Jalen 'Can He Play Alongside Luka?' Brunson

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm reminded of something I heard Bobby Marks say in a podcast with Woj. The line was "no team likes their backup PG".

I don't think the Luka + Brunson minutes are the right measuring stick of success for Brunson. It is the Brunson w/o Luka minutes. Brunson has the following net ratings with players outside of Luka:

+15.3 In 432 minutes with KP
+12.4 In 500 minutes with THJ
+9.2 In 473 minutes with DFS
+7.4 In 535 minutes with Maxi

The early returns are also good with WCS. What is a little disturbing is Brunson's numbers aren't particularly good with Seth or Wright (+0.4 and +3.2 respectively). The question is whether that is Brunson's fault. It turns out Curry is below Kamm's 5.7 average with everyone on the team except KP. He doesn't produce any better a net with Wright than he does with Brunson and is two points below average next to Luka. Similarly, Wright's only pairing that is close to average is with Luka (+5.1). Wright with everyone else is MUCH lower than that.

It is comforting that we have someone who can play well with the other starters. It is disturbing that we don't have too many pairings with any of our backup guards that have been particularly successful. Is that a product of the bench having to play so much with starters missing games. Is the bench matching the 5.7 average a reasonable expectation?

I think to be fair, Kamm would need to give us the average NBA bench net performance so we can compare. We have the 5th highest Expected Win total in the league based on O-Rating minus D-Rating (we might be there if not for injuries). Do the other good teams get there by virtue of dominant starters and benches that simply hold their own? Or, does the bench have to live up to the team average (as suggested by comparing to the 5.7 team average).

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Thanks for the analysis. I think it's clear on the one hand that Curry's play (especially recently) speaks for itself. The way the team is currently built, Wright is the square peg, imho. Sometimes he is helpful and sometimes not, but I think the biggest issue is the mesh with Brunson and Curry. I think the team structure moving forward he rest of this year is something like:

Luka/Brunson
THJ/Curry
DFS/Wright
MKG/Maxi
KP/WCS

See the problem? Wright is frequently on the floor with Brunson and Curry. He is the largest guard of the three, but he's a guard, not a wing. The ideal solution is to replace him with a wing. I understand he doesn't have positive trade value, but he has high trade value from the Mavs' POV as salary filler, as the ballast of trading a first rounder if the Mavs don't want to trade THJ. The ideal, to me, is to get a three or four, a tall defensive wing with some offensive capabilities who is better than either DFS or MKG, sending one of them to the bench (presuming we're somehow able to keep both MKG and WCS, which I have a hard time imagining right now if both of them succeed the way we want them to the rest of the year, but a guy can hope). I like the idea of AG for something like Wright/Jackson/the 2020 first because it fits that paradigm. Then you have

Luka/Brunson
THJ/Curry
DFS or MKG, with the other off the bench
AG/Maxi
KP/WCS

That presumes we were able to keep MKG and WCS using the MLE (once again, I find that hard to believe! - which means we'll have another hole to fill with the vet min or the dregs of the MLE) and that THJ doesn't opt out. Something like that is almost certainly our squad next year, hopefully with the ability to unload some contracts if need be to achieve max cap space or to sign and trade for our target in 2021.

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BTW, can't recall if it was in this thread or not, but I am still in all seriousness (not rhetorical calling out; I really want to know his alternative thoughts) waiting on Jesusshuttlesworth's alternative plan to AG.