How much is too much for Deandre Ayton?

[SleepingHero]

We all saw the news last week. Suns ownership is mulling over giving Ayton a full rookie max extension that could be worth up to 207 mil. The same extensions given to Luka, Trae, Shai Gilgeous Alexander, and just recently Michael Porter Jr. 

So what gives? The Suns are fresh off their first finals birth in over 30 years. It seems like on paper retaining the same core that led you to the biggest stage seems like a no brainer.

Ayton and his team have made it clear that they want nothing less than the max. So far in his young career, he's posted averages of 16ppg, 10.6rpg, and 1.9 stocks (bpg+spg). He played incredible defense throughout their playoff run last year making play after play against the likes of Anthony Davis, Giannis, and Jokic. And did I mention he's only 23?  Ok so we've established he's a clear up and comer. His counting stats don't paint him as an All-Star, much less all-NBA, but it's clear he is a major contributor to why the Suns took a leap. 

So I ask, how much is too much to give in a potential trade? Is everything on the table? Are we making that trade in mind to create a new twin towers scenario with KP? Or are we pivoting entirely? 

I ask because we have our own unicorn that on paper (and when healthy) beats Ayton in almost every category. I know we like to rag on KP and his defense, but when he's on the court and healthy, he produces. After 2 promising pre-season games where he looks more like the KP of old on defense, I am hesitant to just throw him in any trade. Is Ayton worth it? If it was up to me, Ayton is on paper the perfect big next to KP, as he excels in DP's strengths with fixing his weaknesses on defense. He is an elite roll finisher, as him and Paul combined for the most PnR in the league last season and finished at an average of 1.046 Points Per Chance. He also has a mid range game shooting it at about 50 %FG. 

This scenario is giving me deja vu, as I remember not too long ago Robert Sarver being unwilling to pay then up and coming SF Joe Johnson a hefty extension. Iso-Joe, then 23, just had back to back seasons of averaging 17ppg, and looked like the perfect wing player next to the Suns core of Nash and Stoudamire and Marion. Sarver wouldn't buckle and instead decided to sign and trade Johnson to the Hawks for 2 first round picks. 

I'd be more than willing to trade whatever picks we could. Empty the farm. Give them Brunson, Dorian, Powell (for salary) and 3 FRP's+ pickswaps. That amount of picks is reserved for the only the most elite, so I feel it makes up for the lack of punchy talent from a player's perspective. The Suns get cost controlled contracts and a replacement hustle big to take up Ayton's role. 

I'm curious to see what other people are willing to offer, and how much is too much? Especially considering Ayton comes with him a massive contract extension.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMKr6hvn1nM&ab_channel=MaxaMillion711

[omahen]

I think Ayton is great player but I don't think he is the missing piece for Mavs. While him and KP might work great on offense I just don't see the fit on defense. Neither can guard perimeter and that would be exposed badly in the playoffs. I would rather break the bank for legit 2-way wing or guard. 

If this would be some huge trade involving KP going out with Ayton and that legit two way wing both coming to Dallas, than I am going all in.

[ItsGoTime]

I was thinking of posting a KP for Ayton trade when that news broke. I would then do everything I could to retain all the players from that draft!!!!!

[omahen]

I would then do everything I could to retain all the players from that draft!!!!!

Great idea. I guess a couple of them would not be that difficult to obtain: Bagley, Bamba, Carter Jr., Knox, Brown Jr., Okogie. Also Sexton could possibly be had since we are going all in for this. So:

Luka, Brunson
Sexton, Okogie
Knox, Brown Jr.
Bagley, Bamba
Ayton, Carter

[SleepingHero]

I think Ayton is great player but I don't think he is the missing piece for Mavs. While him and KP might work great on offense I just don't see the fit on defense. Neither can guard perimeter and that would be exposed badly in the playoffs. I would rather break the bank for legit 2-way wing or guard. 

If this would be some huge trade involving KP going out with Ayton and that legit two way wing both coming to Dallas, than I am going all in.

I think Ayton can guard the perimeter quite well actually. He's incredibly mobile for his size and has good balance. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMLHr9pH0YY&ab_channel=ValleyHoopHighlights

Look at him move his feet at 0:23 cutting off Giannis completely and forcing the travel. Giannis is one of the most mobile threats on the perimeter and Ayton just shut him down. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IGp16HM0hQ&ab_channel=XinProductions

Here's some plays of him stopping Ja Morant's perimeter drive, containing Luka off the pick, and guarding Jokic down low. He's as close to swiss army knife on defense as it gets. 

The weakest part of his defensive game is rim protection, at least according to Kevin O'Conner. KP on the other hand has always been at least above average in that area. I think the two would form quite a formidable duo. 

I see Ayton as a guy who can bring everything Powell brings to the table and then some, while also being an All-Defensive team talent. Isn't that what we've been clamoring for anyways as a top need?

---

I was thinking of posting a KP for Ayton trade when that news broke. I would then do everything I could to retain all the players from that draft!!!!!

I would also do a KP for Ayton trade if it came down to it, but the main reason the Suns would even want to get rid of Ayton is because of his max extension. KP is making almost close to that same money, albeit on lesser years.

So it doesn't really solve the problem for Sarver, and makes me think he wouldn't be eager for that type of deal. That's why I added basically the max limit of picks we could send the rest of the decade to make up for the lack of talent. 

I truly think Ayton would be a gamechanger. Him and say a bench play maker like Dragic would make me think the Mavs could win it all this year.

[omahen]

Isn't that what we've been clamoring for anyways as a top need?

I haven't. I think Mavs need a legit two way wing or guard. Think JRue, Middleton type.

[SleepingHero]

I haven't. I think Mavs need a legit two way wing or guard. Think JRue, Middleton type.

I think a legit 2-way playmaker is also a top need. I would rank it over getting a guy like Ayton too, but there doesn't seem to be any available. 

That is unless you expect Portland to crash and burn this season with Lillard forcing his way out. And then in some alternate universe the Mavs offer is seen as competitive...

Ayton is really really good. He essentially upgrades the weakest starter by quite a bit, and provides as good of an insurance policy as you can get if KP were to ever get injured.

[haveitall]

We all saw the news last week. Suns ownership is mulling over giving Ayton a full rookie max extension that could be worth up to 207 mil. The same extensions given to Luka, Trae, Shai Gilgeous Alexander, and just recently Michael Porter Jr. 

So what gives? The Suns are fresh off their first finals birth in over 30 years. It seems like on paper retaining the same core that led you to the biggest stage seems like a no brainer.

Ayton and his team have made it clear that they want nothing less than the max. So far in his young career, he's posted averages of 16ppg, 10.6rpg, and 1.9 stocks (bpg+spg). He played incredible defense throughout their playoff run last year making play after play against the likes of Anthony Davis, Giannis, and Jokic. And did I mention he's only 23?  Ok so we've established he's a clear up and comer. His counting stats don't paint him as an All-Star, much less all-NBA, but it's clear he is a major contributor to why the Suns took a leap. 

So I ask, how much is too much to give in a potential trade? Is everything on the table? Are we making that trade in mind to create a new twin towers scenario with KP? Or are we pivoting entirely? 

I ask because we have our own unicorn that on paper (and when healthy) beats Ayton in almost every category. I know we like to rag on KP and his defense, but when he's on the court and healthy, he produces. After 2 promising pre-season games where he looks more like the KP of old on defense, I am hesitant to just throw him in any trade. Is Ayton worth it? If it was up to me, Ayton is on paper the perfect big next to KP, as he excels in DP's strengths with fixing his weaknesses on defense. He is an elite roll finisher, as him and Paul combined for the most PnR in the league last season and finished at an average of 1.046 Points Per Chance. He also has a mid range game shooting it at about 50 %FG. 

This scenario is giving me deja vu, as I remember not too long ago Robert Sarver being unwilling to pay then up and coming SF Joe Johnson a hefty extension. Iso-Joe, then 23, just had back to back seasons of averaging 17ppg, and looked like the perfect wing player next to the Suns core of Nash and Stoudamire and Marion. Sarver wouldn't buckle and instead decided to sign and trade Johnson to the Hawks for 2 first round picks. 

I'd be more than willing to trade whatever picks we could. Empty the farm. Give them Brunson, Dorian, Powell (for salary) and 3 FRP's+ pickswaps. That amount of picks is reserved for the only the most elite, so I feel it makes up for the lack of punchy talent from a player's perspective. The Suns get cost controlled contracts and a replacement hustle big to take up Ayton's role. 

I'm curious to see what other people are willing to offer, and how much is too much? Especially considering Ayton comes with him a massive contract extension.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMKr6hvn1nM&ab_channel=MaxaMillion711

Nothing is too much.  Whatever Ayton or the suns ask for the answer is a simple yes.  Ayton is a young star, he is 23, and is scoring 15 and grabbing 11 rbp, shooting 60% and hitting free throws.  His ceiling is Joel Embiid.  Max? Yes.  3 FRP? Yes.

[SleepingHero]

Nothing is too much.  Whatever Ayton or the suns ask for the answer is a simple yes.  Ayton is a young star, he is 23, and is scoring 15 and grabbing 11 rbp, shooting 60% and hitting free throws.  His ceiling is Joel Embiid.  Max? Yes.  3 FRP? Yes.

So Luka and Mark Cuban's ownership too?  

I didn't expect someone being even more high on me than Ayton. I don't think he's a Joel Embiid guy, but a Robert Parish with freaky fast footwork on the perimeter? Sure. He's almost there already. 

But again, how much is too much? I find him close to Ben Simmons as in he is an incredible player in the right situation. But he isn't an all-star right now. I don't know if he has another gear to break past guys like Jokic, Embiid, Towns, Gobert, Davis, or Adebayo.

[michaeltex]

#1 - I think Ayton is a fine player that has found a home in the current PHX system. I credit CP3 for getting him to shine. 
#2 - High School, College and Pro careers have all been played in AZ, so a new team would mean really moving out of his comfort zone.
#3 - I'm OK with Brunson/DFS/Powell, but 3 FRPs are too much. We still owe one to NYKs, so DAL would be tapped out of draft capital.
#4 - Just like KP, I predict the Mavs will have buyers remorse with no way to cheaply add talent as this team ages.

[omahen]

He essentially upgrades the weakest starter by quite a bit

I don't think another center should be a starter, at least not in the playoffs. So for me Ayton is not improving the weakest starter. I think the blueprint should be Luka, 3 wings and a PnR center capable of shooting. At least one of those wings needs to be more than just catch and shoot guy on offense.

[wmffl87]

Nah. Save the assets for a wing. 

Bigs are like running backs. Nice to have a good one but not a need.

[F Gump]

Nah. Save the assets for a wing. 

Bigs are like running backs. Nice to have a good one but not a need.

This is where I land as well. (And what a perfect comparison.)

I know the Mavs like to focus on centers and other bigs. But the days when you had to have the best big man possible, so you will have to pay what it takes to have the very best or as close as possible, are long gone. The rules and reffing have been changed considerably, and as a result the keys to how to win the game have changed too. 

So "no thanks" for Ayton at the max. Mavs should be able to get 95% of the impact, from a center at half that price or less. And good playable backups for even less. But a max deal for someone like Middleton? Now you're talking, that's a guy that's worth paying big money for.

[khaled1987]

Only Luka is too much tbh, maybe no more than 2 first round picks which is the most we can give due to 7 years rules. 

Ayton is one of non-Mavs Luka's close friends, share same agent (which probably they have good relation with each other) and fit perfectly for our timeline: can be immediate help and be here for years to come. 

Strange tbh, because I am one of the most conservative when it comes to trade proposals and 1 year ago I would have suggested that Ayton isn't worth it

[KillerLeft]

I'm with @"ItsGoTime" on this one. Any interest I'd have in Ayton would be about him replacing KP, not joining him.

[Chicagojk]

I think he eventually re-signs there but PHX will be intersting to watch the next few years.  If they resign Ayton and Bridges it may take around 325-350 million dollars.  Add this to Paul's and Booker's salary.   If Paul is healthy and still playing at a high level, I have no reason to think they should not be considered a championship contender.   Maybe not one of the top 4 teams, but probably in the next batch.   

The moment Paul drops a little they go to contender to very good team.    That is where things may get interesting with their owner.   I would think someone like Jae Crowder is moved or not picked up in the next year?  Especially with Bridges and Cam Johnson.    

But I do wonder if their cheap owner moves a guy like Bridges down the road if they are not a contender in 2 years from now.   Could that type of move be our Jrue Holiday trade in two years?   

As for now, they are a really good team with a good coach.    But we will see in a few years.

[chaparral]

I think he eventually re-signs there but PHX will be intersting to watch the next few years.  If they resign Ayton and Bridges it may take around 325-350 million dollars.  Add this to Paul's and Booker's salary.   If Paul is healthy and still playing at a high level, I have no reason to think they should not be considered a championship contender.   Maybe not one of the top 4 teams, but probably in the next batch.   

The moment Paul drops a little they go to contender to very good team.    That is where things may get interesting with their owner.   I would think someone like Jae Crowder is moved or not picked up in the next year?  Especially with Bridges and Cam Johnson.    

But I do wonder if their cheap owner moves a guy like Bridges down the road if they are not a contender in 2 years from now.   Could that type of move be our Jrue Holiday trade in two years?   

As for now, they are a really good team with a good coach.    But we will see in a few years.

Dose Crowder fit into out TPE?  And what would we have to send back to PHX?  Would you all do a Kleber for Crowder trade?

Maybe PHX owner only wants to pay one of Ayton/Bridges.  Would DFS plus 2 FRPs get us Bridges at the TDL?

[khaled1987]

Dose Crowder fit into out TPE?  And what would we have to send back to PHX?  Would you all do a Kleber for Crowder trade?

Maybe PHX owner only wants to pay one of Ayton/Bridges.  Would DFS plus 2 FRPs get us Bridges at the TDL?

If they agree on low contract for DFS (MLE range, or slightly more) I think this is great deal for them.
I don't see how it is good deal for us tbh. We kill our trading assets for a young starter who is unlikely to ever be a star. 
Bridges is 25 btw, not even that young either.

[omahen]

Dose Crowder fit into out TPE? 

Phoenix is looking at 150 mil of salaries for just 11 players if they pay Ayton roughly 30 mil and Bridges roughly 20 mil next season. There is also Shamet who they paid a FRP to get. I think the simplest path to avoid heavy tax for them is to trade away first Saric and later Crowder. They both fit into our TPE. 

If they agree on low contract for DFS (MLE range, or slightly more) I think this is great deal for them.
I don't see how it is good deal for us tbh. We kill our trading assets for a young starter who is unlikely to ever be a star. 
Bridges is 25 btw, not even that young either.

I tend to agree. Bridges is great player, much better than DFS imho, but he is not the secondary creator Mavs need. So unless Mavs make some other moves to get that secondary creator, I think Mavs would still need to get one more excellent piece.

[embellisher]

The most valuable players in the NBA these days are do it all wings. Ayton is close to an elite 5, but those guys don't get big money these days unless they're generational like Jokic.

I think Sarver may be right in not offering a max. I don't want Ayton for that either.