What do we want? (playoff matchups)

[fifteenth]

I know there is some of this talk sprinkled through the typical threads, but I wanted to try to spark a dedicated conversation about the topic. 

Do we want the 3rd seed?

I know it doesn't matter what we want. Our desire certainly won't impact reality. But it's an interesting conversation, I think. 

Here are some line items that I'm not sure how to parse. 

1. Get the 3 seed and face Denver who is lacking star power outside of their STAR and MAY be more beatable than Utah
2. Stay at the 4 seed and face in turmoil Utah who MAY be more beatable than Denver
3. Get the 3 seed and we avoid the Suns until the WCF

I tend to think Utah is the favored match up because of their current turmoil and because Luka would abuse their little guards. But, I don't necessarily trust their turmoil. They could flip the switch. So, clearly I cannot drink from the cup which is in front of you. 

I tend to want the 3 seed to avoid the Suns, but feel like that might be getting ahead of ourselves because we still need to win our first first round series in forever. So, clearly I cannot drink from the cup which is in front of me.  

Who will solve this riddle?

[ItsGoTime]

Dizzying intellect!

[fifteenth]

Wait til I get going!

[ItsGoTime]

I think the most important thing is to go into the playoffs with a 4 game win streak. The Was game was the game that would have put us in the drivers seat as far as picking our first round matchup. In all honesty, I think either of Den or Uta has their strengths and weaknesses it’s better to just win out and take on whoever wants us! It’s good that we’ll probably have HCA no matter who we play.

[Hypermav]

3rd seed to avoid the Suns in the 2nd round.  

Utah and Denver are about the same in my view, although I think Utah has a higher ceiling if they are playing well.

I prefer the Mavs finish the season as high as possible just from a competitive pov.

[KillerLeft]

I'll add a note:

PHX is probably the worst matchup for anyone in the West, but tbqh, I'm almost as scared of the Clippers as I am of them. 

Honestly, I don't think it matters, at this point. Getting out of the first round makes this a successful season. Anything past that is house money.

[Chicagojk]

I have no idea who I want in the first or even second round if we advanced.   

Utah and Denver both bring challenges and either will be tough series.  Denver is obviously compromised with health, but still playing a full series against one of the few players in the universe who may be better than our guys is challenging.   I just picture 40 point games by Jokic with him getting wide open looks for the rest of his guys.  On the other hand, Utah has been struggling.  But they know this is an 'all in' playoff series for both players and coach.   So expect anything.   In addition, winning in Utah has been a tough task for the Mavs.   

Avoiding PHX in round two would be preferred, but it is out of our hands now.  Lets get homecourt and continue our strong play heading into the playoffs.

[michaeltex]

3rd seed to avoid the Suns in the 2nd round.  

Utah and Denver are about the same in my view, although I think Utah has a higher ceiling if they are playing well.

I prefer the Mavs finish the season as high as possible just from a competitive pov.

Of course this positioning will (probably) get you MEM if DAL wins the first round series. They have been on an absolute tear since 1/1/2002, even without Ja Morant, who was in MVP discussions before getting hurt.

Not sure this is any more desirable than PHX in the 2nd round, but it will make some interesting bets between my brother (who is a MEM fan) and myself.

[cow]

To win.

[burekemde]

Home court advantage is the key to go after. The matchup doesnt matter. If we want to win the championship, and thats the goal, and deserve the title, we should beat any team along the way, no matter the sequence. The opponents will need to adjust to us - not us adjusting to them. So just bring on anyone and let's play the best basketball we can do, and increase the intensity all we can do.

You could also look at this from another angle. If some opponent can beat us. Then we dont deserve to be in playoffs any longer and should go out of the tournament. So - we need to be able to beat every team. Thus, the sequence doesn't matter.

[fifteenth]

Home court advantage is the key to go after.

Well. We have that for round 1 already. We most likely don't have that for round 2.

Here's hoping we can take care of business in round 1, and pull an upset in round 1. 

Regarding round 2, I'm thinking Memphis might be hindered buy 1) youth and 2) their system, which might not be playoff sustainable

[SleepingHero]

Here are all the scenarios for the 3-6 matchups based off of 538's numbers.

[Mapka]

You could also look at this from another angle. If some opponent can beat us. Then we dont deserve to be in playoffs any longer and should go out of the tournament. So - we need to be able to beat every team. Thus, the sequence doesn't matter.

So we don't deserve to win it all, if we win. Because the Knicks beat us every time we play them lol.

The NBA is kinda rock-paper-scissors sometimes and the playoffs are depending on injuries.

You need at least other to not be lucky to win it all.

[Jommybone]

Chris and I want Mempis.

[burekemde]

So we don't deserve to win it all, if we win. Because the Knicks beat us every time we play them lol.

The NBA is kinda rock-paper-scissors sometimes and the playoffs are depending on injuries.

You need at least other to not be lucky to win it all.

I believe that every previous champion deserved to win it. It can never be otherwise. Because only the best team remains, that has won over all others, the others that won over the others. The team that doesn't lose a single time in playoff, wins it all. It means its the best team that remains.

So I really dont think the team/players itself (fans ok) should consider matchups at all. The best team wins at the end. It doesnt matter if you get memphis or phoeneix or denver etc. If you are the champion, you will win no matter the actual sequence.

---

Well. We have that for round 1 already. We most likely don't have that for round 2.

Why is it not likely? I think this is likely given how GS plays at the moment, they might lose their next game.

[Kammrath]

Here are all the scenarios for the 3-6 matchups based off of 538's numbers.

Wow, 73% chance Mavs get 3rd and 69% chance they play DEN. 

Wouldn't have guessed that.

[Branduil]

Wow, 73% chance Mavs get 3rd and 69% chance they play DEN. 

Wouldn't have guessed that.

It's worth pointing out these are just mathematical odds which don't take into account that actual situations. In this case, GS plays 2 games so the odds of them winning both is always going to be lower than the Mavs winning 1. But this doesn't account for players sitting (or Luka being suspended).

[Kammrath]

It's worth pointing out these are just mathematical odds which don't take into account that actual situations. In this case, GS plays 2 games so the odds of them winning both is always going to be lower than the Mavs winning 1. But this doesn't account for players sitting (or Luka being suspended).

That may be true. But it may take into account Luka's suspension (as their game prediction odds do take into account availability of a player). 

Regardless of what the formula is including, I am surprised at the odds this computer pumps out.

[ThisIStheYear]

Three is a better finish than four. Of course you want the three seed.  Who wants to finish 4th when they could finish 3rd?

[Branduil]

It seems SA is sitting their entire starting lineup so we can probably pencil in the #4 Dallas / #4 Utah matchup now.