PLAYOFFS ROUND 2: #1 PHX (3-4) vs. #4 DAL (4-3) | DAL advances to WCF!

[ThisIStheYear]

It’s all pretty even except Ayton/McGee are clearly better than Powell/Maxi.  So, maybe the Mavs can get creative and find away to reduce the role of the big men and make this series mostly about wings and point guards, where they have a fighting chance. Ayton doesn’t seem easy to play off the floor. But McGee, maybe?

[burekemde]

It’s all pretty even except Ayton/McGee are clearly better than Powell/Maxi.  So, maybe the Mavs can get creative and find away to reduce the role of the big men and make this series mostly about wings and point guards, where they have a fighting chance. Ayton doesn’t seem easy to play off the floor. But McGee, maybe?

Ayton cant cover Maxi on defense at the 3. Maxi can cover Ayton when we play defense and give him plenty of trouble.

To me that sounds like we have the upper hand in this matchup.

Maxi is key to this series, as his skills translate to counter Ayton. More than Powell. Although pick and roll with Luka and Powell will be hard for Ayton as well.

[Jommybone]

It’s all pretty even except Ayton/McGee are clearly better than Powell/Maxi.  So, maybe the Mavs can get creative and find away to reduce the role of the big men and make this series mostly about wings and point guards, where they have a fighting chance. Ayton doesn’t seem easy to play off the floor. But McGee, maybe?

If it’s even elsewhere, we’re in trouble. Luka should be a huge advantage over Booker. And if Jalen isn’t better than senior citizen Paul, that’s a pretty bad sign too.

[Jommybone]

. . . You made the point that the upcoming series will be largely about Luka.  The corollary for the last series would be that it was largely about Gobert (or Mitchell).  It is rarely that simple.  

Mostly agree with you and only resorted to on/off numbers because I thought that was what you were relying on. But I do disagree with your conclusion above. In a single game, no. But in a 7-game series? Always seems to me that the best player/s dominate by a large margin or they don’t. When they don’t, it’s a toss up. The Jazz series wasn’t a toss up. I doubt the Suns series will be either. But I’m not sure which stars I expect to dominate.

[Winter]

While I generally favor Phoenix in a seven-game series, I will say this.

I think most of the games will be about who can make critical shots in crunch time. Dallas is much better this season than I thought they would be when the season started. They seem much more confident now. I think they are much better in pressure situations, and I think they have the right attitude.

I'm not sure we have enough depth to keep our energy up late in games, and I don't believe we can win a seventh game on their home court. But it does surprise me to think we could get that far now. And if we do, then... anything can happen.

[Jommybone]

While I generally favor Phoenix in a seven-game series, I will say this.

I think most of the games will be about who can make critical shots in crunch time. Dallas is much better this season than I thought they would be when the season started. They seem much more confident now. I think they are much better in pressure situations, and I think they have the right attitude.

I'm not sure we have enough depth to keep our energy up late in games, and I don't believe we can win a seventh game on their home court. But it does surprise me to think we could get that far now. And if we do, then... anything can happen.

Agree with you that confidence is very important. Who do you think will be more confident in this matchup, Mikal Bridges or the guy who was the alpha on his team only a few years back? 

Mikal on Jalen: “I just know he knows if he was the dude with the ball more in his hands, he’s going to dominate,” Bridges said. “I know that, as well. Just to see that coming to light when Luka was out for a couple games and (Brunson) literally going bonkers, I was literally just like, ‘That’s who he is.'” https://arizonasports.com/story/3127364/...n-brunson/  

[KillerLeft]

https://twitter.com/TheKobeBeef/status/1520829264295342080?s=20&t=Az_DaS6o8oKdMIjRXAgtxg

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Might be reading into the above too much, but it really doesn't seem like a quote from a coach who's dying to add Gobert to his roster next season to me.

[windjc]

I am glad some reasonable conversation has entered this thread and that at least some acknowledge that the Mavs can win this series. People acting like Booker, Ayton, and Paul are the second coming of Jordan, Pippen and Rodman need to back up.  If there is a Jordan in this series he is on the blue team.

[Winter]

I am glad some reasonable conversation has entered this thread and that at least some acknowledge that the Mavs can win this series

That's always been there. You thought it was "unreasonable" that we simply stated what every oddsmaker is stating - that across the board, Phoenix has more talent and depth.

Being the favorite doesn't mean you automatically win. Dallas wasn't favored in 2011 - and still won. In 6 games no less.

[Smitty]

Initially, I though Green could be a factor in this series, mostly to spell Reggie and Dorian, but it's clear that the Mavs are going to use a 7-man rotation. Luka only played 36 MPG against Utah, due to the calf. I expect him to be closer to what he was at last year against the Clippers (40.2 MPG). I don't see the Mavs playing RB or DFS less, against the better wings of PHX. Green/Bertans will strictly be foul trouble or spot minute players.

My X-factor this series is Spencer Dinwiddie. I don't think he'll shoot 29% from three like he did against Utah, and Ayton isn't Gobert. Game 6 gave him the boost he needed (19 points, 57% 3PT +12). We need his bench points and length!

Luka 40 / JB 8
JB 30 / SD 18
RB 32 / SD 16
DFS 38 / RB 10
DP 20 / MK 24 / DFS 4

Luka 40
Brunson 38
Bullock 42
DFS 42
Dinwiddie 34
Kleber 24
Powell 20

[michaeltex]

The first part of this is excellent.  We are playing on house money compared to start-of-the-season goals.  I do agree with windjc in that I wish you hadn't jumped to the off season.  I tend to agree with what you said, but in this context, if feels like losing this series is a foregone conclusion.  

Thanks for the comments. My offseason remark was not meant to be a negative in this series, although I can see it now on re-reading. I had been reading some of the trade talk and I was trying to make the point that higher level competition will stress the team and identify areas for improvement and areas of excellence. Win OR lose.


I stand by my comment that reducing CP3's efficiency will be key to success with PHX. I've seen him tie teams in knots for too many seasons not to respect his game. I hate him as an opponent, but I respect his competitiveness, even if it gets a little skanky sometimes.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1520930206437023745

[Smitty]

https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2022/05...th-belief/

[Smitty]

https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2022/05...-the-suns/

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...9653532672

[cow]

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...9653532672

But DFS is just  a "good" defender.

[chaparral]

Why is this playoff game not on Bally Sports?

[KillerLeft]

Why is this playoff game not on Bally Sports?

Pretty standard, I think, for 100% of games from round 2 on to be on either TNT or ABC.

[Kammrath]

1) JB and SD have to give the Mavs more moving forward. Saw some glimmers from both to give me a little hope.

2) If the Mavs are going to get dominated by Ayton they might as well go small the whole game. Small ball was by far the most effective in game 1.

3) The whole team, Luka included needs to come out in the first quarter with more focus, urgency, and intensity.

[MaxiThreeba]

1) JB and SD have to give the Mavs more moving forward. Saw some glimmers from both to give me a little hope.

2) If the Mavs are going to get dominated by Ayton they might as well go small the whole game. Small ball was by far the most effective in game 1.

3) The whole team, Luka included needs to come out in the first quarter with more focus, urgency, and intensity.

The way the Suns are playing the PnR means DP mucks up the entire operation.  I think that was the main issue with the first few possessions. 

Totally agree on JB and Spence.  I’ll give JB a mulligan because of the foul trouble.  Spence has got to find at least 70% of the groove he was in when he first got here. 

Assuming Maxi isn’t stuck in concussion protocol (big assumption) I think this series competitiveness hinges on JKidd’s willingness to make a quick adjustment and start Maxi over Powell; matching Powell up with the McGee minutes.  Game 3 or 4 will be too late, it needs to happen Wednesday. 

Mavs cannot consistently defend Ayton, but they can make him uncomfortable defensively and that extra load can have a tangible effect on his offense.