MAVS 105, TIMBERWOLVES 111

[mavsluvr]

I have not seen any hate so far, but he simply cannot sit on his hands much longer either.  Surely the new plan can´t be the same as the old plan.

I think six months are long enough to hire your own staff, learn the rules and regulations of the salary cap, understand our own cap situation, analyze the players/roster and formulate a long-term strategy going forward.  Now it´s time to execute.

Well, if one is to believe his interview, it's not. He himself said that he is "just starting to learn" who the team is.

Actually, in his defense, if the job of GM or Team President could be learned from scratch in six months, I don't think people would pay as much for it. Now if the guy were truly an expert at the job, maybe six months would be fine.

[dynamicalVoid]

I have not seen any hate so far, but he simply cannot sit on his hands much longer either.  Surely the new plan can´t be the same as the old plan.

I think six months are long enough to hire your own staff, learn the rules and regulations of the salary cap, understand our own cap situation, analyze the players/roster and formulate a long-term strategy going forward.  Now it´s time to execute.

I need clarification on what your expectations are for how much power Nico holds?

I thought most on this board agreed he was just a figure head that would be used for his relationships around the league...and maybe he understands organizational structure and can bring to the table there as well if allowed.

You are posting as if he is in fact the GM WITH the power to make the decisions he wants and proceed with the vision he has.  I dont know if I believe that as being the case.

[Kammrath]

Do you perceive that a lot of hate is being thrown Nico's way?

Not hate, but no patience to let things play out. 

I think Nico is being scapegoated as an extension of the rabid fan HATE of Cuban. People have no patience for Nico because they actually have no patience for Cuban. People are giving no trust to Nico because in reality they have no trust in Cuban.

Nico is not being given a fair chance whatsoever to prove himself before opinions are being rapidly formed based on nothing of substance.

[Chicagojk]

I've always had reservations about the hire, I'm just willing to give him a chance to do something with the team. One offseason where he had a month to prepare is not in any way enough time for all the hate poured his way. I would've liked to see lots of moves that offseason, and there needs to be lots of moves going forward. I WILL start to sour on him if he doesn't make a move or 2 by the TDL this year.

I am not sure if there is a big move available now.  In fact, I may not want to make my "all in move" now.   I certainly expected better play at this stage.  Although my focus was 1) seeing if KP could stay healthy and be close to expectations of play and 2) see if he and Luka can combine their powers to make them both better players.   Depending on those answers my direction for our big move will be different.   We have finite chances making a big trade, so I wanted to have those answers before I went "all in".

What I will be watching Nico and Kidd is how they improve around the edges.   Starting Powell with this lineup is not the answer.   So what is the next move?   Do they find a C/PF who can be a short term fix?    Can they find another creator?   Neither move will make this a championship roster so I want to be picky what I give up.  But I think there are upgrades to these needs.   Does Nico find them and make good decisions or do we just ride what we currently have?   If he can't find a deal, my confidence will go down even futher.

BTW, man I feel like I am really negative right now on my posts.  I swear I am not that negative.

[Mavs2021]

Well, if one is to believe his interview, it's not. He himself said that he is "just starting to learn" who the team is.

Actually, in his defense, if the job of GM or Team President could be learned from scratch in six months, I don't think people would pay as much for it. Now if the guy were truly an expert at the job, maybe six months would be fine.

I think six months are enough, if you are a smart person. We can also give him three years, he´ll be an expert, when it´s time to trade Luka Doncic.

Would I be shocked if this was just the latest in a long list of awful strategic decisions and Cuban simply hired Kidd and Nico, because of their perceived great player relationships. Absolutely not. It would be very convenient for Mark to blame Carlisle´s bad reputation and Donnie´s lack of soft skills/charisma for the failures of the last decade.

[Mavs2021]

I need clarification on what your expectations are for how much power Nico holds?

I thought most on this board agreed he was just a figure head that would be used for his relationships around the league...and maybe he understands organizational structure and can bring to the table there as well if allowed.

You are posting as if he is in fact the GM WITH the power to make the decisions he wants and proceed with the vision he has.  I dont know if I believe that as being the case.

If I don´t believe Nico has enough power to make these decisions (whether he´s actually good or bad), then what´s the point? The opposite of Nico having full power would be that the same moron is in full charge.

Then you can expect us to dump Reggie Bullock for two 2nd rounds picks,  sign 34 year old Joe Ingles as the DFS replacement with the full MLE, and trade the 10th pick to acquire Terry Rozier as Brunson´s replacement.

[KillerLeft]

Then you can expect us to dump Reggie Bullock for two 2nd rounds picks,  sign 34 year old Joe Ingles as the DFS replacement with the full MLE, and trade the 10th pick to acquire Terry Rozier as Brunson´s replacement.

This is kind of what I'm worried about, too. I know you're intending this as a joke, in part, but the above scenario is similar to what I think might happen if KP isn't moved at the TDL.

I'm about 85% sure that adding salary isn't going to happen. They simply aren't getting the kind of results that would convince someone sane to pay the luxury tax, and we don't even know that Cuban would want to do that even if the results did merit such a path.

[dynamicalVoid]

If I don´t believe Nico has enough power to make these decisions (whether he´s actually good or bad), then what´s the point? The opposite of Nico having full power would be that the same moron is in full charge.

Then you can expect us to dump Reggie Bullock for two 2nd rounds picks,  sign 34 year old Joe Ingles as the DFS replacement with the full MLE, and trade the 10th pick to acquire Terry Rozier as Brunson´s replacement.

I get that the best way to predict the future is base it on the past...

But...if some decent moves are all the sudden made by our front office...I dont know if I am contributing that to Nico alone.  

I am sure Nico will have influence if he has good ideas.   But...I think the spotlight is on the Mavs and they have to tighten the ship.   Pressure is on Mark to prove he can GM.   I assume he will bring his A game and do something decent...at least I hope.   Is that Mark acting from pressure to produce...or is it Nico?

[mavsluvr]

It’s also very, very funny when you combine that quote with Kidd earlier in the season talking about “starter” doesn’t mean anything. There was a bit of discussion about that when he said it too.

---

Also should have asked him if he considers Powell a starter.

I don't get all this Mark Followill hate/criticism. 


https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...70181?s=20

[KillerLeft]

@"mavsluvr" is a treasure. Best play by play guy in the business, and we're very lucky to have him.

[dynamicalVoid]

@"mavsluvr" is a treasure. Best play by play guy in the business, and we're very lucky to have him.

 

Followill is the man.  He and Skin are great. 

Skin took a while to grow on me.   I guess when he started out he was like when Dennis Miller got added to Monday Night Football...but he seems to have dialed in his role and his jokes...love Skin now.

[SleepingHero]

People have no patience for Nico because they actually have no patience for Cuban

BINGO.

However, I'm no better. I really do not have patience anymore to watch what is basically the same exact team 3 years ago around Luka and expecting them to be any better. 

This team took a medium step forward with the Curry signing and a gigantic steps back since the Curry trade. Cuban is a dullard.

[cow]

This team needs to get blown up.  We looked liked a play-in team when we had Luka and that's with KP playing some of the best ball in his career.  And to no one's surprise he's hurt for the second time this season.  

I like KP, I really do, but if Luka is going to have "weight" issues his entire career and if the Mavs are hell bent on keeping his usage numbers astronomical, we need to move on from KP.  If Luka's going to end up being dinged up a lot in his career, his co-star needs to be a little more durable than what KP will ever offer.  

We should call up some of the youngsters (Hunt) and continue to give Green more minutes to see if there is anything there with them.  Bullock and Brown are busts and we should try to get off of Bullock's contract to accommodate developing young players.

I'm already trending negative with Kidd.  He could fix this by removing Powell from the rotation.

This season has been depressing as not only are we bad but we play really ugly basketball.

[KillerLeft]

This season has been depressing as not only are we bad but we play really ugly basketball.

So much this. The ugliness is the most depressing part in the end for me.

[mavsluvr]

This team needs to get blown up.  We looked liked a play-in team when we had Luka and that's with KP playing some of the best ball in his career.  And to no one's surprise he's hurt for the second time this season.  

I like KP, I really do, but if Luka is going to have "weight" issues his entire career and if the Mavs are hell bent on keeping his usage numbers astronomical, we need to move on from KP.  If Luka's going to end up being dinged up a lot in his career, his co-star needs to be a little more durable than what KP will ever offer.  

We should call up some of the youngsters (Hunt) and continue to give Green more minutes to see if there is anything there with them.  Bullock and Brown are busts and we should try to get off of Bullock's contract to accommodate developing young players.

I'm already trending negative with Kidd.  He could fix this by removing Powell from the rotation.

This season has been depressing as not only are we bad but we play really ugly basketball.

I have concluded that this team is going to look like steaming mush until Luka gets back, healthy and rejuvenated. These players were assembled to complement him, and without their engine, they're just a collection of parts that don't make sense. 

Once he is back and on track, I think the team will look better, but I have to seriously consider the possibility, after three years together,  that this group has more or less reached its ceiling. If they had a coach who could squeeze the most out of them, they might not be all that far away. But, tbh, I don't even know whether Cuban really has his heart set on winning another title, like he did in the beginning before 2011.

[mavsluvr]

I wanted to get back to this post, as you have put so much thought into it. 

I think Mavs have several burning questions to answer in the next short term period as we can assume they have a three years window to finalize a contending roster. Start of the new administration is certainly not encouraging. As Mavs have basically same roster for three years, there is really very little need for long term observations. We know what we have.

Yeah, they might be using this time to test out Kidd's schemes and pinpoint what pieces they need, but it's probably pretty clear by now that the roster as is probably can't take them to the next level. 

Defense

First of all it would be wise to admit that this roster is not a small move away from contending, especially not after Kidd entered the picture and the schemes he wants to play. I totally understand GM will not say this publicly, but I hope they have stopped fooling themselves.

I agree they're not one small move away from contending, but I'm not convinced at this stage that the best move is to dispose of everyone over 22 in a fire sale (realize you didn't say it was). It seems like a well-managed organization could accomplish a step up in a less disruptive way, especially with Luka. 

Lets first have a look at defense. I think we can agree the team will be build around Luka. He has his limitations on defense so you have to adjust accordingly. I think Mavs were totally correct in their summer statements you have to put long and switchable defenders around him. Problem is that what they actually did is basically the exact opposite. Instead of long switchable defenders they gave him a center, a center playing PF and being hidden on worst opposing perimeter player (once reserved for Luka) and THJ (not really a good defender). There is plenty of data from last 2 years that shows how Luka-KP-THJ equals bad defense.

I am not denying this is so (I actually haven't checked), but if it is so, it borders on sports-tragicomic. If KP is supposed to be a superstar big man, he should be able to hold his own defensively, at the very least, and preferably be a substantial plus. 

In addition to the trio discussed above, Mavs need to solve the Brunson "puzzle". He is playing great on offense, but is nothing special on defense. He will certainly be targeted in playoffs due to his size. This is especially problematic if he is played next to the trio above as little help can be expected from them. The sample size of all of them playing together from last two seasons is small but not really encouraging. Assuming Brunson will cost around 15 mil per year, Mavs would have over 30 mil locked in two players coming from the bench. 

I am not sure there really is a solution to the Brunson puzzle, but maybe there is. He wasn't playable against the Clippers, and there every reason to suspect that will be the case again, assuming the Mavs make the playoffs. He's too small/unathletic to best a defense concentrated on stopping him, and he's a definite liability defensively. I think he's a great regular season piece, maybe an okay backup for the playoffs, depending on the matchup. I don't think there's any basis for paying him big bucks if he's really going to come off the bench, unless it's in a true sixth-man role, a la Jason Terry. 

In my opinion, Mavs will need to trade at least one of THJ or KP to hope having decent defense.

Such a sad, sad statement. 

Brunson is still a puzzle. 

Offense

On the offensive side the lack of talent has never been so obvious as this year. Mavs can get offense to respectable level but then defense suffers. It seems like 13 out of 15 players can't put it on the floor with hope of resulting in a reasonable outcome. Luka is literally the only player that requires special attention from more than one opponent defender. Brunson is good but can be limited (see yesterday). KP can be defended perfectly well with a more or less random wing as his ability to exploit his size is totally limited. KP is good if he recieves the ball very deep in the paint shooting 68 % from less than 5 feet. When he is further away from the basket it is a disaster. 37 % from 5-9 feet away, 38 % 10-14 feet and so on. All KP post ups more than 5 feet away are a bad possession. Perhaps he is happy, but the result is bad. 

Yeah, pretty much. 

While Wright and JRich could put it on the floor at least to some extent, Bullock has zero ability. I think there are only so many DFS/Bullock types a starting line-up can afford. If Mavs would have three players capable of putting it on the floor together with DFS and Bullock it could work, but for some reason Mavs are playing Powell and KP with them. 

Well, if KP is staying here, he has to be prioritized over DFS/Bullock, in the sense that the role players need to complement KP, not the other way around. Still, I get your point.

I won't even go into how zero sense makes playing Powell (or any other non shooting center) in a system where KP wants to post up on offense. Mavs insisting on this line-up is getting beyond ridiculous. I don't even blame Powell, this one is on the coaching staff.

This is just freaking ridiculous (the situation, not your point), and I really don't know why they are continuing to run this. 

Conclusion

Mavs need to start working as the clock is ticking. Last three years have been a disaster from team building perspective. Whatever strategy Mavs decide to go for it would have to be extremely creative and of course successful. No more room for mistakes. At this point, if a good deal is not to be reached by TDL, I would actually consider a one year tank. Sit Luka for whatever reason, trade a couple of players for assets and hope for a top 5 pick. Who knows, perhaps Mavs are already doing that. The team desperately needs a significant talent infusion.

At the moment, this team looks like such a mess from so many standpoints (owner/front office/coach/disappointing players) that I'm not even sure a talent infusion will do it. But I think I'm just in a funk because with COVID and the injuries and all, I don't see a quick or straightforward way out of this. This team isn't a contender, but they're not devoid of talent, and they should be better than they are. Maybe they will be. 

Thanks for the thoughts.

P.S. This isn't substantive, but I compliment you on the presentation. I have long thought that you made a lot of good points, and that they might get a little more attention if they were paragraphed and formatted so as to be a little easier to read. Great job! (Hope I am not being presumptuous.)

[omahen]

I agree they're not one small move away from contending, but I'm not convinced at this stage that the best move is to dispose of everyone over 22 in a fire sale (realize you didn't say it was). It seems like a well-managed organization could accomplish a step up in a less disruptive way, especially with Luka. 

Thanks for the compliments. I was not implying that a firesale is the way to go, I am actually for the other way around. I was relating to the "we are happy with the current roster" line from the last three seasons. This roster needs talent infusion. I believe Mavs should go all in to do it. 

At the moment I think stop playing a non shooting big with KP would do miracles. I actually started to wonder if Mavs are tanking as they so stubbornly insist on playing such suboptimal lineups. Spread the floor and run Luka/KP PnR. This is the basis Mavs should play imho. Very very simple and proven to be effective. Mix in some KP post ups if he needs them to be happy. I understand Mavs lack one shooting big as Maxi can't play 48 minutes, so I hope this will be a priority before TDL. Second move is to bring in another player who can exploit the room Luka creates or even play one on one to rest Luka. This would give the ability to have two ball handlers on the floor at all times between Luka-Brunson and new guy.

What confuses me is why Mavs didn't make this moves (or at least one of them) in the summer, since it is so obvious.

[Chicagojk]

Thanks for the compliments. I was not implying that a firesale is the way to go, I am actually for the other way around. I was relating to the "we are happy with the current roster" line from the last three seasons. This roster needs talent infusion. I believe Mavs should go all in to do it. 

At the moment I think stop playing a non shooting big with KP would do miracles. I actually started to wonder if Mavs are tanking as they so stubbornly insist on playing such suboptimal lineups. Spread the floor and run Luka/KP PnR. This is the basis Mavs should play imho. Very very simple and proven to be effective. Mix in some KP post ups if he needs them to be happy. I understand Mavs lack one shooting big as Maxi can't play 48 minutes, so I hope this will be a priority before TDL. Second move is to bring in another player who can exploit the room Luka creates or even play one on one to rest Luka. This would give the ability to have two ball handlers on the floor at all times between Luka-Brunson and new guy.

What confuses me is why Mavs didn't make this moves (or at least one of them) in the summer, since it is so obvious.

I consider the FA haul this offseason a failure.  But the small moves during the season will be a good litmus test for this new front office.   I don't think these moves make us into a contender, but as you say there are creative ways to improve the front court and adding a creator that should improve the team.  Possibly it could let us play closer to the style Kidd wants.   I consider these moves short term moves.   And not moves where we give up much in a trade.

The old Mavs front office would have felt like they had Dragic in the bag only to find out a team like the Clippers take a gamble and trades for him leaving the Mavs left scrambling with their pants down.   I think the new leadership was surprised when Dragic option was picked up this summer.    Maybe it is moot and Dragic is washed.   I hope the Mavs did that legwork too.  It would be fitting for the mavs finally to get him only to find out he can't play anymore.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

 

Followill is the man.  He and Skin are great. 

Skin took a while to grow on me.   I guess when he started out he was like when Dennis Miller got added to Monday Night Football...but he seems to have dialed in his role and his jokes...love Skin now.

I still don't like Skin. I get the impression he tries too hard to be funny.

[cow]

I still don't like Skin. I get the impression he tries too hard to be funny.

At the very least he thinks he is way funnier than he actually is.