PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 DAL (4-2) vs #5 UTA (2-4) |

[ItsGoTime]

They were a team that came together to get out if the first round last year. By your measure of “hasn’t beaten anybody in a while”, the same can be said about the Mavs with regards to the playoffs. You know, the second season of the NBA where there’s more to play for that can unite even players who hate each other.

[omahen]

Man, I’m glad our team doesn’t have such a flippant disregard for the team that is the Utah Jazz.

Agree. Utah basically has a very similar score than Mavs, the season series has been 2-2 if I remember correctly, this more or less same Utah team has been over first round in the last season. I think reasonable expectation for healthy Mavs - Jazz series would be a very tight and tough fight. I would give Dallas a slight advantage. Win in 6 or 7 would be my prediction if Luka plays.

[ItsGoTime]

Agree. Utah basically has a very similar score than Mavs, the season series has been 2-2 if I remember correctly, this more or less same Utah team has been over first round in the last season. I think reasonable expectation for healthy Mavs - Jazz series would be a very tight and tough fight. I would give Dallas a slight advantage. Win in 6 or 7 would be my prediction if Luka plays.

Yep, I think HCA is pretty much the only thing that separates them. On paper, I think the Jazz has roughly a slight advantage with Luka as I demonstrated above with the player for player comparison.

[SleepingHero]

Yep, I think HCA is pretty much the only thing that separates them. On paper, I think the Jazz has roughly a slight advantage with Luka as I demonstrated above with the player for player comparison.

Problem is this is NOT the same UTA team that has made it out of the first round last year. Losing Joe Ingles has hurt them quite a bit, as their ball movement has stagnated. But even more so there are serious issues with the teams that even injuries can't explain.

Their worst month was January, where they had injuries to several key players culminating with Ingles, but we can't say "oh they were missing so-so, which is why their record is so bad", as they've basically been a .500 team since then.

Without Gobert they went 7-9. Without Mitchell they went 4-7. Without Ingles they went 19-12. 

In January they went: 4-12
In February they went: 8-1
In March they went: 8-9
In April they went 3-2

Overall 23-24. 

If we dive even further, their wins in February only came against 2 quality opponents really: The Mavs and the Suns. Here were there other wins:
DEN- With no Jokic
BRK- With no KD
NYK
GSW with no Draymond or Klay
ORL
HOU

Going even further, Utah has faced the other Western conference playoff teams 19 times since 1/1/22. They've posted a 8-11 record against them (these are including the Feb. wins). 

All this to say is that the Jazz aren't at their best. No one can really pinpoint a singular reason. They've been horrific in the clutch, their defense has waned, and their passes per game are ranked in the bottom 3. 

Mavs conversely are the polar opposite. They've been basically a top 3 team since January and have posted a 62 win pace in that frame. Obviously that Mavs team is reliant on Luka. No Luka=No chance.

[ItsGoTime]

Problem is this is NOT the same UTA team that has made it out of the first round last year. Losing Joe Ingles has hurt them quite a bit, as their ball movement has stagnated. But even more so there are serious issues with the teams that even injuries can't explain.

Their worst month was January, where they had injuries to several key players culminating with Ingles, but we can't say "oh they were missing so-so, which is why their record is so bad", as they've basically been a .500 team since then.

Without Gobert they went 7-9. Without Mitchell they went 4-7. Without Ingles they went 19-12. 

In January they went: 4-12
In February they went: 8-1
In March they went: 8-9
In April they went 3-2

Overall 23-24. 

If we dive even further, their wins in February only came against 2 quality opponents really: The Mavs and the Suns. Here were there other wins:
DEN- With no Jokic
BRK- With no KD
NYK
GSW with no Draymond or Klay
ORL
HOU

Going even further, Utah has faced the other Western conference playoff teams 19 times since 1/1/22. They've posted a 8-11 record against them (these are including the Feb. wins). 

All this to say is that the Jazz aren't at their best. No one can really pinpoint a singular reason. They've been horrific in the clutch, their defense has waned, and their passes per game are ranked in the bottom 3. 

Mavs conversely are the polar opposite. They've been basically a top 3 team since January and have posted a 62 win pace in that frame. Obviously that Mavs team is reliant on Luka. No Luka=No chance.

I’m not saying they will come together for the playoffs. I’m saying they can. If they do they are, to me, the better team with home court disadvantage. That’s if we have Luka. If we don’t? I find it hard to believe we win more than 1 game, if they take us seriously in that case.

Edit: Also, the playoffs is the perfect time for players to put aside their differences and come together to play hard.

[SleepingHero]

I’m not saying they will come together for the playoffs. I’m saying they can. If they do they are, to me, the better team with home court disadvantage. That’s if we have Luka. If we don’t? I find it hard to believe we win more than 1 game, if they take us seriously in that case.

Edit: Also, the playoffs is the perfect time for players to put aside their differences and come together to play hard.

How many times have we seen a team that's been on a downward trend come together and buck said trend in the playoffs? Last one I remember was HOU in 95 where they won the championship, but they didn't have locker room troubles, rather people got hurt at the wrong time (but were healthy by playoff start time). 

Maybe the Cavs in 2018 where Lebron went superhuman. 

I agree Jazz on paper are more talented. Heck I think there are over 15 teams that have more talented rosters than the Mavs alone, but there aren't many teams that play their role as well as the Mavs. Which is why they're successful. I'm not saying it's impossible for the Jazz to suddenly turn it on and everything is fine, but their chemistry issues seem to run deep. And if anything those cracks only get bigger in the playoffs, not smaller.

[Hogmelon]

Out of the last twelve games the Mavs have played in Salt Lake City, Dallas has won one, and Utah has won eleven.

Out of those twelve games, the first four [Mavs 0-4] were pre-Luka, and the last eight [Mavs 1-7] were in the Luka era.

Out of the eight Salt Lake City games in the Luka era, the Mavs were 1-2 in the three games Luka missed, and they were 0-5 in the five games Luka played.

Here are the box scores for the eight games in the Luka era:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...50UTA.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...50UTA.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...90UTA.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...70UTA.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...00UTA.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...50UTA.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...30UTA.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/box...70UTA.html


1.  Whether Luka is able to play by April 16 or not, the Mavs really need to win BOTH Game 1 and Game 2 at home.

2.  Boban is the key to winning in Salt Lake City.  In the Mavs' lone victory [August 10, 2020] out of their last dozen trips to Utah, Boban started the game, played 25 minutes, scored 20 points [63.6% FG%, 100% FT% (six out of six)], grabbed 9 rebounds, and had 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 1 foul, and ZERO turnovers.  I repeat ⁠— BOBAN IS THE KEY TO VICTORY!!!!   GO BOBAN!!!!! 

 

[SleepingHero]

Boban is the key to winning

I am 10000% taking this statement out of context. I agree. Finally I have a fellow resident of the newly established Boban island.

[KillerLeft]

Finally I have a fellow resident of the newly established Boban island.

NEWLY ESTABLISHED???!!!!

Boban Island used to have more inhabitants than Hawaii, and it used to drive me bananas.

[SleepingHero]

NEWLY ESTABLISHED???!!!!

Boban Island used to have more inhabitants than Hawaii, and it used to drive me bananas.

Listen I understand you missed the boat for Boban Island and haven't been able to keep up with the most recent news. We've recently codified our constitution making us really official. Mind you all it says so far is 1. Boban has a lifetime contract. 2. Boban is the most important player on this team. 

We're always happy to accept new residents as that is the Boban way. Next boat should be departing on 4/16 at 12:00pm CST. Hope to see you here soon!

https://tenor.com/view/boban-gif-18181467

[Slavius]

fuck it, i´ll stay positive. you just have to enjoy the expierience gain for the team, even if it´s just for 1 round. but what do we have to lose? dirk is the best example for having to deal with brutal losses, but still climbning that mountain till the end

[SleepingHero]

fuck it, i´ll stay positive. you just have to enjoy the expierience gain for the team, even if it´s just for 1 round. but what do we have to lose? dirk is the best example for having to deal with brutal losses, but still climbning that mountain till the end

I'm right there with you. I just want Luka to stay forever healthy. If that means foregoing this years playoffs then so be it!

[Slavius]

I'm right there with you. I just want Luka to stay forever healthy. If that means foregoing this years playoffs then so be it!

injuries are always horrible, nut now i´m more than happy that it isn´t something very serious. he´ll be fine, don´t rush him. our core is young

[Jommybone]

What does “best” even mean then? I can’t get my arms around how losing, especially to a team like Utah that hasn’t beaten anybody in awhile, could be anybody’s idea of best.

Ok, I didn’t mean to stir up a hornet’s nest with this. Was just trying to say 2 things:

1. Best case scenario involves Luka being ok and playing, not sitting. I get the pro-caution approach. But if the docs clear him, I’m not gonna say he shouldn’t play. 

2. Even without Luka, there’s no reason to believe the Utah of recent weeks (not last year’s Utah) is particularly fearsome. They roll into the playoffs losers of 7 of their last 11. The 4 wins over the league’s 3 worst teams (my opinion): Lakers, Thunder, Blazers and a depleted Memphis squad that was missing its top 2 scorers. This at the most important part of the season, with home-court advantage at stake. A truly colossal collapse. 

Sure, Utah might recover and play lights out this series. Especially if Luka is less than Luka-like. But that sounds like something significantly worse than best-case scenario to me.

[Hogmelon]

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/maveri...ny-favors/

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/Tjonesonthenba/statu...2414794755

[ItsGoTime]

How many times have we seen a team that's been on a downward trend come together and buck said trend in the playoffs? Last one I remember was HOU in 95 where they won the championship, but they didn't have locker room troubles, rather people got hurt at the wrong time (but were healthy by playoff start time). 

Maybe the Cavs in 2018 where Lebron went superhuman. 

I agree Jazz on paper are more talented. Heck I think there are over 15 teams that have more talented rosters than the Mavs alone, but there aren't many teams that play their role as well as the Mavs. Which is why they're successful. I'm not saying it's impossible for the Jazz to suddenly turn it on and everything is fine, but their chemistry issues seem to run deep. And if anything those cracks only get bigger in the playoffs, not smaller.

On a higher talent scale, Shaq and Kobe hated eachother. United from a singular hate for the Mavs, the 08 Warriors. Fans keep snowballing the cakewalk that’s about to happen (there was a poster here that said we could win against them even without Luka), that hate could ignite something inside high end players like the Jazz.


The biggest issue they have had is closing out when they’re up big too. I wonder how much tweeking they have to do to shore that up?

[IamDougieFresh]

I've got good news about Paul George's father. I called God (Dirk) and asked him to make sure we were good to go for game 1. Unfortunatly, due to the Satanic tattoos he wasn't able to help us. I didn't give up though. I called the devil (Wade) right after and got us a good deal. Luka will be healthy for the playoffs and in return, we send Dwight Powell to hell (Sacramento).

Mavs in 4.

[OBX Maverick]

Like everyone else, I'm disappointed about Luka's calf injury. However, I had a dream last night where Calvin Booth came to me and said "everything's gonna be alright...."  So i'm sticking with the Mavs in 6......

Thank goodness for the Dinwiddie trade. It gives us a legitimate fighting chance even if Luka can't go. Need Maxie to be healthy and active, too. Like others have said, Utah isn't exactly firing on all cylinders at this point. We don't have to be perfect to beat them.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I've got good news about Paul George's father. I called God (Dirk) and asked him to make sure we were good to go for game 1. Unfortunatly, due to the Satanic tattoos he wasn't able to help us. I didn't give up though. I called the devil (Wade) right after and got us a good deal. Luka will be healthy for the playoffs and in return, we send Dwight Powell to hell (Sacramento).

Mavs in 4.

That's a pretty ambitious prediction. Unlikely,  but we'll see.