PLAYOFFS ROUND 2: #1 PHX (3-4) vs. #4 DAL (4-3) | DAL advances to WCF!

[ItsGoTime]

You can pay people to put their head up your ass, if you put your money, where your mouth is.

Just bet on the Mavs to make the finals, cause it´s 20-1, 7th best odds now that Embiid broke his face, otherwise we´d comfortably sit in 8th.

Yep, it’s not really betting if a person knows it’s such a sure thing!

[ItsGoTime]

Also, it’s Luka, not Luke for the record windjc.

[sefant]

Don't think you can draw any conclusions from previous matchups. THJ played all 3 games vs. Suns, tho this is a different team anyway. And he was "not good" per usual. Shooting 37 % FG from the field. +/- of -32 in the 3 games.

54 FG over 3 games = 18 shots per game

1st game 7/21 from the field. Not going to be there to bail out the Suns this time.


While Josh Green got a DNP in 1 game, and was +13 in 2 games. Frank got minutes and was decent. S. Brown got minutes. WCS got minutes.

[burekemde]

We need to play our strengths, and let them try adapt to our gameplan. On offense, and defense. Can we accomplish this? If we do, we win. If we need to adapt all the time, Phoenix will win and advance.

On offense, Luka-Powell pick and roll, will get a lot stronger weapon, now that we do not face Gobert. This is what we need to enforce more as the key point of offense, and let Phoenix try adapting to this. If this means getting help from perimeter, then Luka will find open players on the perimeter. We are starting shooting really well lately, so this could be what sends Phoenix out of the playoffs, that they simply will not be able to adapt to this gameplan.

On defense, it's tough. Phoenix can shoot, and also in mid range game, and we don't put this in focus so much. We are great at stopping the 3 pt shot, and the inside in paint. But mid range? The way CP and Booker are making these, unfortunately, we also have some adjustments to do, as Phoenix has on their defense with Luka-Powell combo.

This will be a tight one. Is Booker full strenght for the entire series?

Small things will decide the outcome. And we need to pay attention to the small things here, to the smallest of details, in such matchups as these.

[Winter]

Small things will decide the outcome.

My biggest issue is Chris Paul... and wearing him down.

[Smitty]

Green HAS to be playable in this series. DFS and Reggie playing 46 minutes can’t be sustainable with only one day rest between every game.

[Winter]

Green HAS to be playable in this series.

You would hope that Green could cover Booker for at least a few minutes.

But predicting Green's minutes is like betting on a lottery ticket.

[Smitty]

But predicting Green's minutes is like betting on a lottery ticket.

For sure. The one nugget that he has in his favor is he was +6 in 11 minutes in their last matchup Jan 20. If he can give you that, it will be huge!

[DanSchwartzgan]

From my viewpoint, the primary goals for this season were:

• Figure out KP's place on the team
  
• Find some additional perimeter shooters for Luka
  
• Improve defensively to at least league average.
  
• Get into second round of playoffs.
  

All of these have been accomplished. Now as the team goes to the next round, Kidd and his staff can see what cracks develop from the higher stresses and address those this offseason. Targeted improvement rather than cattle-call turnover.

BTW, I think CP3 is the head of the snake in PHX. If we can get him off his game, then I like our chances.

The first part of this is excellent.  We are playing on house money compared to start-of-the-season goals.  I do agree with windjc in that I wish you hadn't jumped to the off season.  I tend to agree with what you said, but in this context, if feels like losing this series is a foregone conclusion.  

My heart aligns with what windjc said.  We are a different team since the new year.  Our D did just dominate the number one offense in the league (regular season).  Brunson did play at a level of confidence we've not seen before.  And, you can throw out the regular season matchups.  Two were in November and the third was was in January, but with KP still on the roster.  With that said, I can't make the math work in our favor.  I think there is a chance Luka/JB/SD outplays Paul/Booker/Payne...maybe a good chance.  But Bridges/Crowder/Johnson > DFS/Reggie/Green and Ayton/McGee > Powell/Maxi.  Part of Kidd's system has been to take away the other team's best player (Phoenix has two of them) and let the role players determine the game.  Unfortunately, Phoenix doesn't have obvious holes and their role players can and will beat you.  

Both teams are super heavy PnR offenses.  Phoenix doesn't have any blow by players on offense and doesn't have Gobert waiting under the rim.  But, man they are efficient.  It will take a different strategy than simply taking away their three's.  They are more than capable of beating you with mid-range shots.  I think we have to "Conley-ize" the offense of either Paul or Booker and then hunt the other one and let Luka wear them down.  But, our role players have to step up.  Maxi only played one of the three Phoenix games this season and was 1/7 from three.  He has to draw Ayton away from the basket.  When Powell is in against Ayton, he won't be able to help as much as usual.  Ayton isn't Gobert as he has many more tricks up his sleeve.  Reggie was 1/9 from three in the three games...certainly room for improvement there.  But, DFS shot .437 from three against Phoenix and was still -26 over the three games.  So, clearly we need something more than just DFS playing well.  SD has to outplay Payne and Maxi has to outplay McGee because Crowder will outplay whatever combination of Green/Bertans gets a few minutes in the first several games.  

Since the beginning of the year, Phoenix is only 1.8 points in Net Rating better than Dallas.  There is some noise there for both teams.  Dallas is 115/109.2 and the Suns are 116.7/109.1 since 12/30.  That is not insurmountable.  The trick is Dallas has been DOMINANT at home and about even on the road and Phoenix is +8.4 at home and +7.0 on the road.  They have home court advantage and have been a really good road team.  Dallas absolutely has to get one win out of games 1, 2 and 5 as I doubt they hold serve at home.  

If we can get to a game seven, anything can happen.  The NBA could decide they want to help Paul finally get over the hump.  Or, karma could once again find a strange way to rob him of yet another opportunity.  Let's hope we get the opportunity to find out.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The first part of this is excellent.  We are playing on house money compared to start-of-the-season goals.  I do agree with windjc in that I wish you hadn't jumped to the off season.  I tend to agree with what you said, but in this context, if feels like losing this series is a foregone conclusion.  

My heart aligns with what windjc said.  We are a different team since the new year.  Our D did just dominate the number one offense in the league (regular season).  Brunson did play at a level of confidence we've not seen before.  And, you can throw out the regular season matchups.  Two were in November and the third was was in January, but with KP still on the roster.  With that said, I can't make the math work in our favor.  I think there is a chance Luka/JB/SD outplays Paul/Booker/Payne...maybe a good chance.  But Bridges/Crowder/Johnson > DFS/Reggie/Green and Ayton/McGee > Powell/Maxi.  Part of Kidd's system has been to take away the other team's best player (Phoenix has two of them) and let the role players determine the game.  Unfortunately, Phoenix doesn't have obvious holes and their role players can and will beat you.  

Both teams are super heavy PnR offenses.  Phoenix doesn't have any blow by players on offense and doesn't have Gobert waiting under the rim.  But, man they are efficient.  It will take a different strategy than simply taking away their three's.  They are more than capable of beating you with mid-range shots.  I think we have to "Conley-ize" the offense of either Paul or Booker and then hunt the other one and let Luka wear them down.  But, our role players have to step up.  Maxi only played one of the three Phoenix games this season and was 1/7 from three.  He has to draw Ayton away from the basket.  When Powell is in against Ayton, he won't be able to help as much as usual.  Ayton isn't Gobert as he has many more tricks up his sleeve.  Reggie was 1/9 from three in the three games...certainly room for improvement there.  But, DFS shot .437 from three against Phoenix and was still -26 over the three games.  So, clearly we need something more than just DFS playing well.  SD has to outplay Payne and Maxi has to outplay McGee because Crowder will outplay whatever combination of Green/Bertans gets a few minutes in the first several games.  

Since the beginning of the year, Phoenix is only 1.8 points in Net Rating better than Dallas.  There is some noise there for both teams.  Dallas is 115/109.2 and the Suns are 116.7/109.1 since 12/30.  That is not insurmountable.  The trick is Dallas has been DOMINANT at home and about even on the road and Phoenix is +8.4 at home and +7.0 on the road.  They have home court advantage and have been a really good road team.  Dallas absolutely has to get one win out of games 1, 2 and 5 as I doubt they hold serve at home.  

If we can get to a game seven, anything can happen.  The NBA could decide they want to help Paul finally get over the hump.  Or, karma could once again find a strange way to rob him of yet another opportunity.  Let's hope we get the opportunity to find out.

Excellent synopsis.  I think Phoenix's bigs are going to be the difference.  They have a very good tag-team in Ayton and McGee.

[cow]

I loath how fans on here are just waiting on the Mavs to lose and get it over with. Its really pathetic.

...

I am sick and tired of the attitude in here. You guys need to wake the F up.

Luke...

Some of you need to pull your head out.

[Jommybone]

. . . SD has to outplay Payne and Maxi has to outplay McGee because Crowder will outplay whatever combination of Green/Bertans gets a few minutes in the first several games.  

Dan S is a smart dude. But the logic of this small part of his post eludes me. 

I doubt the series comes down to any of the guys mentioned above. What I expect to happen is one of these scenarios:

1. Luka is the best player on the court. But not by enough. And Mavs don’t look competitive in the minutes he sits out. Suns in 5 or 6. 

2. Luka is the best player on the court. By miles and miles and miles. Mavs win in 6 or 7.

3. Luka is the best player on the court. Jalen continues to shock the world by outplaying everyone whose initials aren’t Luka Doncic. Mavs in 5.

[DanSchwartzgan]

My heart aligns with what windjc said.  We are a different team since the new year.  Our D did just dominate the number one offense in the league (regular season).   

Unfortunately, Phoenix doesn't have obvious holes and their role players can and will beat you.  

I tried to do my own analysis before listening to any podcasts or reading any in depth analysis.  A few additional comments.

Ayton isn't very good at guarding the roll man in the PnR.  So, we will probably see an uptick in Powell minutes this series.

Big test for Brunson as he'll probably draw Bridges.  They will be happy to let Luka average 35 if they can shut down everyone else.

I suspect we will lose a game by more than 20 at some point along the line.  Phoenix can bury a team in a hurry (much like Dallas does at times).  If it happens, it is just one loss (especially if it happens in Phoenix).  There aren't extra points for margin of victory.  Just first team to four.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Dan S is a smart dude. But the logic of this small part of his post eludes me. 

I doubt the series comes down to any of the guys mentioned above. What I expect to happen is one of these scenarios:

1. Luka is the best player on the court. But not by enough. And Mavs don’t look competitive in the minutes he sits out. Suns in 5 or 6. 

2. Luka is the best player on the court. By miles and miles and miles. Mavs win in 6 or 7.

3. Luka is the best player on the court. Jalen continues to shock the world by outplaying everyone whose initials aren’t Luka Doncic. Mavs in 5.

I've found myself "liking" a lot of JBone posts lately too.  So, back at you.  The logic is that margin doesn't care where it occurs and it isn't limited to the headliners.  If we win the series it will be because of lots of little things.  For instance, there are all sorts of scapegoats in Utah right now and the stars get most of the attention.  But, the biggest performance spread was Mike Conley.  He went from a +7.7 contributor in the regular season to a -9.2 buzz kill.

He's as steady as they come and I suspect very few had him listed as the key to the series.  But, he was and it was on both ends of the court.

[burekemde]

The first part of this is excellent.  We are playing on house money compared to start-of-the-season goals.  I do agree with windjc in that I wish you hadn't jumped to the off season.  I tend to agree with what you said, but in this context, if feels like losing this series is a foregone conclusion.  

My heart aligns with what windjc said.  We are a different team since the new year.  Our D did just dominate the number one offense in the league (regular season).  Brunson did play at a level of confidence we've not seen before.  And, you can throw out the regular season matchups.  Two were in November and the third was was in January, but with KP still on the roster.  With that said, I can't make the math work in our favor.  I think there is a chance Luka/JB/SD outplays Paul/Booker/Payne...maybe a good chance.  But Bridges/Crowder/Johnson > DFS/Reggie/Green and Ayton/McGee > Powell/Maxi.  Part of Kidd's system has been to take away the other team's best player (Phoenix has two of them) and let the role players determine the game.  Unfortunately, Phoenix doesn't have obvious holes and their role players can and will beat you.  

Both teams are super heavy PnR offenses.  Phoenix doesn't have any blow by players on offense and doesn't have Gobert waiting under the rim.  But, man they are efficient.  It will take a different strategy than simply taking away their three's.  They are more than capable of beating you with mid-range shots.  I think we have to "Conley-ize" the offense of either Paul or Booker and then hunt the other one and let Luka wear them down.  But, our role players have to step up.  Maxi only played one of the three Phoenix games this season and was 1/7 from three.  He has to draw Ayton away from the basket.  When Powell is in against Ayton, he won't be able to help as much as usual.  Ayton isn't Gobert as he has many more tricks up his sleeve.  Reggie was 1/9 from three in the three games...certainly room for improvement there.  But, DFS shot .437 from three against Phoenix and was still -26 over the three games.  So, clearly we need something more than just DFS playing well.  SD has to outplay Payne and Maxi has to outplay McGee because Crowder will outplay whatever combination of Green/Bertans gets a few minutes in the first several games.  

Since the beginning of the year, Phoenix is only 1.8 points in Net Rating better than Dallas.  There is some noise there for both teams.  Dallas is 115/109.2 and the Suns are 116.7/109.1 since 12/30.  That is not insurmountable.  The trick is Dallas has been DOMINANT at home and about even on the road and Phoenix is +8.4 at home and +7.0 on the road.  They have home court advantage and have been a really good road team.  Dallas absolutely has to get one win out of games 1, 2 and 5 as I doubt they hold serve at home.  

If we can get to a game seven, anything can happen.  The NBA could decide they want to help Paul finally get over the hump.  Or, karma could once again find a strange way to rob him of yet another opportunity.  Let's hope we get the opportunity to find out.

Some great points. Phoenix has more depth, yes, but we have by far the best player on the court, and likely the best on the planet. This changes a lot of things. This is the series Luka really explodes. He always does when we meet a team better than ours overall. I see Brunson stepping as well even more than before.

[burekemde]

Mavs absolutely need to be the more physical team here. They stepped up the physicality against the Utah. Need to increase that a step more for Phoenix. You cant win being the less physical team. I fully expect the Mavs to fight for every moment.

[ReunionMav]

I’m excited for this opportunity as well as the evaluation opportunity to see what this team can do against one of the very best teams. The above analysis helps the excitement and really helps. Thanks guys ?

[Jommybone]

I've found myself "liking" a lot of JBone posts lately too.  So, back at you.  The logic is that margin doesn't care where it occurs and it isn't limited to the headliners.  If we win the series it will be because of lots of little things.  For instance, there are all sorts of scapegoats in Utah right now and the stars get most of the attention.  But, the biggest performance spread was Mike Conley.  He went from a +7.7 contributor in the regular season to a -9.2 buzz kill.

He's as steady as they come and I suspect very few had him listed as the key to the series.  But, he was and it was on both ends of the court.

I like your liking! But I’m afraid I want to argue a little with your smart, stat-based take. (Which maybe means my take is dumb. Please hear me out anyway.)

Despite your stats (which surprised me), I just can’t lay the blame for the last series’ loss on Mike Conley. He couldn’t hit a 3, couldn’t contain JB, and had trouble staying on the court, all true. But the +/- numbers for his backup weren’t so hot either (Clarkson’s +18 in game 4 the only real exception.) And other than game 3, Conley’s on/off numbers were no worse than the team’s as a whole.

More importantly, as the teams made adjustments as the series wore on, Conley’s on/off numbers improved pretty dramatically. Game 5, Utah was a horrible -25, Clarkson -17, Conley just -7. Game 6 the Jazz lost by 2, Clarkson -5, Conley +2. Those were the deciding games. Conley’s +/- numbers don’t indicate that he was the reason for those losses. And he only got 22 minutes in Jalen’s breakout, 41-point game 2. So it’s hard for me to attribute that loss to him either. 

At most, in my opinion, Conley cost his team game 3. There he was -16 in an 8-point loss, while shooting 6/14 from the field, 2/7 from deep, and 7/8 from the free-throw line for 21 points. Certainly not a choke job. 

If I’m the Jazz, I blame the dramatic fall off in 3-point shooting attempts and accuracy for the loss. And I blame most of that on the ill-advised defensive strategy of wearing your best players out by asking them to work much, much harder on defense than they had all season long. Maybe I’m wrong about that. But it’s what it looked like to me.

[SwisherPrice]

Suns are just too good...they have been the worst matchup for us in the league because they have the matchup advantages to all of the Mavs weaknesses - multiple perimeter ISO scorers, talented wings who can play both ends of the floor, and active big men.

Bridges and Cam Johnson are going to feast in this series. The Jazz didn't have any forwards like that

[DanSchwartzgan]

I like your liking! But I’m afraid I want to argue a little with your smart, stat-based take. (Which maybe means my take is dumb. Please hear me out anyway.)

Despite your stats (which surprised me), I just can’t lay the blame for the last series’ loss on Mike Conley. He couldn’t hit a 3, couldn’t contain JB, and had trouble staying on the court, all true. But the +/- numbers for his backup weren’t so hot either (Clarkson’s +18 in game 4 the only real exception.) And other than game 3, Conley’s on/off numbers were no worse than the team’s as a whole.

More importantly, as the teams made adjustments as the series wore on, Conley’s on/off numbers improved pretty dramatically. Game 5, Utah was a horrible -25, Clarkson -17, Conley just -7. Game 6 the Jazz lost by 2, Clarkson -5, Conley +2. Those were the deciding games. Conley’s +/- numbers don’t indicate that he was the reason for those losses. And he only got 22 minutes in Jalen’s breakout, 41-point game 2. So it’s hard for me to attribute that loss to him either. 

At most, in my opinion, Conley cost his team game 3. There he was -16 in an 8-point loss, while shooting 6/14 from the field, 2/7 from deep, and 7/8 from the free-throw line for 21 points. Certainly not a choke job. 

If I’m the Jazz, I blame the dramatic fall off in 3-point shooting attempts and accuracy for the loss. And I blame most of that on the ill-advised defensive strategy of wearing your best players out by asking them to work much, much harder on defense than they had all season long. Maybe I’m wrong about that. But it’s what it looked like to me.

I don't know that this deserves a ton of time.  You made the point that the upcoming series will be largely about Luka.  The corollary for the last series would be that it was largely about Gobert (or Mitchell).  It is rarely that simple.  

I was using straight On-Court.  In a small sample On Minus Off is too dependent on who plays when you sit.  Shawn Marion was a fantastic player here, but his On Minus Off was horrible.  Why, because he spent a lot of his minutes as Dirk's backup at PF.  Dirk was an On Court monster and when he sat we weren't nearly as good and it killed Marion's numbers in that particular metric.  I think we put too much weight on single game On Minus Off around here.  It just isn't true that the guy who was most plus was great and the guy who was most minus was terrible.

I think it is reasonable to compare Conley's numbers to what the team did as one data point.  The team was bad.  He was similarly bad (as was pretty much everyone), therefore Conley didn't "cause" the team to be bad.  But, if everyone drops their normal On Court numbers (which happens when you lose a series), you have to look deeper.  I'd argue his variance from the norm was the greatest and therefore he contributed more.  He had a good game one and then was -32 in the games after that (-7, -16, -4, -7 and +2).  That's -6.4 instead of his usual +7.7.  Yes, the team lost by more than his number in most of those games.  But there is a ton of noise in three point variance.  Even someone sitting when a foul is called is misleading.  Should the two FT's go on the tab of the guy who just sat or the guy who checked in and wasn't on the floor when the foul occured?

But, we are still dealing with a really small sample size.  Next you have to ask why were the team's numbers so bad?  I'd say it was largely because Conley couldn't score to save his life.  After game one he was .288 from the field and .174 from three.  His O-Ratings across six games were 93, 42, 107, 95, 63 and 102.  His norm in the regular season was 120 and he hit 40% of his threes.  Man, I hope we do that to someone on Phoenix.  

I probably shouldn't have tried to pin Utah's failings on Conley.  That wasn't the point.  The point I wanted to make is Luka could certainly win or lose this series with good or bad play.  But, he could also average an outrageous number (say 45 a game) and Dallas still lose.  Phoenix has the personnel (Bridges) to take Brunson out of this series and the length elsewhere to hedge toward Luka and still get back to contest open shots by DFS and Reggie.  If we can't get efficient scoring from those guys, it won't matter if Luka averages 60 a game.  It won't be enough.