Jalen 'Can He Play Alongside Luka?' Brunson

[fifteenth]

Two things that make that incomparable:

1) Luka/KP have been +0.1 better than the team overall (so +5.8) in 790 minutes. They also play VERY different roles and positions that just need time to harmonize.

2) Luka/Jalen have played over 1000 minutes together over the course of two seasons, with training camp and practices in addition. They play the same role and same position, so when they play together one of them is asked to be something he is not.

Those are both great points.

Here are my thoughts:

1. We need a good pg to run the offense when Luka is on the bench.
2. I think Brunson does a great job of that.
3. The team has begun to use other initiators while Luka is on the floor, which keeps Luka fresh, involves more players in the offense, varries the offense, and allows Luka to attack in other ways.
4. If Brunson's play warrants more minutes I think this recent expansion of the offense provides an opportunity for the Brunson/Luka back court to work.
5. I'd rather explore that possibility first before deciding that our good back up point guard is more valuable to someone else.
6. I think if we trade Brunson then we create an immediate need to a back up point guard.
7. My position would change if the Mavs picked up a better point guard than Jalen who could share the court with Luka and run the team with Luka on the bench (like guards in whom we've had rumored interest in the past).

[Kammrath]

Great thoughts.

Look, Brunson's on-court rating is +7.2, Luka's on-court rating is +7.1. But when they are together it plummets to +1.5 (the worst significant pairing on the team). 

I think BOTH are very good at what they do, but I do not believe they can DO that when they are together (or at least have not been able to in over 1000 NBA minutes trying). I love Brunson running the offense when Luka sits. But here is my question:

Is Jalen more valuable to this team as:

1) Playing 15 minutes per game in the regular season (assuming he never shares the court with Luka) and down to maybe 10 minutes per game in the playoffs? 

2) As a trade asset?

My personal opinion is that this summer I would try to use Jalen in a trade to get someone like AG. I think that is the most valuable use of him at this point because again (IMO) I think Luka+Jalen is not something that will be very successful. I also think the Mavs have a "glut" of guards and need to use a guard to get an upgrade at wing.

[Jym]

Great thoughts.

Look, Brunson's on-court rating is +7.2, Luka's on-court rating is +7.1. But when they are together it plummets to +1.5 (the worst significant pairing on the team). 

I think BOTH are very good at what they do, but I do not believe they can DO that when they are together (or at least have not been able to in over 1000 NBA minutes trying). I love Brunson running the offense when Luka sits. But here is my question:

Is Jalen more valuable to this team as:

1) Playing 15 minutes per game in the regular season (assuming he never shares the court with Luka) and down to maybe 10 minutes per game in the playoffs? 

2) As a trade asset?

My personal opinion is that this summer I would try to use Jalen in a trade to get someone like AG. I think that is the most valuable use of him at this point because again (IMO) I think Luka+Jalen is not something that will be very successful. I also think the Mavs have a "glut" of guards and need to use a guard to get an upgrade at wing.

I do feel like it's more of an issue of chemistry than it being inherently a bad pairing that can't be figured out. Both are decent enough shooters and attackers for the fit to make sense.
But I agree one of Brunson or Wright needs to be moved this summer in a deal for a bigger player who could play more. 
For financial reasons I'd prefer Wright going out, but I wonder how much value he really has now. If Wright, Jackson, and our 2020 pick can get us someone like Gordon we need to jump on that.

[fifteenth]

@"Kammrath" Well stated and makes sense. If Delon, or Delon and Seth, or someone else can run the team when Luka sits then I might agree. But I don't want to undervalue what happens when Luka sits, or even injured. How many wins have we added this season because we have a good pg behind Luka?

[Scott41theMavs]

I am on board with trading Brunson eventually, but I think he will look better next year, with some BB growth under his belt. If you're going to trade someone, do it when his value is highest.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm reminded of something I heard Bobby Marks say in a podcast with Woj.  The line was "no team likes their backup PG".  

I don't think the Luka + Brunson minutes are the right measuring stick of success for Brunson.  It is the Brunson w/o Luka minutes.  Brunson has the following net ratings with players outside of Luka:

+15.3     In 432 minutes with KP
+12.4     In 500 minutes with THJ
+9.2       In 473 minutes with DFS
+7.4       In 535 minutes with Maxi

The early returns are also good with WCS.  What is a little disturbing is Brunson's numbers aren't particularly good with Seth or Wright (+0.4 and +3.2 respectively).  The question is whether that is Brunson's fault.  It turns out Curry is below Kamm's 5.7 average with everyone on the team except KP.  He doesn't produce any better a net with Wright than he does with Brunson and is two points below average next to Luka.  Similarly, Wright's only pairing that is close to average is with Luka (+5.1).  Wright with everyone else is MUCH lower than that.

It is comforting that we have someone who can play well with the other starters.  It is disturbing that we don't have too many pairings with any of our backup guards that have been particularly successful.  Is that a product of the bench having to play so much with starters missing games.  Is the bench matching the 5.7 average a reasonable expectation?  

I think to be fair, Kamm would need to give us the average NBA bench net performance so we can compare.  We have the 5th highest Expected Win total in the league based on O-Rating minus D-Rating (we might be there if not for injuries).  Do the other good teams get there by virtue of dominant starters and benches that simply hold their own?  Or, does the bench have to live up to the team average (as suggested by comparing to the 5.7 team average).

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Is Jalen more valuable to this team as:

1) Playing 15 minutes per game in the regular season (assuming he never shares the court with Luka) and down to maybe 10 minutes per game in the playoffs? 

2) As a trade asset?
 

I hadn't seen this when I posted.  Good question and reasonable approach to the discussion.  Much depends on how the league views Brunson.  If someone is willing to give value based on projecting him as a 30 minute a night starter, then by all means you make the trade.

[Kammrath]

GREAT CONVERSATION!!

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It turns out Curry is below Kamm's 5.7 average with everyone on the team except KP.

Yes, Curry's on/off numbers have NOT been pretty this season (-4.1 for the season). I have no idea what the source of that is, other than maybe (??) an inconsistent and somewhat undefined role.

HOWEVER, Curry has been +7.1 on/off in the last 15 games and has REALLY seemed to find a role and groove. 

I think generally speaking ALL the "point-guards" on the team (Seth, Luka, Jalen, Wright, etc) have struggled in figuring out how to play together.

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm reminded of something I heard Bobby Marks say in a podcast with Woj. The line was "no team likes their backup PG".

I don't think the Luka + Brunson minutes are the right measuring stick of success for Brunson. It is the Brunson w/o Luka minutes. Brunson has the following net ratings with players outside of Luka:

+15.3 In 432 minutes with KP
+12.4 In 500 minutes with THJ
+9.2 In 473 minutes with DFS
+7.4 In 535 minutes with Maxi

The early returns are also good with WCS. What is a little disturbing is Brunson's numbers aren't particularly good with Seth or Wright (+0.4 and +3.2 respectively). The question is whether that is Brunson's fault. It turns out Curry is below Kamm's 5.7 average with everyone on the team except KP. He doesn't produce any better a net with Wright than he does with Brunson and is two points below average next to Luka. Similarly, Wright's only pairing that is close to average is with Luka (+5.1). Wright with everyone else is MUCH lower than that.

It is comforting that we have someone who can play well with the other starters. It is disturbing that we don't have too many pairings with any of our backup guards that have been particularly successful. Is that a product of the bench having to play so much with starters missing games. Is the bench matching the 5.7 average a reasonable expectation?

I think to be fair, Kamm would need to give us the average NBA bench net performance so we can compare. We have the 5th highest Expected Win total in the league based on O-Rating minus D-Rating (we might be there if not for injuries). Do the other good teams get there by virtue of dominant starters and benches that simply hold their own? Or, does the bench have to live up to the team average (as suggested by comparing to the 5.7 team average).

---

Thanks for the analysis. I think it's clear on the one hand that Curry's play (especially recently) speaks for itself. The way the team is currently built, Wright is the square peg, imho. Sometimes he is helpful and sometimes not, but I think the biggest issue is the mesh with Brunson and Curry. I think the team structure moving forward he rest of this year is something like:

Luka/Brunson
THJ/Curry
DFS/Wright
MKG/Maxi
KP/WCS

See the problem? Wright is frequently on the floor with Brunson and Curry. He is the largest guard of the three, but he's a guard, not a wing. The ideal solution is to replace him with a wing. I understand he doesn't have positive trade value, but he has high trade value from the Mavs' POV as salary filler, as the ballast of trading a first rounder if the Mavs don't want to trade THJ. The ideal, to me, is to get a three or four, a tall defensive wing with some offensive capabilities who is better than either DFS or MKG, sending one of them to the bench (presuming we're somehow able to keep both MKG and WCS, which I have a hard time imagining right now if both of them succeed the way we want them to the rest of the year, but a guy can hope). I like the idea of AG for something like Wright/Jackson/the 2020 first because it fits that paradigm. Then you have

Luka/Brunson
THJ/Curry
DFS or MKG, with the other off the bench
AG/Maxi
KP/WCS

That presumes we were able to keep MKG and WCS using the MLE (once again, I find that hard to believe! - which means we'll have another hole to fill with the vet min or the dregs of the MLE) and that THJ doesn't opt out. Something like that is almost certainly our squad next year, hopefully with the ability to unload some contracts if need be to achieve max cap space or to sign and trade for our target in 2021.

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BTW, can't recall if it was in this thread or not, but I am still in all seriousness (not rhetorical calling out; I really want to know his alternative thoughts) waiting on Jesusshuttlesworth's alternative plan to AG.

[Fuerza1]

Well, Brunson is at a +6.4 on/off court the last 15 games, maybe he's finally getting in a groove too? 

Probably not. Carlisle has to play the older, higher paid Delon Wright more minutes despite him being a -17.5 on/off court the last 15 games. But I digress . . .

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Brunson + Luka have only played 195 minutes together this season. That is about 3.5 minutes per game, the equivalent of 7-8 NBA games!

Luka + KP, Seth, Kleber, DFS, etc. had highly NEGATIVE net ratings in similar minutes to start the season too. Should we have panicked and dumped them out of town based on such a small sample size? No, we gave them time to mesh and figure it out. 

So the other 800+ minutes with Brunson + Luka came last season on a mediocre lottery team turned top 5 worst team in the NBA post-KP trade. They were both rookies. I think it's too soon to declare any verdict around "fit."

Brunson is shooting 44% on catch 'n shoot 3's this season, 49% since December. He is our second best rim attacker after Luka. He knows how to run an offense. Theoretically, they can work perfectly with one another (they already do fine), I just don't think they've gotten a real opportunity together thus far. 

I believe Brunson's floor is Ricky Rubio, a solid starting PG on a 2nd round playoff team. Rubio was making $14M/yr in MIN/UTA and just signed for $17M/yr in PHX. Brunson is making less than $2M/yr and is locked in until 2022, and we have his RFA rights; that's huge value. 

I wouldn't mind trading Brunson but I think you have to give him plus Luka more time together before casting judgement. I would hate to see Brunson flourish elsewhere then 4-5 years down the line we are begging for another "playmaker" next to Luka.

[Scott41theMavs]

Well, Brunson is at a +6.4 on/off court the last 15 games, maybe he's finally getting in a groove too?

Probably not. Carlisle has to play the older, higher paid Delon Wright more minutes despite him being a -17.5 on/off court the last 15 games. But I digress . . .

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Brunson + Luka have only played 195 minutes together this season. That is about 3.5 minutes per game, the equivalent of 7-8 NBA games!

Luka + KP, Seth, Kleber, DFS, etc. had highly NEGATIVE net ratings in similar minutes to start the season too. Should we have panicked and dumped them out of town based on such a small sample size? No, we gave them time to mesh and figure it out.

So the other 800+ minutes with Brunson + Luka came last season on a mediocre lottery team turned top 5 worst team in the NBA post-KP trade. They were both rookies. I think it's too soon to declare any verdict around "fit."

Brunson is shooting 44% on catch 'n shoot 3's this season, 49% since December. He is our second best rim attacker after Luka. He knows how to run an offense. Theoretically, they can work perfectly with one another (they already do fine), I just don't think they've gotten a real opportunity together thus far.

I believe Brunson's floor is Ricky Rubio, a solid starting PG on a 2nd round playoff team. Rubio was making $14M/yr in MIN/UTA and just signed for $17M/yr in PHX. Brunson is making less than $2M/yr and is locked in until 2022, and we have his RFA rights; that's huge value.

I wouldn't mind trading Brunson but I think you have to give him plus Luka more time together before casting judgement. I would hate to see Brunson flourish elsewhere then 4-5 years down the line we are begging for another "playmaker" next to Luka.

Hah! I can't disagree with just about anything you said.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/MavsPR/status/1352833400160313344

[omahen]

He had a great game tonight. Spurs defense was really bad though.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/MavsPR/status/1352833852704776192

[Kammrath]

RE: Luka + Brunson

So far this season they are proving me wrong. They are reversing the big trend of sucking side by side and doing really well as a pairing. This is a huge and really good development for the Mavs.

Offensive Rating: 113.2 
Defensive Rating: 95.8 
Net Rating: +17.4

[ClutchDirk]

RE: Luka + Brunson

So far this season they are proving me wrong. They are reversing the big trend of sucking side by side and doing really well as a pairing. This is a huge and really good development for the Mavs.

Offensive Rating: 113.2 
Defensive Rating: 95.8 
Net Rating: +17.4

They need more minutes together going forward...

[SwisherPrice]

Brunson has finally arrived. Making that third year leap like JJB did in 2009. Now let's see how far he takes us...worst case he will be an excellent trade piece. Our best asset!

[pompelmo]

I like Brunson's game a lot! He has been a disappointment so far this season, but this is kind of performance I expect from him on a night to night basis. 

I think JRich and Jalen cover for that secondary creator/scorer role.

[dirkfansince1998]

I like Brunson's game a lot! He has been a disappointment so far this season, but this is kind of performance I expect from him on a night to night basis. 

I think JRich and Jalen cover for that secondary creator/scorer role.

He was out. When he was on the floor he was really solid. 12/3/3 61% TS in 21 minutes prior to todays game.

[loki]

I still want to see the Luka/JRich/DFS/Kleber/KP lineup, but it wouldn't shock me if swapping Brunson for DFS is the better choice against certain teams. Brunson has been great lately and it's making me a lot less interested in pursuing Lowry or Conley in the offseason.

[pompelmo]

He was out. When he was on the floor he was really solid. 12/3/3 61% TS in 21 minutes prior to todays game.

That's one good game and two good shooting quarters covering for otherwise bad games in couple of instances if I remember right. He was looking more for and forcing his shot a lot, which is a lesser player than we need (which would basically mean another Burke).

I like his game better in the games after his break. He balanced his scoring and playmaking. More like the Brunson in his first year.