DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[dirkfansince1998]

or a solid role player at 18 who will still be there the next three years?

This is your assumption. There is 50 % chance this pick will not be a solid role player.

Welp, this is an agree-to-disagree deal. I strongly believe that Saddiq Bey, Terry, Smith, and Achiuwa will be rotation players (perhaps not starters) for some team this year. They aren't Malik Monks (I didn't like Malik before that draft and was glad the Mavs didn't take him). I would put actual money on them being top 8 in minutes for whatever team drafts them, barring injuries. I think that if one of those guys is there at 18, unless it's for Jrue or Schroder or OPJ, the Mavs done screwed up if they traded the pick.

We are basing our numbers on the actual outcome of previous drafts. As Kamm and I mentioned multiples times...25% chance he is a rotation player, 15% chance he is a starter, 5% chance he is a star.
There always will be outstanding players that outperform their draft position. You are making it easy for yourself because one of the guys you mentioned will most likely end up as a starter/above average role player. I would do the opposite. The chances that all of them actually make it in the NBA are close to zero.
Ultimately it comes down to scouting. Do you trust Donnie/the Mavs to pick the right guy? Based on their draft history I do not.

Also don´t get why you are willing to trade #18 for Porter or Schroder but not for Oladipo. Same situation. Both can walk away next offseason. Both will ask for a big paycheck if they stay.