BRUNSON BURNER: to NYK for 4yrs/$104M (no SnT) | NYK docked 2025 2nd for tampering

[SleepingHero]

As per tradition, I'm off the board for the day and big news breaks. Unfortunately, not good news. Some quick bullet points:

• I respect all the doom and gloom. Mavs are losing a top 5 player on the team (with arguments to be made about 2nd best, but I have DFS there).
  
• I think the criticism on Cuban is warranted if he truly is lowballing Brunson.
  
• Mavs need to work fast to secure one of the other lead guards on the market. Murray, D'Lo, Mitchell(?), etc.
  

However, while I think losing Brunson is a stinger, it's not a huge blow. You can definitely say I'm going into damage control mode because I never thought Brunson, a guy who has said he's all about winning, would willingly forego his best chance at that to go to a poverty franchise like the Knicks. But then again, I also probably diminished Brunson's ego, and his desire to be "the guy". He made a big deal on Duncan Robinsons podcast about him getting picked last among his fellow Villanova teammates in 2018, as he thought he was "the guy" then. I think Brunson has always wanted that and probably a lot more than we all realized. That was the one thing the Mavs could never give, and for that I just can't be mad. Because in order to kowtow to Brunson's desire to fix that issue, we'd have to be mentally challenged. 


Further, I was perfectly willing to hand Brunson a contract of 5/125 following the playoffs, and even then had some wiggle room in me to go higher. But as I stewed and ruminated I started to come back down to Earth. I kept saying, how many other guards could produce well next to Luka at a replacement Brunson level? Are they all worth more than 25 mil a year? I couldn't honestly say yes.  That made me start to sober up from JB. He's a great player, he flashed some great moments as a fit next to Luka,  but he just isn't worth that money full stop. 

Now before you hurl rocks at me, I understand the logic about preserving the asset, and overpaying to keep the asset to trade still is a viable (and arguably correct) way to go about this.  But to me, overpaying is still a mistake...a mismanage if you will. And the mismanaging of JB as an asset started as soon as he was signed to his rookie deal of 4 years, not 3. The mismanaging was exacerbated when we didn't make him an RFA in his 3rd year, and of course with hindsight we should have signed him to that extension. LOTS of chances. But to continue the merry-go-round of mismanaging by overpaying JB screams to me a panic move.  I don't think panic overpaying makes sense, and I truly believe the Mavs can at least in the short term find viable replacement guys that can allow us to find an even better player than Brunson as a permanent replacement later on. It sounds like plan powder, but the terms have changed and the Mavs are a powerhouse right now having just made the WCF. I think good players will want to play with Luka. 


This feeling mostly stems from me thinking that JB isn't good enough to command "lead guard" money. Some stats;

• Brunson averaged over 20/4/7 on some great shooting splits as a lead guard this year. In fact his stats have always been solid as the lead guard. 
  
• But in the last 4 years, the Mavs are 16-25 with Brunson as the head PG without Luka (yes I checked the box scores)
  

Obviously this is a birds eye approach, and includes our 2019 rookie year where the Mavs tanked, but this is a constant trend. Here's the breakdown:

• 2019: 2-4 (4 games JB played 30+ mins)
  
• 2020: 5-6 (10 games JB played 30+ mins)
  
• 2021: 2-4 (6 games JB played 30+ mins)
  
• 2022: 7-11 (All games JB was the lead guard)*
  
• Add in the 2-1 Playoff stretch and the Mavs are 18-26 all time (33.5 win pace). 
  

Does this tell the whole story? No. Does this undermine the times where JB has carried the team when Luka was out of shape? Yes. Yet, it's still a fact that JB couldn't lead his teams to wins as a lead guard. Whereas Luka DID do that with the same rosters. 19-14 overall (21-18 incl. playoffs) Luka's record without JB. Good for a 45 win pace.

There's a difference even in this crude way to compare guys. At the end of the day, wins matter, and that's why the Knicks are targeting Brunson though, right? Brunson isn't a lead guard. If the Knicks want to pay him as such go right ahead, and I admit I am looking forward to the time we face off against them next year. Odds are the Knicks will be once again at a 30 win pace, and Brunson will be public enemy number 1. 


If you read my essay, thanks. I cut a lot of it if you can believe that. I do admit I hold some tinge of animosity towards Jalen and his choice, but I respect his decision. I can't believe there isn't a conflict of interest given the fact Jalen's former agent, his current agent, and his very own family literally has direct ties to the Knicks. BUT that's a losing battle anyways.

Time to see what other guards are available.