05-05-2022, 09:59 AM
Ayton situation is quite complicated I think. Very likely, he will demand a max or very close to it and is probably worth it. Great guy, developed a lot, plays on both sides.
There are two basic scenarios:
1. Phoenix keeps him and pays the tax because the team is great (looks very likely at this point). Phoenix is a team that can offer most money to Ayton.
2. Ayton is SnT to somewhere else.
Number two is very complicated. Ayton needs to agree to sign with whoever wants him. Phoenix will match any offer from cap space teams (it would be really criminal to let him walk for nothing). SnT is the only realisctic option Phoenix lets him go. When discussing SnT, Phoenix will have a basic demand - give me back a good centre on a cost controlled contract, no other salaries (with the possible exception of a great young player on a rookie contract) and asset(s) for our troubles.
There are only a few teams with cap space that have a relatively easy avenue to offer contract to Ayton - you have to have cap space to make a formal offer, everything else is a three party trade agreement (Phoenix, buying team, Ayton). Indiana, Detroit, Portland, San Antonio and Orlando are teams with projected practical cap space next season. Other than perhaps Detroit, they could all offer an interesting centre to Phoenix. Orlando has WCj, Portland could do a Nurkic SnT, San Antonio has Poeltl and Indiana has Turner. Other than them there is a bunch of teams drooling at the idea of getting a star centre and could offer a package to Phoenix. New York could build around Robinson SnT, Atlanta has Capella,... The path for these teams is a bit more complicated and consequently more costly, but still possible. There are a lot of options for Phoenix and might be one or more of them would also be interesting for Ayton.
It is safe to say Mavs don't have a centre that would interest Phoenix one bit. So in order for Dallas to trade for Ayton, the following would be the cost:
- Brunson (because he would have to walk for Mavs to have realistic possibility to be under the apron)
- 30 mil of contracts going to a third team (needed to send away to be able to stay under the apron) - let's say this would be the cost of THJ and Powell
- assets to a team that would send a center to Phoenix and take some of that contracts from Mavs. Lets say they would take THJ (imagine this is Indiana and Turner - price would be roughly 2 FRP)
- assets to a team that would take remaining Dallas contract - a second rounder or two
- assets to Phoenix - at least a FRP
I don't think this cost is worth it.
There are two basic scenarios:
1. Phoenix keeps him and pays the tax because the team is great (looks very likely at this point). Phoenix is a team that can offer most money to Ayton.
2. Ayton is SnT to somewhere else.
Number two is very complicated. Ayton needs to agree to sign with whoever wants him. Phoenix will match any offer from cap space teams (it would be really criminal to let him walk for nothing). SnT is the only realisctic option Phoenix lets him go. When discussing SnT, Phoenix will have a basic demand - give me back a good centre on a cost controlled contract, no other salaries (with the possible exception of a great young player on a rookie contract) and asset(s) for our troubles.
There are only a few teams with cap space that have a relatively easy avenue to offer contract to Ayton - you have to have cap space to make a formal offer, everything else is a three party trade agreement (Phoenix, buying team, Ayton). Indiana, Detroit, Portland, San Antonio and Orlando are teams with projected practical cap space next season. Other than perhaps Detroit, they could all offer an interesting centre to Phoenix. Orlando has WCj, Portland could do a Nurkic SnT, San Antonio has Poeltl and Indiana has Turner. Other than them there is a bunch of teams drooling at the idea of getting a star centre and could offer a package to Phoenix. New York could build around Robinson SnT, Atlanta has Capella,... The path for these teams is a bit more complicated and consequently more costly, but still possible. There are a lot of options for Phoenix and might be one or more of them would also be interesting for Ayton.
It is safe to say Mavs don't have a centre that would interest Phoenix one bit. So in order for Dallas to trade for Ayton, the following would be the cost:
- Brunson (because he would have to walk for Mavs to have realistic possibility to be under the apron)
- 30 mil of contracts going to a third team (needed to send away to be able to stay under the apron) - let's say this would be the cost of THJ and Powell
- assets to a team that would send a center to Phoenix and take some of that contracts from Mavs. Lets say they would take THJ (imagine this is Indiana and Turner - price would be roughly 2 FRP)
- assets to a team that would take remaining Dallas contract - a second rounder or two
- assets to Phoenix - at least a FRP
I don't think this cost is worth it.