04-20-2022, 02:53 PM
(04-20-2022, 02:47 PM)michaeltex Wrote: I'll start by saying that I love the idea of getting young, cheap talent you can watch grow into successful NBA players.
That said, the draft is something of a crap shoot. I mean the whole thing starts with a bingo game to see who gets the first few picks (as a reward for trying hard to lose). Then teams have to make a decision on who to select, often teenagers with limited time in higher level competitive situations. Who may have had one meaningful segment of the season (maybe for only one season) with no guarantee that represents their real ability (see Manning, Danny). Often a player's image is as much PR as it is actual court stats. Everyone gets all starry eyed about potential.
To paraphrase..."The road to hell is paved with good potential."
It's a lot of fun to discuss and argue about, but most of these kids will be digging into their fall back plans inside of 5 years. (NBA average career length is 4.5 years). Some of them will have a little nest egg to ease the transition, but most will be trying to figure it out like the rest of us. But 60 draft picks calculate as 11.75% of the available league slots (full + 2-way). That is below US annual personnel turnover rates, but throw in undrafted prospects plus incumbents, and the competition can get heated for a few openings.
I guess I'm saying drafting is only successful in hindsight. So I hope the MBT does their due diligence before handing in their selection. If they don't want to spend that effort, then trade the pick for the best proven talent available.
Sure you are going to miss in the draft, but you need need to hit at a considerably higher rate than the Mavs do currently.
Look at the Warriors and Suns. There are misses, bench players, starters and stars sprinkled throughout their recent draft histories and those range from high first rounders to second round picks. The Mavs have one good draft in the last decade+. If they don't want to spend the effort, they'll never be successful. You can't just build through free agency and trades, both of which are things they haven't been great at either.