THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[DanSchwartzgan]

Why is no one willing to give a number figure on Green's next contract?  Just a bunch of talking/dancing.

Not really a willingness issue.  Just ran out of time this morning.  It is a fairly complex answer.  Do they get it done next summer as an extension?  Do they wait until he’s RFA and let the restricted market set the number?  I think that is two different numbers for his “next contract”.  Let’s assume they are smart enough to do the extension…here are the off-guard comps from the last two summers.  Age and contract status at the time of the deal factor greatly here.  Extensions tend to come at a discount and UFA’s like THJ tend to do better than RFA’s all things being equal.  The salary below is the contact average:

2022

25.0mm. Simons
16.5mm. Dort
14.5mm. Tyus Jones
9.70mm. Monk

2021

18.7mm. THJ
18.2mm. Fournier
18.0mm. N. Powell
17.2mm. Trent Jr.
12.6mm. J. Hart
11.8mm. Graham
9.25mm. Caruso

FWIW, the average is 15.6.  We can quibble about where Green fits on that list or whether I skewed the comps too high (remove Simons and the average is 14.6).  The answer I would have given prior to looking up comps would have been $14mm this summer (average) and a risk of $20mm as the average if done in the summer of 2024 in free agency.  The MLE will be $11mm next summer.  North of that seems appropriate to me.

Some amount of projection is required here.  I have a high opinion of what I see happening by the end of this season.  We have no idea whether he continues to get minutes and continues to shoot efficiently or be as impactful.  When I put him on the list above, I see him North of Josh Hart and a little north of Tyus Jones (though I think Jones may be the best comp right this minute).  If you were a GM of another team and the salaries were equal, would you take Green over Dort?  Trent Jr.?  Norman Powell?  I think $15mm this summer is probably where I see it though I’d ask for a discount since I’m taking some risk of inking this a year early.  I do think he has a chance to get in the 20’s a season and a half from now…especially if a lot of teams have cap space in 2024.