02-16-2020, 04:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2020, 04:42 PM by DanSchwartzgan.)
I'm reminded of something I heard Bobby Marks say in a podcast with Woj. The line was "no team likes their backup PG".
I don't think the Luka + Brunson minutes are the right measuring stick of success for Brunson. It is the Brunson w/o Luka minutes. Brunson has the following net ratings with players outside of Luka:
+15.3 In 432 minutes with KP
+12.4 In 500 minutes with THJ
+9.2 In 473 minutes with DFS
+7.4 In 535 minutes with Maxi
The early returns are also good with WCS. What is a little disturbing is Brunson's numbers aren't particularly good with Seth or Wright (+0.4 and +3.2 respectively). The question is whether that is Brunson's fault. It turns out Curry is below Kamm's 5.7 average with everyone on the team except KP. He doesn't produce any better a net with Wright than he does with Brunson and is two points below average next to Luka. Similarly, Wright's only pairing that is close to average is with Luka (+5.1). Wright with everyone else is MUCH lower than that.
It is comforting that we have someone who can play well with the other starters. It is disturbing that we don't have too many pairings with any of our backup guards that have been particularly successful. Is that a product of the bench having to play so much with starters missing games. Is the bench matching the 5.7 average a reasonable expectation?
I think to be fair, Kamm would need to give us the average NBA bench net performance so we can compare. We have the 5th highest Expected Win total in the league based on O-Rating minus D-Rating (we might be there if not for injuries). Do the other good teams get there by virtue of dominant starters and benches that simply hold their own? Or, does the bench have to live up to the team average (as suggested by comparing to the 5.7 team average).
I hadn't seen this when I posted. Good question and reasonable approach to the discussion. Much depends on how the league views Brunson. If someone is willing to give value based on projecting him as a 30 minute a night starter, then by all means you make the trade.
I don't think the Luka + Brunson minutes are the right measuring stick of success for Brunson. It is the Brunson w/o Luka minutes. Brunson has the following net ratings with players outside of Luka:
+15.3 In 432 minutes with KP
+12.4 In 500 minutes with THJ
+9.2 In 473 minutes with DFS
+7.4 In 535 minutes with Maxi
The early returns are also good with WCS. What is a little disturbing is Brunson's numbers aren't particularly good with Seth or Wright (+0.4 and +3.2 respectively). The question is whether that is Brunson's fault. It turns out Curry is below Kamm's 5.7 average with everyone on the team except KP. He doesn't produce any better a net with Wright than he does with Brunson and is two points below average next to Luka. Similarly, Wright's only pairing that is close to average is with Luka (+5.1). Wright with everyone else is MUCH lower than that.
It is comforting that we have someone who can play well with the other starters. It is disturbing that we don't have too many pairings with any of our backup guards that have been particularly successful. Is that a product of the bench having to play so much with starters missing games. Is the bench matching the 5.7 average a reasonable expectation?
I think to be fair, Kamm would need to give us the average NBA bench net performance so we can compare. We have the 5th highest Expected Win total in the league based on O-Rating minus D-Rating (we might be there if not for injuries). Do the other good teams get there by virtue of dominant starters and benches that simply hold their own? Or, does the bench have to live up to the team average (as suggested by comparing to the 5.7 team average).
(02-16-2020, 04:12 PM)Kammrath Wrote:
Is Jalen more valuable to this team as:
1) Playing 15 minutes per game in the regular season (assuming he never shares the court with Luka) and down to maybe 10 minutes per game in the playoffs?
2) As a trade asset?
I hadn't seen this when I posted. Good question and reasonable approach to the discussion. Much depends on how the league views Brunson. If someone is willing to give value based on projecting him as a 30 minute a night starter, then by all means you make the trade.