04-30-2022, 03:04 PM
(04-30-2022, 10:10 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The first part of this is excellent. We are playing on house money compared to start-of-the-season goals. I do agree with windjc in that I wish you hadn't jumped to the off season. I tend to agree with what you said, but in this context, if feels like losing this series is a foregone conclusion.
My heart aligns with what windjc said. We are a different team since the new year. Our D did just dominate the number one offense in the league (regular season). Brunson did play at a level of confidence we've not seen before. And, you can throw out the regular season matchups. Two were in November and the third was was in January, but with KP still on the roster. With that said, I can't make the math work in our favor. I think there is a chance Luka/JB/SD outplays Paul/Booker/Payne...maybe a good chance. But Bridges/Crowder/Johnson > DFS/Reggie/Green and Ayton/McGee > Powell/Maxi. Part of Kidd's system has been to take away the other team's best player (Phoenix has two of them) and let the role players determine the game. Unfortunately, Phoenix doesn't have obvious holes and their role players can and will beat you.
Both teams are super heavy PnR offenses. Phoenix doesn't have any blow by players on offense and doesn't have Gobert waiting under the rim. But, man they are efficient. It will take a different strategy than simply taking away their three's. They are more than capable of beating you with mid-range shots. I think we have to "Conley-ize" the offense of either Paul or Booker and then hunt the other one and let Luka wear them down. But, our role players have to step up. Maxi only played one of the three Phoenix games this season and was 1/7 from three. He has to draw Ayton away from the basket. When Powell is in against Ayton, he won't be able to help as much as usual. Ayton isn't Gobert as he has many more tricks up his sleeve. Reggie was 1/9 from three in the three games...certainly room for improvement there. But, DFS shot .437 from three against Phoenix and was still -26 over the three games. So, clearly we need something more than just DFS playing well. SD has to outplay Payne and Maxi has to outplay McGee because Crowder will outplay whatever combination of Green/Bertans gets a few minutes in the first several games.
Since the beginning of the year, Phoenix is only 1.8 points in Net Rating better than Dallas. There is some noise there for both teams. Dallas is 115/109.2 and the Suns are 116.7/109.1 since 12/30. That is not insurmountable. The trick is Dallas has been DOMINANT at home and about even on the road and Phoenix is +8.4 at home and +7.0 on the road. They have home court advantage and have been a really good road team. Dallas absolutely has to get one win out of games 1, 2 and 5 as I doubt they hold serve at home.
If we can get to a game seven, anything can happen. The NBA could decide they want to help Paul finally get over the hump. Or, karma could once again find a strange way to rob him of yet another opportunity. Let's hope we get the opportunity to find out.
Some great points. Phoenix has more depth, yes, but we have by far the best player on the court, and likely the best on the planet. This changes a lot of things. This is the series Luka really explodes. He always does when we meet a team better than ours overall. I see Brunson stepping as well even more than before.