2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[Jakeospikez]

So you are hyper focusing on a single year of sample (and not even most recent) and ignoring the rest but I have the lazy take?

Your right that career average is not a great measure, but the point was his last 3 year sample is not any different than his career, meaning that single year looks a lot more like an outlier than any real trend.

There is reason to believe Dinwiddie will shoot better with the Mavs than his career average because he will be playing with another playmaker instead of running the show and he is a lot better at catch and shoot 3s than off the dribble.  But nobody thinks he is going to shoot 40% next season.  I doubt any team is going to be knocking our door down for him based on a 23 game sample.

Nah I meant regression to the mean in general is a lazy take imo. It's used pretty often and when I see it used it just seems pretty lazy most of the time. Not saying you're wrong. Randle may be a bad fit for some of the other reasons, but I don't think shooting is one of em. I'd trust his shooting more than Turners.

How would Randle be as 2nd/3rd option behind Luka/JB being a screener/spacer like the current wings/bigs do now and playmaking after others initiate for him? It's a risk cause of his contract, but the FO was correct on Dinwiddie fitting in pretty well so I'd trust em to make the right move. They're in the WCF with no business really being there going against a team that has 8+ years of exp together with Kerr. Mavs had to ditch the traps on Curry real quick cause he just passed to Draymond and destroyed the defense. Is Draymond gonna be the same playmaker as the initiator on a different team? Also, he was more offball in NO with Jrue/AD, so maybe those are better games to scout.

edit - looked up some roll man stats. In NO:

PLAYER           TEAM       GP     POSS    FREQ       PPP      PTS    FGM     FGA       FG%        EFG%     FT FREQ     TOV FREQ      SF FREQ      AND ONE FREQ     SCORE FREQ      PERCENTILE
Julius Randle    NOP        73       1.4      6.7%      1.34      1.8      0.7      1.1       64.2%      66.0%      18.8%         5.0%            17.8%            4.0%                    66.3%                92.1

not bad at all, maybe he can do it just fine. More PPP than Powell that year even.