BRUNSON BURNER: to NYK for 4yrs/$104M (no SnT) | NYK docked 2025 2nd for tampering

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think anyone but JB could give us the truly accurate version.


My take on what I have seen, trying to parse through the agendas and misinformation:

1) JB wanted to be in DAL long term last summer (2021) and would have signed an extension at that time (4yrs/$55M). DAL chose not to offer the extension last summer, possibly in part due to JB's poor playoff performance and lowered minutes in the playoffs of 2021. 

2) As the season unfolded, JB seems to have still wanted to be in DAL. But as we get closer to the TDL that becomes a more open question. The Mavs do not offer an extension early in the season and we do NOT know whether JB would have signed one once his play started to explode under Kidd (he seems to have clearly outplayed a 4yrs/$55M contract at that point). 

3) As the TDL approaches the Mavs decide to explore trading JB, being confident they can get a deal they like (and this confidence likely goes back to summer 2021). But other teams get the sense that JB will walk to NYK if DAL trades him away, so no one outside of NYK is truly interested. Then as the TDL arrives NYK backs out of any trade talks with DAL, thinking they have a shot to sign him outright if they can clear the capspace (and maybe NYK knew something definitive at this point, hard to say). So DAL is left at the TDL with JB not being traded and now possibly disgruntled. 

4) As the season ends, JB's camp continues to say (including Rick Brunson...but I should note I do not trust a word he says) that JB wants to be in DAL. 

5) Luka is hurt to start the playoffs and JB has the best games of his life, leading DAL to a 2-1 lead over UTA. Everything changes here IMO. Rick Brunson runs to the media and openly begins to start spinning his narrative that DAL has mistreated JB. At this same time Rick is being hired in the background by NYK as an assistant coach. Then as the draft approaches NYK begins to shed the salary they need to make JB an offer. 

6) A few days before FA opens, word leaks that JB is gone. Then word leaks he will meet with DAL and MIA. Those meetings never happen and the rumor of those meetings seems to be in an effort to deflect any obvious tampering. Cuban claims that he never had a chance to offer. But Skin and others say Cuban would not pay more than $20-22M per year and that was his hard limit that was known by JB and his agent. NYK goes much higher than that to $26+M per year.

7) After it leaks that JB is leaving, word comes out that the Mavs have been aware that JB was leaving for "weeks," if not months. And that when they tried to trade him at the TDL they in part tried that because they knew he might walk. But if he walked, they were still confident NYK would do a sign and trade with them. But DET it turned out was willing to use up their capspace to absorb NYK's unwanted salaries. DAL did not foresee this and got left holding nothing after JB walked. 

It seems pretty clear to me that at some point after the TDL, the Mavs decided on a number they were willing to pay JB and that they would not exceed it. They figured he would either accept that number or they would sign and trade him to NYK. I think the BIG thing that DAL thought would never happen was DET willingly using all their capspace and losing out on FAs to take on NYK's unwanted salaries. That was the big miscalculation and mistake in all of this IMO. The whole plan for DAL fell apart when DET did something unexpected and what I bet the Mavs thought was unwise. I think DAL put themselves in the shoes of DET and said they would never take on NYK's salaries. They were wrong and they are paying for it now.

I think this is all fair.  The Detroit miscalculation is certainly an area of potential criticism.  The other thing I’d add is as early as December, I found reports that Jalen’s number was $80mm over 4 years.  If that was already the number in December, was there ever really a chance he would take $55mm once that was out there. 

I just don’t see it.  I do see an (the potential for an ) emotional response to not even being asked and an even more emotional response to (being shopped as) the reason why.  But, (to me it) was not likely to take the $55mm at any point past the summer of 21.  (Now I do see not offering last summer as) another potential area of criticism.  Even as a really good backup (which is what he was at the time), $13.7mm as an average doesn’t seem unreasonable.  But, as you say, none of us have any idea whether JB would have accepted even that (summer) offer.