MAVS 105, TIMBERWOLVES 111

[F Gump]

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This roster needs talent infusion. I believe Mavs should go all in to do it.

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What confuses me is why Mavs didn't make this moves (or at least one of them) in the summer, since it is so obvious.

 
I'm responding not to the author, but the idea, because I keep seeing this sentiment.

I don't think "want to" is stopping the Mavs from upgrading.

The obstacle that the Mavs are always facing, is that you can't "upgrade" just because you feel like it. What competing team wants your junk for their talent? The trade partner will want to "win" the trade too. The biggest desire to trade is meaningless, if you don't have the right players to offer, on the right contracts, and at a position the other team might want. Plus, the very reason you want to get rid of certain players is also an obstacle to getting anyone to take them.

The way to get better is to evaluate players (vs cost) better than anyone else, in free agency and the draft. The Mavs have long been bad at both, and Nico certainly wasn't the guy to do that in the summer. How is he ready now, to win a trade that the other team will only do if they can get what their experts believe to be the better end of the deal?

[cow]

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This roster needs talent infusion. I believe Mavs should go all in to do it.

---------

What confuses me is why Mavs didn't make this moves (or at least one of them) in the summer, since it is so obvious.

 
I'm responding not to the author, but the idea, because I keep seeing this sentiment.

I don't think "want to" is stopping the Mavs from upgrading.

The obstacle that the Mavs are always facing, is that you can't "upgrade" just because you feel like it. What competing team wants your junk for their talent? The trade partner will want to "win" the trade too. The biggest desire to trade is meaningless, if you don't have the right players to offer, on the right contracts, and at a position the other team might want. Plus, the very reason you want to get rid of certain players is also an obstacle to getting anyone to take them.

The way to get better is to evaluate players (vs cost) better than anyone else, in free agency and the draft. The Mavs have long been bad at both, and Nico certainly wasn't the guy to do that in the summer. How is he ready now, to win a trade that the other team will only do if they can get what their experts believe to be the better end of the deal?

Agreed on the want to.  Agreed on the evaluation of talent versus dollars.  I'm not sure if that's going to get better.

Seems like the MBT to of old had pretty negative relationships with a lot of other front offices throughout the league.  And in free agency, they had problems even getting their foot in the door.  I don't expect Nico to fix that over night but I do believe he's the correct person to start turning those weaknesses around.  

Hindsight and all but a better front office never would have traded for KP, especially with the shape of the roster.  KP was really expensive factoring in what we gave up and that we had to pay him sight unseen after that major injury which looks like an overpay.  The "Mavs special" is compounding that problem with the THJ overpay this past summer.  I guess it is par for the course for Cuban's impatience.  

They should have just let Luka lead bad teams for a few years to try and hit on a few picks (problematic in its' own right) and then gone big game hunting when you had a full compliment of draft picks and young talent.  As it stands now, it looks like we'll need to be bad in year 4-7 of the Luka Doncic era rather than taking it on the chin in his first few years.  And we will still have the same questions around the Mavs drafting abilities.  I don't really know if Nico can improve that facet either.

[dynamicalVoid]

Agreed on the want to.  Agreed on the evaluation of talent versus dollars.  I'm not sure if that's going to get better.

Seems like the MBT to of old had pretty negative relationships with a lot of other front offices throughout the league.  And in free agency, they had problems even getting their foot in the door.  I don't expect Nico to fix that over night but I do believe he's the correct person to start turning those weaknesses around.  

Hindsight and all but a better front office never would have traded for KP, especially with the shape of the roster.  KP was really expensive factoring in what we gave up and that we had to pay him sight unseen after that major injury which looks like an overpay.  The "Mavs special" is compounding that problem with the THJ overpay this past summer.  I guess it is par for the course for Cuban's impatience.  

They should have just let Luka lead bad teams for a few years to try and hit on a few picks (problematic in its' own right) and then gone big game hunting when you had a full compliment of draft picks and young talent.  As it stands now, it looks like we'll need to be bad in year 4-7 of the Luka Doncic era rather than taking it on the chin in his first few years.  And we will still have the same questions around the Mavs drafting abilities.  I don't really know if Nico can improve that facet either.

This is my take as well.

Regardless of Mavs drafting resume.

Regardless of hit/miss rate for NBA teams at top/middle/back of draft...first or second round.

Regardless of if this Org is built to develop talent or not.

Regardless of the "Luka effect" not allowing you to tank properly.

Regardless of rookie learning curve.

[Kammrath]

They should have just let Luka lead bad teams for a few years to try and hit on a few picks

I have said it before and I will say it again:

The failure to tank Luka's rookie year was a current franchise killer. The wins in 2019 at OKC, at MEM in OT, and then against PHX are something I may never forgive RC for. They were completely inexcusable and completely changed the trajectory of this franchise for the worse.

[omahen]

The obstacle that the Mavs are always facing, is that you can't "upgrade" just because you feel like it. What competing team wants your junk for their talent? The trade partner will want to "win" the trade too. The biggest desire to trade is meaningless, if you don't have the right players to offer, on the right contracts, and at a position the other team might want. Plus, the very reason you want to get rid of certain players is also an obstacle to getting anyone to take them.

The way to get better is to evaluate players (vs cost) better than anyone else, in free agency and the draft. The Mavs have long been bad at both, and Nico certainly wasn't the guy to do that in the summer. How is he ready now, to win a trade that the other team will only do if they can get what their experts believe to be the better end of the deal?

Honestly, I am not too interested in the microworld of how, as I am not an insider with knowledge of what Mavs are good at and what not. What I know is, that it can be done, as shown by other organizations. So if it is not done, my grade of the result is low - I have been very critical of 2019 and 2021 offseasons. 

Rebuilding teams are not looking for quality players on good deals. Likes of THJ, Kleber, DFS and Powell have little value to them (unless they flip them for assets). They are looking for assets. So 2025 pick, 2027 pick or get creative and get a 2023 pick to free all picks to be traded. Swap 2023 pick for 2022 or whatever. These are good enough assets for a good (but not all star level) player. Price of good but not all star level players is up to 2 FRP (depending on protections). Denver traded horrible Harris contract for Gordon. Vucevic (all star player) cost was two good picks, young player and salary filler. I think Mavs can provide assets in this range.

I know it is easy to write down options, but we have seen it done by other teams so I expect Mavs to pull it of. It is their job. It is what differentiates good offices from bad ones. The ones that deliver and the ones that talk. I expect Mavs to be good at what they do and it is on them to find a way to do it. I can't really judge Harrison on what he can or can't do, I can only judge the results. So far, we haven't seen much and the little we did see wasn't great. 

Good teams find the way to do it. Look at Milwaukee, Miami, Chicago as latest examples. I am not really interested in excuses and explanations why they didn't do it or why they will not do it. I want them to do it  

I am convinced that the league has become very player driven, meaning players have big influence on where they want to play, even if they still have the contract. In this light the advertised good relationships and connections with players from Kidd and Harrison should bring an added value.

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As it stands now, it looks like we'll need to be bad in year 4-7 of the Luka Doncic era

Why? Teams added talent with less assets Mavs have at this moment. Being bad in following years is not an option, if they want to keep Luka. But Mavs need to actually start building.

[cow]

Why? Teams added talent with less assets Mavs have at this moment. Being bad in following years is not an option, if they want to keep Luka. But Mavs need to actually start building.

-It's year four already.
-This is a bad team.
-MBT are bad at adding talent.

[omahen]

-It's year four already.
-This is a bad team.
-MBT are bad at adding talent.

First two mean they have to improve the team. If they are bad at adding talent, rebuild won't solve anything at all. It will just lead to bad years sooner. The solution is they have to get better at adding talent, not rebuild.

[cow]

...not rebuild.

Incorrect.  The most successful MBT have been at adding talent of late is through the draft (Luka + JB).  Drafting is no sure thing, especially for the Mavericks, but given the assets at hand and the attractiveness of working with or coming to this franchise, it's the best path forward.  They tried to short cut the rebuild process with KP and the experiment failed.  Tinker with this core and you are looking at years of being a lower playoff seed and a 2nd round exit.  Sometimes you need to take steps backwards to reach your long term goals.

[Chicagojk]

First two mean they have to improve the team. If they are bad at adding talent, rebuild won't solve anything at all. It will just lead to bad years sooner. The solution is they have to get better at adding talent, not rebuild.

I agree with this.  Don't think rebuilding when you have a transcendent talent is smart.    Luka is not going to want to take a step back.  Who knows what he will be in 3 years.   I am not sure if Luka will ever exert the power he has, but it wouldn't surprise me  as he gets older if he does.  Lebron has done it since his early Cleveland years.  You remember when Lebron freaked out because Miami didn't resign a few bench players due to tax considerations?  I wonder if Luka and his camp does the same thing and make it known that they don't want us to lose any player due to tax reasons.   Maybe him and his team also make it known that they expect to play for a championship every year and don't want to take a 2-3 break from competing.  And that as long as he is here, he wants a team who shows the same commitment.  

So, first matter of business is to get your player investments from this offseason playing to the expectation you envisioned. This is mainly Hardaway and Bullock.   Sterling Brown was a small signing and I am hopeful our young guys win his minutes.   But getting the 20/21 Hardaway back and the solid 3 and D Bullock needs to be a priority.  Mavs need to make both attractive assets...for both here and for any potential trades in the future.

Second, Dallas needs to speed up the developmental process with their youngsters.  I am a proponent of having guys earn minutes, but I think giving extended runs to our young guys is not going to kill us.   If you get to the point where you decide a young player is not in your future, then move on.  It is better to move early before the rest of the league finds out.

Third, Dallas needs to get better improving around the edges.   When you have a transcendent player this is possible to get better on the edges.  For instance, look at Milwaukee.   Brook Lopez was signed for 3 million.   Bobby Portis was signed for a low $ last offseason.  Grayson Allen was a cheap trade.  Etc.   Milwaukee hasn't drafted well but they have made smart signings at value deals. 

If you do the above, Dallas will be in a much better spot.    Then you can go for your "all in" Jrue Holiday/Chris Paul trade.   If you don't do the above, that trade could be an improvement to our roster but probably not the final step.

[omahen]

Third, Dallas needs to get better improving around the edges.   When you have a transcendent player this is possible to get better on the edges.  For instance, look at Milwaukee.   Brook Lopez was signed for 3 million.   Bobby Portis was signed for a low $ last offseason.  Grayson Allen was a cheap trade.  Etc.   Milwaukee hasn't drafted well but they have made smart signings at value deals. 

I agree with everything but this. Portis and Allen came after the JRue trade. Before JRue Milwaukee didn't make it to finals, no matter what fringe moves they made. A player like that simply raises your ceiling.

Dallas has been working around the edges for three seasons not surprisingly without improvement. They continue to stick number 5 level players to the role of number three or four with obvious lack of success. They need a bigger move and it doesn't have to be an all star level of player. But fringe starters will not do it, Mavs have plenty of those. I think Mavs are one serious move and one coaching decision (see below) away from becoming serious.

There is of course the obvious stop playing KP with a non shooting big decision. For this they have plenty of bodies, they don't need a trade imho.