Jalen 'Can He Play Alongside Luka?' Brunson

[DanSchwartzgan]

That's one good game and two good shooting quarters covering for otherwise bad games in couple of instances if I remember right. He was looking more for and forcing his shot a lot, which is a lesser player than we need (which would basically mean another Burke).

I like his game better in the games after his break. He balanced his scoring and playmaking. More like the Brunson in his first year.

I started to do a big JB thread yesterday morning, but other responsibilities got in the way (so I'm glad this thread was revived).  We are still dealing with a small sample size here (11 games), but Brunson has been FANTASTIC in the aggregate.  

His PER of 17 is third on the team behind Luka and KP.  His On Court and On-Off are second on the team +8/+9.2.  His TS% at .620 (.611 before last night) is second on the team.  But unlike #1 and #3 (Maxi and WCS), Brunson creates his own shots.  He creates 75.7% of his 2's (Third on the team behind Luka and Burke) and 23.1% of his 3's (Second on the team behind Luka).  Yes, he's taking .9 more FG attempts per 36 than last year, but right now with his TS% as good as it is, who do you want taking those shots instead.  Is it "forcing" if they go in?

Another really encouraging thing that I've written about before is the improvement of Luka and Brunson in shared time.  Last year they were a net negative in their time together.  This year (8 games and 89 minutes) the pair is +17.  Brunson is easily Luka's best net rating pairing in this small sample size.  

I used the words "in the aggregate" because if you want to make any criticism of Brunson it is that he's had some really good games and some really bad games (and little in between).  He was excellent against Pho, LAC, Chi, Ind and SAS.  He struggled (along with everyone else) in the first Charlotte game and against Toronto.  But, his only really bad +/- game was -9 against LAL (team was -23 that day).  When he has started and when he has gotten big minutes and lately (January), he's been really good and the team has been good also.  The team has an ORating/DRating of 127/119 in the four games he has started.  It has a 136/119 when he gets 30 minutes of more (3 games).  It is 118/115 in 7 games so far in January (when the team has been short handed).  

Brunson (at least the version we have thus far this season) is WAY down my list of players I want to criticize and you have to look really hard to find anything to criticize him for.

[omahen]

Brunson (at least the version we have thus far this season) is WAY down my list of players I want to criticize and you have to look really hard to find anything to criticize him for.

Brunson is good, personaly never said otherwise. The big question is - is he good enough to be a starter next to Luka? If yes - which two out of DFS, Kleber and THJ are benched? If Mavs don't see him as a starter, than he is way too good to be relegated to play 10-15 minutes per game when Luka sits. It will be difficult to split minutes between JRich, Brunson, Burke and THJ at both guard spots even if we assume Luka is playing SF (which again leaves only a few minutes for DFS).  

It is obvious Mavs have a deep team of solid guys able to step up on any given day. Great for regular season, especially one like this year. In playoffs, the rotation will likely become more top heavy and some of Burke, Brunson or DFS (depending how you want to set the rotation) will be relegated to chearleaders. Before Covid took the guys out, Brunson was playing around 15 minutes per game. JRich was at around 25-30, THJ around 25, and Burke 15-20. If you want to increase Brunson minutes you are basically sending someone out. Not to mention Green and Iwundu were not even able to crack the rotation.

This luxury of a deep team could (and imho should) be spent to improve those heavy minutes roles. Because what is an asset in the regular season will become a dead salary in playoffs. When it matters most.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Brunson is good, personaly never said otherwise. The big question is - is he good enough to be a starter next to Luka? If yes - which two out of DFS, Kleber and THJ are benched? If Mavs don't see him as a starter, than he is way too good to be relegated to play 10-15 minutes per game when Luka sits. It will be difficult to split minutes between JRich, Brunson, Burke and THJ at both guard spots even if we assume Luka is playing SF (which again leaves only a few minutes for DFS).  

It is obvious Mavs have a deep team of solid guys able to step up on any given day. Great for regular season, especially one like this year. In playoffs, the rotation will likely become more top heavy and some of Burke, Brunson or DFS (depending how you want to set the rotation) will be relegated to chearleaders. Before Covid took the guys out, Brunson was playing around 15 minutes per game. JRich was at around 25-30, THJ around 25, and Burke 15-20. If you want to increase Brunson minutes you are basically sending someone out. Not to mention Green and Iwundu were not even able to crack the rotation.

This luxury of a deep team could (and imho should) be spent to improve those heavy minutes roles. Because what is an asset in the regular season will become a dead salary in playoffs. When it matters most.

I think the log jam is in the front court.  It is pretty easy to narrow the ball handler rotation...sit Burke.  The way Brunson gets more minutes is he plays all of the non-Luka minutes and 3-4 minutes of overlap in each half...so 14 plus 6-8.

When the rotation tightens DFS, THJ and JRich get all of the wing minutes.  You can play any two of those together anytime you want.  If Brunson gets 6-8 overlap minutes it means the 96 wing minutes are reduced to 88-90 (enough for the three wings to average 29-30 mpg).  That number gets bigger if you assume DFS gets some time at the four.

KP is a given for 30 of the 96 "Big" minutes.  Some of those probably will go to DFS as we will probably spend at least some time going small.  Maxi, Powell, WCS and Johnson split the rest.  I think Maxi is a given for 24-28 of those.  In fact, when rotations tighten he and KP probably get 60 between them.  That leaves 36 minutes to split among DFS (at the four), Powell, WCS and Johnson.  That is the place where Carlisle will earn is money.

[omahen]

That leaves 36 minutes to split among DFS (at the four), Powell, WCS and Johnson.  That is the place where Carlisle will earn is money.

I am pretty sure once Mavs will come to full strength it will be one of WCS or Powell that will be out of top 10 rotation. Same way as you "solved" the guard rotation. If Johnson is the one who would get benched, than you stagger KP and Kleber so that their is at least one of them on court all the time. KP, Kleber, Johnson and 4th big give you plenty of options how to combine teams. You are way more limited with a rotation of KP, Kleber, WCS and Powell. 

All of these suggests Burke, Bobi and one of the bigs are a luxury. All of them are too good to be just chearleaders. With another remark - there still aren't any developing minutes for rookies.

[KillerLeft]

Brunson is good, personaly never said otherwise. The big question is - is he good enough to be a starter next to Luka? If yes - which two out of DFS, Kleber and THJ are benched? If Mavs don't see him as a starter, than he is way too good to be relegated to play 10-15 minutes per game when Luka sits

I agree with your point (always have). But, I don't think he has to be a starter to have a future here. If he can play with Luka he has a chance to be the 3rd guard, which is good enough to pay, imo. That's a valuable player. 

I agree with your point regarding Luka, Richardson, THJ, Brunson and Burke. It's tough to envision a juicy role for ALL of them. But, as long as there's a chance Brunson can make it to #3 on that list or higher, I'm happy with the way things are. Maybe they trade THJ or Richardson. Maybe they let one of them walk. Who knows? 

I'm not opposed to moving Brunson, either, but at least it's starting to look like he's not in the wrong place, wasting away (IMO).

---

That leaves 36 minutes to split among DFS (at the four), Powell, WCS and Johnson.  That is the place where Carlisle will earn is money.

Man, well reasoned and well stated. 

And, none of us has a clue what he'll do, because he hasn't had access to the full group of forwards/bigs ever, not even last year.

[khaled1987]

No one will be a cheerleader ,except non-green rookies, with this whole covid season.
The schedule is way too tight that injuries and rest are given, and the health & safety protocol thing is just going to lose us some players every now and then. 
If it was a normal season, that is why we built this depth IMO.
When everyone is healthy, I am still in believe that JRich minutes is the one that should be cut tbh, at this moment we need offense more than defense IMO.

[F Gump]

The sniping against Brunson reminds me so much of the sniping against JJB - until he was key in winning a title. It's all about what he can't do, or what he isn't, with little consideration to what he does right (some of which can be hard to replace).

He's not perfect! He has flaws! He's not _______ or _______ .

But so what? The league is made up of players with flaws of all kinds, and the way you win is to take players that are mostly-flawed and find ways to benefit from their strengths while minimizing the other end of the scale.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think that the playoff rotation when everyone is healthy is becoming fairly clear:

Luka (guards SFs) - Brunson - JRich - Maxi - KP

first guard off the bench: THJ (could be swapped with Brunson, but I like Brunson as opposed to JRich guarding ones at this point)
first wing off the bench: DFS
first big off the bench: WCS (the increasing level of hate for this guy is really pathological - he looked quite good in the PNR with Luka last night)

Big minute deeper bench: Burke, Green, Johnson

Little minute deeper bench: Powell (it's not Powell hate, but rather, objectively, Mavs love to put him this low in the rotation, Clutch), Iwundu

Cheerleaders: Boban and the non-Green rooks

[Scott41theMavs]

Another really encouraging thing that I've written about before is the improvement of Luka and Brunson in shared time. Last year they were a net negative in their time together. This year (8 games and 89 minutes) the pair is +17. Brunson is easily Luka's best net rating pairing in this small sample size.

As I've said, this is gigantic like Kim Deal's big big love.

[RDB]

But, I don't think he has to be a starter to have a future here.

I'm not opposed to moving Brunson, either, but at least it's starting to look like he's not in the wrong place

I agree with both points...and I think the jury is still out on whether Brunson can be a starter here (I think he will be somewhere; I think he can be here).  I still look at this as somewhat of a sophomore season.  He may never be a star but I think he is solid at most everything and has the BBIQ and grit you would want on a team.

I would consider trading him but only for the right return as I like him now and still think there is untapped potential.  But I may favor him more than others.

[Jommybone]

I see Jaylen as the second coming of CJ McCollum. No reason to think he won’t continue to improve. And he’s not that far behind CJ already.

[StepBackJay]

Can we rest the idea that Brunson can't play with Luka?

[dirkfansince1998]

I see Jaylen as the second coming of CJ McCollum. No reason to think he won’t continue to improve. And he’s not that far behind CJ already.

CJ made a huge leap in his 3rd season and turned into a legit 2nd/3rd option over night. I think Brunson was a lot better in his first two seasons but he hasn´t reached that level yet. Hopefully Brunson continues to improve but I think he is on a more linear trajectory.
This year CJ has been Portlands best player. He is playing incredible. 27/4/5 , 1.3 stls and only 1 tov. And that´s not even the best part. He is shooting 47/44/84.
Ranks 2nd in the league in 3-point attempts (11 per game) and 1st in made 3s. For comparisation. Right now he is on pace for the best ever non Curry 3-point shooting season.

[KillerLeft]

This year CJ has been Portlands best player. He is playing incredible. 27/4/5 , 1.3 stls and only 1 tov. And that´s not even the best part. He is shooting 47/44/84.
Ranks 2nd in the league in 3-point attempts (11 per game) and 1st in made 3s. For comparisation. Right now he is on pace for the best ever non Curry 3-point shooting season.

...hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you might want to do a quick google search for CJ's latest injury.

[dirkfansince1998]

...hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you might want to do a quick google search for CJ's latest injury.

I think they mentioned that he will miss 4-6 weeks. Not a season ending injury but it could really impact the Blazers chances. Never happy about an injury but it really helps the Mavs.

[KillerLeft]

I think they mentioned that he will miss 4-6 weeks.

Oh. Yeah, that's not that bad. Almost as much time as our Covid guys are going to miss (lol). 

For some reason I thought the plan was to evaluate him after that length of time, but maybe he'll be back by then.

[Reunion Mav Old]

As I've said, this is gigantic like Kim Deal's big big love.

I posted this about Brunson in another thread last week. It is huge that he is playing well with Luka as well as on the 2nd team. I just wanted to note my agreement.

[Fuerza1]

I think the experiment is over. Either Brunson only plays when Luka sits OR use Brunson in a trade. I vote for the latter.

I am starting to feel the same. I have seen the light. It is time to pull the trigger on Brunson, the guy just cannot fit here.

We need a true 3/D elite wing next to Luka. We need Robert Covington!!!!

I mean who wouldn't want 30% shooting from the field, 28% from 3, and 6.5 ppg from a 30 year old getting paid $24M over 2 seasons? What a steal, get it done, Donnie!

[cow]

For a PG, Brunson is to prone to getting the horse blinders on for my taste. His good plays outweigh is negative plays so I'm not going to be too hard on the guy. Maybe he just needs a bigger role.

[KillerLeft]

For a PG, Brunson is to prone to getting the horse blinders on for my taste.  His good plays outweigh is negative plays so I'm not going to be too hard on the guy.  Maybe he just needs a bigger role.

He’s still improving. It’s not like he’s a finished product.