Luxury Tax Hell

[DanSchwartzgan]

I will be surprised if all they do this summer is "stand pat" and trade off THJ for some tax relief. If they surprise in the playoffs, maybe that is the course they go, but it seems to me that they know they are desperately missing that 2nd guy and will be willing to overhaul the roster to get there.

I personally think JB is still the path to that 2nd guy. I don't see him as the 2nd guy and so I think you need to be willing to move off of him to get that guy. 

Any thoughts on all that?

I'm afraid the time of greatest leverage with JB has passed.  Detroit is probably the biggest threat among cap room teams.  They MIGHT do us a favor and give us a TPE (which we might not spend) in exchange for a second.  I think Lowry shows the example of what is likely if Brunson insists on going to NY.  Lowry brought back expiring Dragic (probably expiring Rose or Walker in this case) and Achiuwa (probably Grimes, Quickley, Reddish or McBride, but it won't be S&T Robinson now).  Miami didn't give up a pick.   

A more optimistic view was the Conley deal of Grayson Allen, Crowder, Darius Bazley, the corpse of Kyle Korver and a strangely protected first.  Crowder was obviously s still useful role player, Bazley had just been drafted 23rd overall and Grayson was coming off of an unimpressive rookie year after being drafted 21st the year before.  That package in NY is basically Rose or Walker, our 23 pick back and two youngsters (McBride and Grimes I like actually).  That kind of deal now lets you go big game hunting armed with 23, 25 and 27.

Yeah, the hope is certainly that someone wants to give up something useful for THJ.  He'd be a fairly highly ranked FA if he were free this summer.  My hope would be he's a hair better than neutral value and if you pair him with a pick, it isn't paying the pick to get rid of him, it is combining player and pick to upgrade another position.  People seem to agree that starting C is the biggest need here.  The pick and either Maxi or Powell could also be the outgoing in a deal that replaces one of them.  Something has to give as both are 32/31 year old free agents in 23.  I'm not sure you want to pay for the declining years on both of those guys.  If you really want to dream, it is THJ + Maxi (or Powell) and 3 picks for the star.  So, in a sense, you'd be right that Brunson might be the path that gets us there.