2021-2022 DAL Wins Prediction | Vegas Line: 48.5

[Kammrath]

How many wins do you think the Mavs will get in 2021-2022?

[Jommybone]

48.5 seems crazy low. I guess you have to consider injuries. But wow.

[Kammrath]

Top 10 from Vegas lines....

BRK - 56.5
MIL - 54.5
UTA - 52.5
LAL - 52.5
PHX - 51.5

PHI - 50.5
DAL - 48.5
GSW - 48.5
MIA - 48.5
DEN - 47.5

[Mavsfan12]

57+  This team makes a jump this year if KP stays healthy.  For as much as I am disappointed in not maximizing this offseason by adding a 3rd "star", this team is young and improving - an upward trajectory is in order.  Doncic is in shape and ready to slay.  Bring on the start of the season!!!

[ThisIStheYear]

Best Mavs team since the title year. These guys look good, fit, and deep and they have the second best player in the NBA.  55-60 wins is possible. I think they’ve got a chance.  Would love to see a Giannis v. Luka showdown.

[dirkfansince1998]

At first glance the Vegas numbers are way to low but looking at their ranking I probably agree. Healthy Mavs are better than last years team but not as good as healthy Bucks/Nets (if they can solve the Kyrie situation). Suns just made the finals. Utah had the best record in the west. Seems reasonable to put the Mavs behind them. Not sure about the Lakers. Maybe I am lower on them than others. I have them behind the Mavs, Nuggets and Warriors.
My prediction. Mavs avoid the play in. End up with the 3rd-5th seed. Somewhere in the 50 +/-2 win range.

[Jommybone]

At first glance the Vegas numbers are way to low but looking at their ranking I probably agree. Healthy Mavs are better than last years team but not as good as healthy Bucks/Nets (if they can solve the Kyrie situation). Suns just made the finals. Utah had the best record in the west. Seems reasonable to put the Mavs behind them. Not sure about the Lakers. Maybe I am lower on them than others. I have them behind the Mavs, Nuggets and Warriors.
My prediction. Mavs avoid the play in. End up with the 3rd-5th seed. Somewhere in the 50 +/-2 win range.

Lakers have lots of bettors. Mavs lots of doubters. That’s my guess. But agree with your take.

[Hypermav]

51-52

[fifteenth]

55

[ClutchDirk]

57..

[RedFlag41]

At least 50 wins.

[omahen]

49-50

[Jym]

I don't love the team for playoffs but I feel like we're built to win a ton of regular season games
Very realistically we push for the #1 seed and close to 60 wins if health and covid are friendly to us

[fifteenth]

49-50

What hypothetical win total causes you to ditch the wet blanket? Or maybe an appearance in a certain round of the playoffs on top of a certain win total does the trick?

[MangaAfterDark]

53-29, 4th in the west

[wmffl87]

I don't love the team for playoffs but I feel like we're built to win a ton of regular season games

Agree

I'd probably go 50-52 wins but not bet on them to reach the 2nd round

[embellisher]

Dirk was good enough to guarantee a 50 win season. 

If everything is perfect and preseason KP is for real, this team will win 60 games. 

Reality says everything will not be perfect, and at least one of our top 4 players will miss significant time due to injury. 

Luka is like Dirk, I think at this point in his career, he guarantees 50 wins. 

So that's my answer. 50. Anything less is unsatisfactory. Anything more than 50 is awesome!

[DanSchwartzgan]

I've seen it said the Mav's have the same starting lineup as they did two seasons ago.  The inference is how can they be any better.  Two points:

1.  The bench is vastly different than Curry, Justin Jackson, Maxi, Wright and Brunson (who was under-utilized at the time).

2.  The Mav's were off to a good start before Powell got injured (even with KP slow to hit his stride):

     After 22 games they were 16-6.  .72% and a 60 win pace
     After 31 games they were 21-10  .68% and a 55 win pace
     After 42 games they were 27-15  .64% and a 53 win pace

I think 55 wins is very doable.

[Kammrath]

I was a little concerned that our tradition on here of almost perfect bell curves was going to be lost....glad we righted the ship and got the bell curve figured out. Good job everyone!

[fifteenth]

I've seen it said the Mav's have the same starting lineup as they did two seasons ago.  The inference is how can they be any better.  Two points:

1.  The bench is vastly different than Curry, Justin Jackson, Maxi, Wright and Brunson (who was under-utilized at the time).

2.  The Mav's were off to a good start before Powell got injured (even with KP slow to hit his stride):

     After 22 games they were 16-6.  .72% and a 60 win pace
     After 31 games they were 21-10  .68% and a 55 win pace
     After 42 games they were 27-15  .64% and a 53 win pace

I think 55 wins is very doable.

I agree, 55 was my pick. 

I was pretty discouraged about Rick leaving, but I've been happy with what little I've seen and heard of Nico and the tone he seems to be setting with the organization. He had me when he talked about servant leadership and from reports so far, it seems like it wasn't just talk. And Kidd seems to be not only on board with Nico's leadership style, but practicing it. I'm a Rick homer, but I have to admit, JKidd has been refreshing (I'd like to start a whole conversation about this at some point). 

And most importantly, pursuant to a win total, the team seems to be energized and inspired by all of this. 

These are "predictions" for a reason. Disaster could strike at any moment. But I see reason for hope. And against the tenets of internet culture, I like hope, especially when there is evidence to support it, and I don't find pessimism to be the the smarter approach by default. 

Support for hope and for 55 wins:

• The key Mavs who have been here for a few years have won at a 55 win clip before, when they've been healthy and together. 
  
• JKidd's approach seems to be energizing and inspiring the team.
  
• JKidd's offensive scheme and tutelage of Luka could result in better play and more prodcution from the non-Lukas. (RC's strict roles leading efficiency, and JKidd's free-er system leading to  _______, is a conversation we should have. The season and playoffs will have to prove this one out). 
  
• The pre-season seems to have confirmed the idea that this could be the healthiest KP we've seen.
  
• Our bench/supporting cast is much better than our other teams that have won at a 55 win clip.
  
• Luka now should be better than Luka past.
  
• I think Brunson is on the verge of taking a good sized year 4 leap forward. 
  
• There are signs of an improved defensive scheme (which must be confirmed in real games, of course)
  

The argument that seems to support less wins is based on "this is the same team and JKidd sucks". And I think there is evidence that suggests that it's not the same team and JKidd might be doing just fine. We'll see.