11-15-2022, 12:05 AM
(11-14-2022, 09:48 PM)F Gump Wrote: Don't kid yourself - that negativity is factually wrong. For a parallel in MANY ways, see Kidd, Jason. Kidd was traded to Dallas at age 34, and his 3P% which had been low 30s most of his career moved to over 40% and stayed there that season and 2 more (46, 41, 43).
I don't argue with your idea that SD's improvement MIGHT only be temporary, based on sss -- but because of the very real changes in circumstance on multiple levels, your view may have failed to capture what's become real. We just have to see what happens.
And your idea that a player CAN'T figure it out, and is somehow doomed to the limits of what he has done in the past, is simply not right. There's nothing in SD's game that says he can't learn or improve a skill, and shooting is certainly a developed skill rather than an intuited (and limited) piece of athleticism.
Nobody said he can't improve. The point is the odds that he has improved his 3 by over 10% is exceeding unlikely. Even if it has happened before (I will get to that) it does not make it likely. It's wildly more likely that we are experiencing the same noise that has Luka, Bullock and Maxi shooting under 30%.
As for Kidd, he was shooting roughly 35 to 36% for a couple years before he went to Dallas. That 46 your quoting was a 29 game sample on less than 3 attempts a game. Small sample. He did raise his percentage to low 40s for the next two seasons before he dropped back down to mid 30s. That's maybe a 6% jump, huge for a player at his age, but nowhere near the 13% jump Din would have to be taking to suddenly become a 46% shooter.
I'm surprised we are having this argument. There is always a bunch of noise in small sample three point shooting and it always eventually regresses (even if the new value shifts some due to changes in skill or shot profile).