for Culver. I didn't have time before going to a movie, so I waited to return from the movie (Dr. Doolittle with my tomorrow 8 year old and a few of his friends).
The question is what about Dallas. I'm giving Culver to Dallas. He can start out as the SF off the bench (joining Brunson, Seth, Maxi and Dieng). But, he has much more upside than Wright or Jackson. Getting him is a good move for the present, but might be a great move for the future. Crabbe taking the place of Culver for the rest of the season makes more sense than retaining Teague (GS had no use for Teague). Here is what I think is interesting. If GS got a TPE for Graham, I think there is a deal out there that gets both GS and Minnesota just under the LT line, uses the extra salary slot Minnesota created and accomplishes their dual goal of getting Russell while still having some space this summer.
Dallas ends up with Dieng/Culver (I'm thrilled)
GS ends up with Wright (takes the Livingston role), RoCo (value is obvious) and Jackson. I think that's a good haul for their Russell rental.
Minnesota ends up with Russell, Lee and a couple of minor contracts from GS.
The trade checkers aren't helpful here, but I think it has to be two smaller contracts to make the deal work. One fits into the Graham TPE and the other has to be combined with Lee and Russell. The size is limited because Minnesota can only take back $41.78 million and Russell and Lee make $40,044,000 of that. If Burks and Robinson go to Minnesota, the deal is legal and both teams get under the tax. Now, suddenly the Teague deal makes sense in terms of Crabbe's position (replacing Culver), the money and the need for an extra roster spot.
You heard it here first.
On the way home as I was thinking about it, I was saying to myself, well, why is it so bad? Okogie for sure is not worth the return for us, and Culver, while a great prospect, is not currently showing he's a starter for the Timberwolves. I was also trying to poke holes in the value return to all teams, and other than a couple picks going to GSW because a young all star is just worth that much, I was finding the exercise pretty hard to find the chink.
I got home and went into tradenba to see it in that format. Money-wise it does work. Talent-wise, I think GS is short on value and what better than their own pick to add that value? Is just getting their own pick back enough? Well, Min giving up Culver and RoCo is a good amount of value, but then they also get to clear a ton of capspace through Dieng? They should probably add more to this because of what they're getting in Russell IMO (their 2021 first to GSW?).
To recap and put it all into prospective:
GSW gets Wright, RoCo, JJ, their own 2020 second back and Min's 2021 first. That actually sounds like a pretty good haul, however, that would have to compete with their thought of what Russell and their own 1st this year could get in return. That's probably a pretty high end player (Beal?). I still think it's close, and pulling the trigger now as opposed to later helps the new teammates acclimate themselves to the team and system now as opposed to in the off season and beginning of the year.
Min gets Russell and cap space to go into the off season to be big time buyers with a core of KAT/Russell/Wiggins. That's really all the scoring they need, they would want defensive aces to fill in from there.
As far as us, it looks like Culver will be a guy similar to RoCo who fills the stat sheet and is a good defender (not sure whether he'll be a defensive stopper, haven't watched him enough). He would come off the bench at least through the end of the year, then compete with DFS for the starting spot next year. So, Lee, Wright, JJ and GSW 2nd for Dieng and Culver? I think that's pretty close, Culver at 20 yo fits Luka's timeline much more than RoCo, so it would still be that work in progress, but Culver will get some playoff experience this year which will be good to get him with his team of the future. Also, Dieng is a rotation player, just not a $16M one.