04-30-2022, 07:21 PM
(04-30-2022, 02:39 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I've found myself "liking" a lot of JBone posts lately too. So, back at you. The logic is that margin doesn't care where it occurs and it isn't limited to the headliners. If we win the series it will be because of lots of little things. For instance, there are all sorts of scapegoats in Utah right now and the stars get most of the attention. But, the biggest performance spread was Mike Conley. He went from a +7.7 contributor in the regular season to a -9.2 buzz kill.
He's as steady as they come and I suspect very few had him listed as the key to the series. But, he was and it was on both ends of the court.
I like your liking! But I’m afraid I want to argue a little with your smart, stat-based take. (Which maybe means my take is dumb. Please hear me out anyway.)
Despite your stats (which surprised me), I just can’t lay the blame for the last series’ loss on Mike Conley. He couldn’t hit a 3, couldn’t contain JB, and had trouble staying on the court, all true. But the +/- numbers for his backup weren’t so hot either (Clarkson’s +18 in game 4 the only real exception.) And other than game 3, Conley’s on/off numbers were no worse than the team’s as a whole.
More importantly, as the teams made adjustments as the series wore on, Conley’s on/off numbers improved pretty dramatically. Game 5, Utah was a horrible -25, Clarkson -17, Conley just -7. Game 6 the Jazz lost by 2, Clarkson -5, Conley +2. Those were the deciding games. Conley’s +/- numbers don’t indicate that he was the reason for those losses. And he only got 22 minutes in Jalen’s breakout, 41-point game 2. So it’s hard for me to attribute that loss to him either.
At most, in my opinion, Conley cost his team game 3. There he was -16 in an 8-point loss, while shooting 6/14 from the field, 2/7 from deep, and 7/8 from the free-throw line for 21 points. Certainly not a choke job.
If I’m the Jazz, I blame the dramatic fall off in 3-point shooting attempts and accuracy for the loss. And I blame most of that on the ill-advised defensive strategy of wearing your best players out by asking them to work much, much harder on defense than they had all season long. Maybe I’m wrong about that. But it’s what it looked like to me.