(04-03-2021, 01:12 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Another wrinkle is that Brunson has a sort of option on his contract this summer. I've seen some places call it a team option (which declining it gives him RFA), and I've seen others call it just an unguaranteed year (in which case waiving him does not give him RFA).
My understanding is that Brunson is in an identical situation that Chandler Parsons was during his third year in Houston.
Parsons was a second-rounder (pick #38) that Houston signed to a similar 4-year deal with only 3 years guaranteed. But because of the particulars of the CBA, contracts like that for second-rounders make them unrestricted FAs after year 4 but restricted FAs after year 3. Parsons was similarly well-thought-of as a young player, and Houston faced the option of keeping him for that 4th year at a cheap rate or making him a RFA after year 3 and retaining the right to match any offer. They chose option 2, but apparently they weren't counting on a team like Dallas offering him a max deal with various provisions that made it undesirable to match. So Dallas got Parsons, and Houston was roundly mocked for letting a good player go that they could have chosen to keep one more year for the minimum.
Dallas is in a similar situation now with Brunson. If there's enough trust on both sides, Dallas could choose to keep Brunson for cheap in his 4th year. That will free them up to focus on other players this summer, and Dallas could go over the cap to keep Brunson in '22. But the risk is that Brunson could also walk away for nothing in search of a more prominent role elsewhere.
OR
Dallas could make Brunson a RFA this summer. He'd still have a small cap hold, they can sign him using Bird rights, and Dallas would retain the right to match any offer. But they'd also end up filling their cap space a year earlier than they planned. And the risk is that another team like New York that really needs a PG might decide to pony up a huge contract that would really hurt to match.
The way he's been playing lately, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Dallas chooses option #2 and pays Brunson this summer. Reward the good player and lock him up. And the odds will only increase if they feel like he's a better player than the realistic targets in free agency.