THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[SleepingHero]

I’m a little strange, but I tend to question things when a point of view starts to become a commonly held narrative.  Questions like ‘what is the right number of shots for Josh or Hardy’?  ‘Who should we compare them to among teammates who do take enough shots’?  ‘Do the numbers support the eye-test’?

So, who should we compare Josh’s attempts to?  I’d probably argue Bullock, DFS and Maxi are one possible grouping if your view of Josh is 3&D guy.  Dinwiddie, Brunson and THJ might be another grouping if you think Josh is a ball handling scorer.  Last year Josh got up 8.75 attempts per 36.  That compares to Bullock (9.5), DFS (9.4) and Maxi (8.8)…average is 9.25.  So, Josh does shoot less than this group by half a shot per 36.  It is less, but not egregiously so.  I can’t recall anyone saying those three are timid, but at relatively the same pace of attempts, Josh is. 

In game one (which you graded as timid, but looking to get involved) his five attempts end up as 8 attempts per 36.  In game two, his 4 attempts in fewer minutes actually grades out at 9.75 attempts per 36.  I think the eye test is much more dependent on whether they go in than we realize.

I'm looking less at the number of attempts he's taking but rather what did in the lead up to those shots. I want Josh to be more proactive and less reactive when it comes to scoring. How many aggressive drives has he had so far vs. standing in the corner for a set shot? Is he creating off the dribble?

So far he's at his most comfortable standing in the far corner waiting for a kickout where he can move the ball to the next man. Nothing wrong here and plenty of players survived hitting those type of shots, but Josh is still hesitant even taking them. 

I’ve been making a point to talk about games where Josh gets 20 minutes or more.  In those games last year, his attempts moved from his average of 8.75 to 9.4…basically the same number of attempts as Dorian takes (and no one calls Dorian timid).  Of course, Dorian is a miraculous undrafted player developmental story.  Josh is a dog of a first round pick who should have been any of a half dozen other players instead.  I get that there are open shots that Josh seems to pass up every game (I actually think Maxi is worse at this).  But, I think there is at least a bit of confirmation bias in the timid narrative.

BTW-II, Hardy’s attempts per 36 in game one ended up at 24 (Luka takes 22 attempts per 36).  In game two it ‘moderated’ to 18.4 (a pace that is 20% greater than what Hardaway shoots).  As you say, there is a happy medium for both.  Personally, I feel Hardy as further away from his (based on role) than Green is from his.

Whether or not there is confirmation bias regarding the timid narrative is inconsequential to me because I don't think anyone here will deny that Green hesitates more often than not. And I think that is biggest hurdle for Josh being a valued rotation player. He's shown he can do it in bursts, but he needs a mindset change on the court or else he won't last. 


With Hardy I totally agree. He is a ways away from reigning in those Melo tendencies. I definitely think Green is closer than Hardy in fixing his issues.