2021-2022 AROUND the NBA: GSW Champs [ARCHIVED]

[DallasMaverick]

I'll start by saying that I love the idea of getting young, cheap talent you can watch grow into successful NBA players.


That said, the draft is something of a crap shoot. I mean the whole thing starts with a bingo game to see who gets the first few picks (as a reward for trying hard to lose). Then teams have to make a decision on who to select, often teenagers with limited time in higher level competitive situations. Who may have had one meaningful segment of the season (maybe for only one season) with no guarantee that represents their real ability (see Manning, Danny). Often a player's image is as much PR as it is actual court stats. Everyone gets all starry eyed about potential.

To paraphrase..."The road to hell is paved with good potential."

It's a lot of fun to discuss and argue about, but most of these kids will be digging into their fall back plans inside of 5 years. (NBA average career length is 4.5 years). Some of them will have a little nest egg to ease the transition, but most will be trying to figure it out like the rest of us. But 60 draft picks calculate as 11.75% of the available league slots (full + 2-way). That is below US annual personnel turnover rates, but throw in undrafted prospects plus incumbents, and the competition can get heated for a few openings.

I guess I'm saying drafting is only successful in hindsight. So I hope the MBT does their due diligence before handing in their selection. If they don't want to spend that effort, then trade the pick for the best proven talent available.

...not to mention the fact that it takes two or three years, minimum,  to figure out if the draft pick can make the transition and contribute, often longer for big men or players that leave college early.  Even high first-round picks rarely contribute significantly in their first year.

So if Dallas keeps the pick, it would be a stellar home run to get a starter-level player that actually contributes during Luka's current contract.

And Josh Green?  He's passed that initial testing period.  He can, indeed, contribute.  His ceiling remains a mystery, but his floor has been established as at least a marginal rotation player.

Wouldn't you rather keep him and trade away the pick?