11-14-2022, 06:36 PM
(11-14-2022, 05:48 PM)F Gump Wrote: Any certainty that this MUST just be small sample size skewing things, and a future slump is inevitable to revert him to the mean, is very misguided. No way to know that until it's over.
It has to be recognized that players CAN improve their shooting. Not just young players. It's sometimes just a function of the willingness to work. or discovering some issue that needs correcting (and doing the work to make it happen). It remains to be seen if that's what is happening, but it is VERY possible.
Sure there is the possibility for improvement. But lets not kid ourselves. This is a career 33% shooter that shot 34% last season and 31% the year before that (skipping his 3 game season). What is the history of roughly 30 year old NBA players going from a below average 3 point shooter to one of the best in the league? His improved shot selection might give him a couple of percent, and he might have improved in skill a couple of percent (although there is virtually no history of improvement once he started playing regularly) and maybe some noise/luck will get him another couple of percent, but the odds of him shooting 46% for the rest of the season at this volume are astronomically low.