10-30-2019, 07:48 AM
(10-29-2019, 08:00 AM)omahen Wrote: You can't really conclude that from the info you have. Might be, the second unit would be even worse without KP. What the stats show is that Mavs are worse without Luka. And it is not because KP plays with the second unit.
More accurately, the data I posted from The Athletic isn't enough to draw a conclusion either way regarding whether the Neither KP/Luka lineups have been better than the KP Only lineups. It isn't addressed. That doesn't mean the conclusion isn't true. As Fifteenth said, I posted that data through two games earlier. In the Portland game KP without Luka was -16 and the Neither lineup was +9. It was interesting that with the return of Powell, Carlisle went to a more platooned approach. KP played without Luka for only 4:56...much less than in past games. The Neither lineup played 8 1/2 minutes. Both were VERY effective as Luka's time on the court was a -17 in a game we won by 3.
Back to the original point. There is nothing in our small sample size that indicates KP with bench players equates to a Strong Lineup. We do have some data to the contrary and we have a history in recent years where a cohesive bench has been able to stand on its own without the help of a star.
Here is what we do know...
KP has been net negative in 3 of our 4 games (all of the wins).
On the season his On Court is -2.5 and his On minus Off is -17.8
Despite gaudy box score data, KP's historic On Court numbers aren't good...-0.1, -2.8, +0.6 and the current -2.5
That isn't a huge worry for me as his team's have not been good. His On-Off is usually good. I suspect rust and just trying to fit in are contributing to ineffectiveness this season so far.
This season the net of his O-Rating minus his D-Rating is +1. If that holds, it will be the first positive number in his career.
KP is a net negative in two man lineups in every combination except DFS, Brunson and THJ.
Might a KP plus bench lineup eventually be strong? Obviously. Every one of us assumed so prior to the season starting. Can a Neither lineup also be strong? Obviously. Truth is the team needs both variations to be strong as both will play a role (much like last night).