THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[DanSchwartzgan]

I felt like Josh regressed a bit from game 1.

Game 1 he was timid, but still looking to get involved. He took 2 or 3 uncharacteristic pull up jumpers (2 from 3pt iirc). He was aggressive more than he had ever been.  Game 2 was more like the Josh of old. Dude is afraid of making mistakes out there, and I don't think it's because of the coaching staff making him feel that way. I just think he's so risk averse that unless there is a play that is 90%+ chance of working he wont make it. Which is odd because Josh really does have fantastic instincts. 

Compare that with Hardy who hasn't seen a shot he doesn't love and just plays without thinking. There is a middle ground for both of them, although I think if I had to choose a player to play with, give me a guy who wants to make play vs. a guy who's afraid to call his own number.

I’m a little strange, but I tend to question things when a point of view starts to become a commonly held narrative.  Questions like ‘what is the right number of shots for Josh or Hardy’?  ‘Who should we compare them to among teammates who do take enough shots’?  ‘Do the numbers support the eye-test’?

So, who should we compare Josh’s attempts to?  I’d probably argue Bullock, DFS and Maxi are one possible grouping if your view of Josh is 3&D guy.  Dinwiddie, Brunson and THJ might be another grouping if you think Josh is a ball handling scorer.  Last year Josh got up 8.75 attempts per 36.  That compares to Bullock (9.5), DFS (9.4) and Maxi (8.8)…average is 9.25.  So, Josh does shoot less than this group by half a shot per 36.  It is less, but not egregiously so.  I can’t recall anyone saying those three are timid, but at relatively the same pace of attempts, Josh is. 

In game one (which you graded as timid, but looking to get involved) his five attempts end up as 8 attempts per 36.  In game two, his 4 attempts in fewer minutes actually grades out at 9.75 attempts per 36.  I think the eye test is much more dependent on whether they go in than we realize.

BTW, the Hardaway (15.3), Brunson (14.4) and Dinwiddie (13.5) grouping averages 14.4 shot attempts per 36.  If that is the proper group to compare Green to, then yes, he’s way underperforming in the attempts department.  I just think Bullock is a much closer comp to what Josh is asked to do (reasonable people can disagree…the main thing is finding a standard).  Josh was only about a shot every other game light last year.  Time will tell on this year.  

I’ve been making a point to talk about games where Josh gets 20 minutes or more.  In those games last year, his attempts moved from his average of 8.75 to 9.4…basically the same number of attempts as Dorian takes (and no one calls Dorian timid).  Of course, Dorian is a miraculous undrafted player developmental story.  Josh is a dog of a first round pick who should have been any of a half dozen other players instead.  I get that there are open shots that Josh seems to pass up every game (I actually think Maxi is worse at this).  But, I think there is at least a bit of confirmation bias in the timid narrative.

BTW-II, Hardy’s attempts per 36 in game one ended up at 24 (Luka takes 22 attempts per 36).  In game two it ‘moderated’ to 18.4 (a pace that is 20% greater than what Hardaway shoots).  As you say, there is a happy medium for both.  Personally, I feel Hardy as further away from his (based on role) than Green is from his.