THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[mvossman]

From a business standpoint, they'd be smart to keep him coming off the bench this season and extend him this summer as a super sub.  As a starter, he'll be pretty expensive this summer.  The number could get crazy a year from now.  If he keeps getting 30+ minutes a game, he'll probably be about 15/4/3 this season with good percentages and good on/off based on his career.  There is upside to some of those numbers.  This season, the five times he's gotten 26 minutes or more he's been 15/3.3/2.6  

For reference, during Michael Finley's age-22 season, he averaged 39 minutes and was 15/4.6/3.5.    On a per 36 basis, Finley at 22 and Green at 22 look very similar (except Green is a better shooter and a MUCH better contributor to his teams on-court success).  Joe Johnson's per 36 his Age-22 season was about a point and an assist better than Finley or Green, but we're just now seeing Josh be let out of the corner.  Green is past the Iggy comparisons at the same age and may stay there because of Green's superior 3 point shot.

Green doesn't have to do much more to be at the level of these guys at the same age.  He just needs the minutes and to keep doing what he's always done when he gets PT.  He's always been much more productive the more time he's gotten...always.  It is really about the time more than needing to 'add' something to his game right now.

I think one thing to point out is Green's insane efficiency.  He is 86% at the rim and 46% from 3 (he does not take mid range shots at all this season).  That efficiency is masking how few shots he takes.  Last night was a good example.  He played over 30 minutes with a 100% TS and only scored 16 points.  His per 36 scoring is less than 13 with that crazy efficiency.  He likely will not be playing that many minutes a game and will likely not hold on to 74% TS for the rest of the season.  His points per game for this season is probably going to be closer to 10-12.

I agree on the starting thing.  You can also make the argument that bringing him off the bench is part of bringing him slowly along.  As long as he is getting 30+ minutes, it does not really matter that much who is starting.