TRADE: Dinwiddie + Bertans to DAL | KP + 2nd to WAS

[Mavs2021]

I don't view using a 52nd pick on some marketing ploy as a waste. How many players have had a career longer than 3 years that were picked between 50-60 in the last 20 years? In fact I'll make the cutoffs 100 games and/or 3 years in the league, which is as generous as I can make it. 

Here's the list of guys that meet that requirement that were picked between 50-60 from 1999-2019:
1999: Rodney Buford, Manu Ginobli 
2000: Kaniel Dickens
2001: Ruben Boumtjue-Bountjie, Alton Ford, Jarron Collins
2002: Darius Songaila, Rasual Butler, Tamar Slay, Luis Scola (who didn't come play till 5 years after getting picked)
2003: Kyle Korver
2004: -----
2005: Ryan Gomes, Orien Greene, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat (who didn't come play till 2 years after getting picked)
2006: Ryan Hollins
2007: Ramon Sessions
2008: Darnell Jackson
2009: AJ Price, Nando De Colo, Patty Mills, Lester Hudson 
2010: Jeremy Evans, Hamady N'Daive
2011: Lavoy Allen, Deandre Liggins, Etwaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas
2012: Robert Sacre
2013: James Ennis III, Lorenzo Brown, Joffrey Lauvergne 
2014: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Jordan McRae
2015: -------
2016: Abdel Nader, Tyrone Wallace
2017: Monte Morris, Kadeem Allen
2018: Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kostas Antentokounmpo
2019: Jalen McDaniels, Tremont Waters, Kyle Guy, Miye Oni

I know this is a wall of text, but I actually sat down for 30 minutes compiling all of this. But the point being, out of 200 possible players, only 45 ever met this generous cutoff. Of those 45, only 7 are guys I'd deem as to ever have contributed anything meaningful for their teams. Of those 7, 3 were ever all-stars. And of those 3, only 1 was really a game changer.  If we want an actual rotation player, then its a 3.5% chance of ever getting one (in reality it's much lower because of the generous cut-off). 

And in 2015, where Satnam was picked, Cuban must've surveyed the field and accurately predicted that there aren't really any guys worth a roster spot. 

This was a deep dive that took way too much time. But my overall point in this is that late 2nd rounders are the biggest gambles there are. And no one should really care too much over them (not saying you were). It's why I've cooled a lot on the KP trade where the Mavs sent a second because its protected 31-45 and if it isn't conveyed then the Mavs keep it.

It does not matter whether the probability to find a guy is low. If you don´t play the probability is zero. Picking Satnam is not playing.

Also it´s a little disingenuous to not mention the undrafted players of the 2015 class, which included Christian Wood, Juan Toscano-Anderson and TJ McConnell. Furthermore it would certainly have been possible with the investment of maybe one future 2nd round pick + cash to move up to pick #40 Josh Richardson, #41 Pat Connaughton, #46 Norman Powell.

But we have been over this a million times. You make bad small decisions, you make bad big decisions. The size of the pot, doesn´t matter.