(01-14-2020, 12:20 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://twitter.com/All_Things_Mavs/stat...8970708998
Interesting. Theses mid-season, injury riddled, dog days have my hopes a little lower than that. But I'll gladly allow mathematical simulations and projections from bball ref to cheer me up a bit.
Here's the report:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fri..._prob.html
Notables:
- Our projected record is worse than the Clippers and Rockets, but our projected chance to win our division, the conference (!), and the finals (!!) are all higher than the Clippers and Rockets. That's just downright shocking to me!
- They project the Mavs at 52.7 wins and our Eastern Conference doppelganger, the Heat at 52.6 wins.
- The 8th seed is projected to go to the Spurs with only 38 wins.
- BBall Ref has a rating called Simple Rating System (SRS) that makes use of point differential and strength of schedule. That rating places the Mavs 3rd in the NBA behind the Bucks and Lakers.
The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilities are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 7500 times. Although I am not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested: it was used to win the Truehoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.
So it doesn't tell us what's poured into the mix to create the simulation, but based on the results, I imagine that offensive rating plays a decent size role in the recipe.
Fun stuff
https://media.giphy.com/media/NZiVASxQds7G8/giphy.gif