DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[dirkfansince1998]

I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are...113d6b82e5